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EIA sees higher US oil output in 2023, 2024

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 12/09/23

US crude production next year will average about 70,000 b/d more than previously forecast, helping to further offset declining output from Opec+ countries, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Domestic crude production will average 13.16mn b/d next year, the EIA said today in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, up from 13.09mn b/d in last month's forecast.

For this year, the agency increased its US output forecast to 12.78mn b/d, up from 12.76mn b/d expected a month ago.

But the EIA slightly reduced its outlook for global production of crude and liquid fuels, which it now sees at 101.18mn b/d this year, down from 101.3mn b/d previously, and 102.88mn b/d in 2024, down from 103mn b/d in the prior forecast.

Still, total global liquid fuels production is expected to increase by 1.2mn b/d this year and by 1.7mn b/d next year, driven by gains in the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, the EIA said. Opec+ crude production is expected to fall by 800,000 b/d this year and increase by 400,000 b/d next year, while Russian output will drop by 300,000 b/d this year and hold steady in 2024, the agency predicted.

Opec+ production cuts are expected to keep global output below demand, resulting in a 600,000 b/d draw on global stocks in the current quarter and a 200,000 b/d drawdown in the fourth quarter, pressuring oil prices.

The EIA increased its forecasts for crude prices, raising the 2023 outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $79.65/bl, up by $1.86/bl from last month's outlook. WTI price expectations for 2024 were bumped up by $1.74/bl to $83.22/bl.

Brent prices were raised by a similar amount, now forecast to average $84.46/bl in 2023 and $88.22/bl in 2024.

Global crude and light fuels consumption is expected to average 100.97mn b/d this year, lower than the 101.19mn b/d previously projected. Global demand in 2024 is projected to be 102.33mn b/d, down from 102.8mn b/d forecast last month.

Expectations for US consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2023 was lowered to 20.1mn b/d, down from 20.5mn b/d in last month's forecast, partly because the EIA reclassified some volumes to address growing "adjustment factors" in its data. Domestic consumption projections for 2024 were lowered to 20.3mn b/d from 20.7mn b/d.

By Brett Holmes

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12/12/25

Seized oil tanker likely heading to Houston

Seized oil tanker likely heading to Houston

New York, 12 December (Argus) — The US-seized oil tanker Skipper, carrying Venezuelan oil, is en route to Houston, Texas, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. If Houston is the very-large crude carrier's final destination, it will likely discharge the 1.9mn bls of Merey crude it is carrying via lightering offshore since Houston-area ports are too shallow to allow such a large ship dock to offload at an onshore terminal. The US seized the falsely-flagged Skipper on 10 December for its alleged involvement in smuggling Iranian oil to support Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard. But the seizure is widely seen as an extension of ongoing efforts by the US to pressure the Venezuelan government over the flow of drugs from the country. The US said it intends to seize other tankers on existing sanctions lists that are carrying Venezuelan crude. The US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela since September as part of an effort ostensibly aimed at stopping waterborne drug shipments. The seizure of the Skipper has not had any clear effect on freight or crude markets so far, but more seizures and Caracas' response could change that. The US tried to pressure Iran through ship seizures from 2019-24, seizing a total of nine tankers, including four vessels in 2020 that were due to deliver Iranian gasoline cargoes to Venezuela. The US discontinued the practice because Tehran retaliated by seizing tankers passing through or near the strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Mideast Gulf. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government calls the seizure of the Skipper "an act of international piracy", but Caracas may not have the same capability to retaliate as Tehran. It could block loadings by Chevron, which is importing oil to the US under a sanctions waiver that the US reissued in August. Exports to the US, shipped under Chevron's waiver, stood at about 130,000 b/d in November, down from 150,000 b/d in October. By Charlotte Bawol and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s energy demand falls on economic slowdown

12/12/25
News
12/12/25

Japan’s energy demand falls on economic slowdown

Osaka, 12 December (Argus) — Japan's energy consumption in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year fell again from a year earlier, pressured by slower industry activity. The country's 2024-25 final energy use totalled 292mn kiloliters, or 1.84bn bl of oil equivalent (boe), down by 1.7pc from a year earlier, according to preliminary data released on 12 December by the trade and industry ministry Meti. This marks the third consecutive annual decline. Coal use in final energy consumption fell by 3.7pc from a year earlier to 172mn boe in 2024-25, while oil demand declined by 3.7pc to 841mn boe. This came as energy consumption in the manufacturing and transportation sectors declined by 3.2pc to 766mn boe, and by 1.5pc to 445mn boe respectively. But demand for natural gas and city gas rose by 1.5pc from a year earlier to 167mn boe. Power demand also edged up by 1pc to 517mn boe. Coal-fired power generation edged up by 0.9pc to 283.4TWh during the period, while oil- and gas-fired power dropped by 2.7pc to 71TWh and by 2.4pc to 315.7TWh. Zero-emission power supplies, including renewables and nuclear power, rose by 3.9pc to 322.1TWh. Japan's energy-derived CO2 emissions fell by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 908mn t in 2024-25, supported by the increased use of renewable and nuclear power supplies. The 2024-25 emissions represented a 26pc fall compared with the country's 2013-14 baseline, or the lowest level since 1990-91. The lower energy consumption, as well as increased use of domestic renewable and nuclear energy, helped lift Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate to 16.4pc in 2024-25, up by 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, based on International Energy Agency methodology. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

More than 30 sanctioned tankers in Venezuela

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

More than 30 sanctioned tankers in Venezuela

New York, 11 December (Argus) — More than 30 tankers could be within the reach of US naval forces positioned near Venezuela if Washington decides to continue seizing ships on its sanctions list. "There are 37 undeparted OFAC-designated tankers currently in Venezuela," Samir Madani, chief executive of independent vessel tracking service Tanker Trackers, told Argus — referring to the Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). "Maybe one or two departed recently, but that's the ballpark for now, at least." The US seized the tanker Skipper on 10 December, saying it was on the OFAC sanctions list. The ship was falsely carrying the Guyana flag , Guyana's maritime agency Marad said, but was flying the Panama flag up until 2023, according to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) database. The tanker was transmitting falsified AIS positions to conceal its location, according to Kpler. Tanker Trackers estimated it to be laden with around 1.85mn barrels of Merey-16 crude. The ship had sailed as Adisa starting in 2021 before being renamed the Skipper . The US sanctioned the tanker in 2022 for its alleged involvement in an international oil smuggling network that blended and exported Iranian oil in support of Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Former names for Skipper include the Toyo , the name it adopted in 2005, and Maera , the name it changed to in 2019, according to the IMO registry. Overall shipping operations in the Caribbean region today seem fairly normal and freight rates in the region are steady, according to shipbrokers. Chevron resumed imports of Venezuelan crude to the US in August following the reinstatement of its sanctions waiver . More sanctions Separately, the US Treasury Department on Thursday announced sanctions on six tankers — White Crane, Kiara M, H Constance, Lattafa, Tamia and Monique — and six shipping companies it said transported Venezuelan crude in recent months. Treasury last targeted specifically Venezuela-linked tankers in January 2021. The White House said more tankers could be seized. "We're not going to stand by and watch sanctioned vessels sail the seas with black market oil, the proceeds of which will fuel narcoterrorism of rogue and illegitimate regimes around the world," it said. Fewer tankers The number of irregular tankers off the coast of Venezuela already declined in November for the first time since one non-governmental organization began measuring them in July. Tankers identified as likely to be moving sanctioned crude or other products from Venezuela dropped to 17 in November, from 24 in October, the Venezuelan chapter in exile of Transparency International said on Thursday. The figures are based on a narrower set of criteria than the Tanker Trackers figures. The group estimated there were about 12 that arrived in July. But about 41pc of traffic at Venezuela's oil ports still includes sanctioned or otherwise suspect vessels, the group estimated. The presence of all types of oil tankers offshore of Venezuela also declined slightly in November, to 98 from 112 in October. By Charlotte Bawol and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

IEA ups global crude runs forecast, driven by OECD

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

IEA ups global crude runs forecast, driven by OECD

London, 11 December (Argus) — The IEA has increased its forecast for global refinery runs for 2026, driven by a rise in OECD runs in response to strong refining economics, continuing loss of Russian supply of products and a growing global crude oil surplus. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the agency increased its forecast for global crude runs in 2026 by 250,000 b/d to 84.4mn b/d. The IEA predicts crude runs in the OECD of 36.2mn b/d next year, up from 35.6mn b/d in its previous OMR. That increase means the organisation forecasts that OECD runs will drop by only 110,000 b/d on the year in 2026, despite an overall 860,000 b/d drop in OECD refining capacity in 2025-26. Strong refining margins particularly boosted European throughput in October, and the IEA expects that to continue into next year. Refinery profitability has reached the highest in recent weeks since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, caused by strong rises in crude supply and unexpected tightness in product markets, especially in middle distillates and gasoline. European throughput will reach 95pc of capacity next year, the IEA said. The IEA nudged up forecast runs in OECD Americas by 180,000 b/d to 19.2mn b/d. Higher refining margins should boost US throughput in the first half of next year, with further support found from increasing reliability in Mexican refineries. The IEA forecasts non-OECD runs at 48.2mn b/d, down from 48.5mn b/d in its previous report. Delays to the start-up of refineries in India, Iran and Angola — as well as ongoing works at KPC's al Zour refinery in Kuwait — weighed on forecast throughput. The body trimmed its forecast for Chinese runs in 2026, but said higher floating inventories of cheaper Russian and Iranian crude in Asia could cause Chinese runs and exports to rise next year. Predicted Eurasian runs held steady at 6.1mn b/d despite throughput falling to a three-year low in October. Preliminary reports suggest Russian runs recovered in November, the IEA said. Diesel supplies by pipeline for export from Russian ports could rise by 20pc on the month to 2.1mn t in December, traders said. Sanctions could provide further support to margins in 2026, the IEA said. That includes US sanctions on Russian and Iranian exports, as well as EU sanctions on products derived from Russian crude. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Seized oil tanker 'falsely' carrying Guyana flag

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

Seized oil tanker 'falsely' carrying Guyana flag

Kingston, 11 December (Argus) — An oil tanker seized by the US off Venezuela's coast on Wednesday was falsely carrying the Guyana flag, Guyana's maritime agency Marad said. The very large crude carrier Skipper is part of "the proliferation of an unacceptable trend of the unauthorized use of the Guyana Flag by vessels that are not registered in Guyana," Marad said. The ship was seized as a large US naval force remains stationed offshore Venezuela that Washington said is intended to stop drug shipments. Venezuela has protested against the naval presence, saying is intended to topple the administration of president Nicolas Maduro, and called the seizure of the ship "an act of international piracy." The US told Marad it encountered Skipper , which has gone by other names and has been used in moving sanctioned Iranian crude, in international waters, Marad said. The ship appeared to be destined for Cuba before the seizure, but since then has been moving slowly to the northwest and is showing a destination of Georgetown, Guyana. Marad said it will continue to work with other organizations and governments to identify and take action against unauthorized use of the Guyana flag. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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