Playing as the champion of the global south, India scored successes in energy, climate, development and geopolitics, writes Bachar Halabi and Pranav Joshi
The spectre of failure weighed heavily on Delhi as India prepared to host leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies at this year's G20 summit on 9-10 September — a prospect heightened by the Russian and Chinese presidents' decision to skip the event. At stake was the risk of India being the first-ever host country unable to issue a summit declaration. With India's prime minister Narendra Modi setting high expectations on the gathering, anything short of a consensus declaration would have resulted in major embarrassment and a blow to the country's growing prestige on the global stage. Modi is also preparing for a general election next year in a bid to extend his and his party's tenure in power in India.
But it appears the prime minister saw in a deeply divided world an opportunity for his and his country's ambitions, rather than an obstacle. A newly confident India is competing with China for leadership of what has come to be called the "global south". India is presenting itself as a different kind of leader for developing countries, one that speaks to both the east and west but is better positioned than China to "extract" concessions from the west. Modi also saw, in the success of the G20 summit, a springboard that could catapult India into becoming a global heavyweight on issues relating to the global economy, development programmes, climate and geopolitics.
With the G20 Delhi Leaders' Declaration issued on the very first day of the summit, the Indian prime minister managed to pull off a political coup that stunned many. This success, however, would not have been achievable without the backing of western partners deeply invested in Modi's success. The US, in particular, sees in India a partner and a bulwark against China's rising global influence. The administration of President Joe Biden identified China as "America's most consequential geopolitical challenge" in its 2022 National Security Strategy. Biden's courting of Modi was in full effect in Delhi, with the two leaders appearing side by side in most of the broadcast footage.
But the courting seems to have come at a considerable price, specifically for Europe. The adopted consensus declaration omitted any condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in contrast to last year's Bali G20 summit. Instead, the Delhi declaration lamented the "suffering" of the Ukrainian people and called on all states not to use force to seize territory. India said it worked closely with Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia to reach a consensus on the language. While Russia was left happy with this outcome, for the west, the higher motive remains to maintain the multilateral organisations or avenues that are part and parcel of the world order it dominates.
Gaming the great power competition
President Xi Jinping's first absence from a G20 summit, however, calls into question China's commitment to those organisations as competition with the US intensifies. For India, the situation offers a win-win, as it also remains a top beneficiary from the Ukraine war in energy terms, hoarding Russian crude at major discounts.
The admission of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member to the G20 stood out as the most tangible diplomatic achievement of India's campaign to lead the global south. Modi wrote to G20 leaders in June asking them to admit the AU. By bringing Africa to the table on an equal footing to the European Union, not only does India take credit for making the group more inclusive but also stakes its claim to be the voice of the global south and its economic concerns.
The US also had its share of success at the G20 summit as President Biden aimed to take advantage of the absence of his Russian and Chinese counterparts. The official signing of the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) strategically represented a grand slam for the US and the EU. The multinational rail and shipping corridor will connect south Asia to the Middle East and Europe, and reshape Eurasian connectivity. It was mooted ostensibly as a counter to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and is also potentially a move to dissipate the economic impact of an enlarged Brics grouping that could soon include leading Opec oil producers Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran.
The planned corridor's passage through Jordan and Israel could also support the Biden administration's efforts to build on the recent normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, as it pushes Saudi Arabia to follow suit and formalise ties.
Perhaps more significantly, Biden arrived with the aim of turning the page to restart economic and strategic relations with the developing world on a more just footing. He led a major initiative to fundamentally reshape and scale up the World Bank. The Delhi declaration's inclusion of new language on the issue of global debt, overhauling the World Bank to address the growing economic strains on poorer countries, and a push for more financing to help vulnerable nations deal with the costs of dealing with climate change, achieved that. It showed agreement on raising investment in energy transition and climate finance from "billions to trillions" of dollars, albeit without setting any targets.
Summit fails the emissions test
India achieved a delicate balancing act on emissions control and energy transition, securing unprecedented unanimity on concrete targets but without firm commitments on timelines that would prove challenging, especially to developing countries. G20 members agreed for the first time to work towards tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, a consensus that was sorely lacking at the G20 energy ministers' meeting in Goa in July. But their declaration failed to achieve a firm commitment to this target, merely agreeing to pursue such a strategy.
Critically, but predictably, the declaration did not commit to a phase-out of fossil fuels, with the need for consensus likely relegating the issue to the back burner. "The agreement to triple renewable energy globally will be a huge boost to the clean energy sector if it can be matched with technology and finance," consultancy Climate Trends said. "But it was a missed opportunity not to complement the positive language on tripling renewable energy with a clear commitment to end new unabated coal power projects immediately," climate think tank E3G's fossil fuel transition team programme lead Camilla Fenning told Argus.
Instead, the declaration contained only a single reference to coal, agreeing to accelerate "efforts towards phasedown of unabated coal power in line with national circumstances". India is a key consumer of coal for power generation.
The declaration supported a target of cutting emissions by 43pc by 2030 relative to 2019 levels — itself not a new target, but significant in securing the support of Saudi Arabia for the first time. Language supporting a peak in emissions before 2025 leaves the door open for countries to continue using fossil fuels. Developing countries such as India face rising domestic need for coal, oil and gas.
A report by the IEA, the International Renewable Energy Agency and the UN on 14 September said there was insufficient progress on energy transition over the last year. The Breakthrough Agenda report called on governments to "strengthen collaboration in key areas — such as standards and regulation, financial and technical assistance and market creation — to turbocharge the transition". All eyes are now on the Cop 28 summit in the UAE later this year, where, as India's G20 summit has shown, the developed world will be expected to do more to accommodate the needs of the global south.
