Opec sees global oil demand growth reaching 2.25mn b/d next year, only slightly below its forecast increase for this year and almost double the IEA's 2024 growth projection of 1.15mn b/d.
"In 2024, solid global economic growth amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost consumption of oil," Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
The group sees total oil demand hitting a record 104.25mn b/d next year. The IEA, which also released its monthly report today, expects demand to reach 103.19mn b/d in 2024. Opec said almost all of next year's growth, around 2mn b/d, will come from non-OECD countries, with China and India leading the way. It expects OECD oil demand to grow, but only by 260,000 b/d.
For this year, Opec has revised up its global oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d from its previous MOMR to 2.44mn b/d — the first time the group has meaningfully changed its 2023 demand growth projection since February. This puts Opec's 2023 growth estimate 210,000 b/d above the IEA's, after the Paris-based energy watchdog downgraded its forecast by 220,000 b/d today.
Like the IEA, Opec sees most of this year's oil demand growth coming in the second half of the year. But while its overall growth forecast for 2023 was revised up, Opec lowered its second-half estimate by 60,000 b/d compared to its previous report. The full-year upgrade was underpinned by a big revision in China's oil demand in the second quarter of the year, which Opec now puts at 15.96mn b/d compared to 15.56mn b/d in last month's MOMR. China's demand growth this year is now forecast at 920,000 b/d, up from 840,000 b/d in Opec's previous report.
Opec sees non-Opec liquids supply growth at 1.41mn b/d this year, which is broadly unchanged from its previous forecast. The group sees a further 1.4mn b/d increase next year, driven by the likes of the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan. It expects Russian liquids production of 10.3mn b/d in 2024, unchanged from this year.
Opec's forecast call on its own members' crude for this year has been revised up by 120,000 b/d compared to last month's MOMR, and now stands at 29.42mn b/d. The group produced 28.19mn b/d of crude last month, up by around 90,000 b/d compared with May, according to an average of secondary sources, which include Argus. Opec production is set for a sizeable fall this month, driven by a unilateral 1mn b/d cut from Saudi Arabia.
