Constrained German supply meets demand, could tighten
Ongoing refinery maintenance and repeated plant outages have not led to a diesel supply shortage in Germany yet, but Russia's export ban might indirectly reduce product availability in the coming weeks.
The rise in diesel sales last week was largely the result of increased domestic agricultural demand from ongoing maize and potato harvests in Germany. Declining industrial diesel tank levels, according to Argus data, also indicate heightened fuel consumption by farmers.
While the volume of diesel trades submitted to Argus rose by 21pc week on week, product availability remains strong. This suggests that despite ongoing maintenance at the 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery and the 103,000 b/d Hamburg refinery, and two plant outages at the 207,000 b/d Bayernoil refinery, supply in Germany is still adequate to meet demand.
Traders expect middle distillate demand to increase further in the coming month. Companies in Germany usually start stocking up with diesel around mid-October ahead of a mandated switch to winter specifications on 15 November. On top of that, a significant increase in Germany's CO2 price as well as its GHG quotas from January 2024 is likely to encourage buyers to stock up on middle distillate before the end of the year.
Since diesel exports from the US to Europe are expected to rise in October because of profitable arbitrage economics, any additional German demand should have been met by higher import volumes via the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub (ARA). Water levels on the Rhine are currently only permitting barge loadings of up to around 60pc capacity for destinations along the Upper Rhine. Water levels are forecast to fall continuously until the end of the first week in October, further restricting barge loadings and making imports via the Rhine more costly.
At the same time, diesel flows into Europe could be negatively affected by Russia's 21 September announcement of a ban on diesel and gasoline exports, aimed at stabilising its domestic fuel market. The extent to which the export ban will actually reduce the availability of diesel in Europe in the coming weeks mainly depends on how long the ban stays in effect, according to traders. Another factor is the quantity of non-US diesel that finds its way to Europe during the ban as countries including Turkey, which previously imported Russian diesel and thus shipped their own production elsewhere, may now reduce their exports.
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Auge de nearshoring en México depende del 2024
Auge de nearshoring en México depende del 2024
Mexico City, 20 February (Argus) — Las políticas energéticas de México durante este año de elecciones presidenciales ayudarán a determinar si el país está preparado para alcanzar el tan ansiado auge del nearshoring, ya que se espera que el desarrollo de parques industriales se expanda en 2024. México podría exportar cerca de $168 mil millones adicionales entre 2023 y 2028 como resultado de la tendencia de trasladar cadenas de producción más cerca de EE.UU. para evitar retrasos logísticos como los observados durante la pandemia, dijo Alejandro Cervantes Llamas, jefe de investigación cuantitativa del banco mexicano Banorte. Pero la mayor parte de estas exportaciones fluirán durante los últimos tres años de dicho período, una vez que las instalaciones y la infraestructura industrial planificadas sean operativas. Alrededor de $10 mil millones adicionales del total de $168 mil millones en exportaciones llegaron en 2023, añadió Banorte. Mientras tanto, la Cámara de Comercio Internacional (CCI) estima que México verá $38.6 millones de inversión extranjera directa relacionada con el nearshoring en 2024. Hasta el momento solo se ha anunciado 40pc del desarrollo esperado, pero es probable que surjan más proyectos en 2024, dijo Ramsé Gutiérrez, vicepresidente de asesoramiento financiero de inversiones Franklin Templeton México. Sin embargo, el éxito del nearshoring depende de la capacidad que tenga México para proporcionar a la industria en auge la infraestructura necesaria, especialmente electricidad y gas natural, lo que a su vez impulsaría a la demanda de combustibles para motores. La demanda de importaciones de gas por parte de México aumentará de 7.8 Bcf/d en 2023 a 9.3 Bcf/d en 2026, según un estudio realizado por el operador estatal de gasoductos Cenagas el año pasado. Energía para el nearshoring México también necesita invertir $116.8 mil millones — $7.78 mil millones/año en promedio durante los próximos 15 años — en generación y distribución de energía para satisfacer la creciente demanda, de acuerdo con un informe reciente de CCI Mexico. El informe sostiene que, con un crecimiento anual del PIB de 2.4pc, México necesita construir 58,900km de líneas de transmisión y añadir 34.5 GW en capacidad de generación nueva, así como 14.1 GW en capacidad de generación de sustitución hasta 2037. Las estimaciones se basan en factores de carga de 87pc ciclo combinado de gas, de 25pc para plantas solares y 38pc para generación eólica. Además, México necesita otros 800km de líneas/año por punto de crecimiento adicional del PIB. También debe desarrollar una industria alrededor del Corredor Interoceánico del Istmo de Tehuantepec con enlaces ferroviarios, carreteros y gasoductos desde el océano Pacífico hasta el Golfo de México, así como en la península de Yucatán, dijo Osmar Zavaleta, decano asociado de investigación en la Escuela de Negocios Tec de Monterrey. Pero esto será un reto continuo, dado que las empresas extranjeras tienen profundos compromisos con las energías renovables, en tanto que las iniciativas gubernamentales de los últimos años han dificultado el desarrollo de proyectos solares y eólicos privados. Los proyectos de generación solar han experimentado un auge en los últimos años, a medida que la regulación presiona a los proyectos más grandes del sector privado. Este segmento menos regulado está limitado a una capacidad de generación de 500 kW. Sergio Arguelles, presidente de la Asociación Mexicana de Parques Industriales, lleva más de un año y medio ejerciendo presión sobre las autoridades mexicanas para aumentar la energía renovable autogenerada permitida a más de 500 kW. Con las elecciones presidenciales de México previstas para junio, tanto la candidata Claudia Sheinbaum como su principal competidora Xóchitl Gálvez han indicado su apoyo al crecimiento acelerado de las energías renovables para el próximo periodo presidencial de seis años que finaliza en 2030. Con Sheinbaum, quien encabeza las recientes encuestas con una ventaja de dos dígitos, es más probable ver el crecimiento de la capacidad verde impulsado por la empresa estatal de electricidad CFE, mientras que Gálvez apoya una mayor participación del sector privado. Otro reto al que se enfrenta México sigue siendo la inseguridad, especialmente en los estados fronterizos del norte, donde la inversión extranjera directa más fluida dependerá de la capacidad del gobierno para controlar a las organizaciones criminales de la región. Por James Young Send comments and request more information at firstname.lastname@example.org Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Marine fuel global weekly market update
Marine fuel global weekly market update
New York, 20 February (Argus) — A weekly Argus news digest of interest to the conventional and alternative marine fuel markets. To speak to our team about accessing the stories below and access to Argus Marine Fuels , please contact email@example.com. Alternative marine fuels 16 February CMA CGM takes first of 10 LNG-fueled vessels France-based shipping company CMA CGM will take delivery of the first of a series of 10 LNG-fueled container ships this month. 16 February Egypt to load 8-10 more LNG cargoes by end-winter: Eni Egypt could load 8-10 more LNG cargoes "before the end of the winter season", Eni said today. 16 February South Korean refiners opt to co-process biofuels A lack of regional mandates and retreating European demand for hydrotreated biofuels this year has pushed back timelines for new capacity start-ups in Asia-Pacific, driving South Korean refiners to favour co-processing rather than standalone biofuel plants. 15 February WSC proposes fossil-green fuel price gap close The World Shipping Council (WSC) proposed a green balance mechanism to close the price gap between conventional and sustainable marine fuels. 15 February Singapore LNG bunker sales at 5-month high Singapore LNG bunker sales reached a five-month high in January, according to data from Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), driven by competitive prices compared with conventional marine fuel. 15 February Lake Charles Methanol to build $3.2bn low-CO2 plant Lake Charles Methanol II announced plans to build a $3.2bn plant that will produce low-carbon intensity methanol and other chemicals at the Port of Lake Charles. 15 February Singapore LNG bunker sales at 5-month high Singapore LNG bunker sales reached a five-month high in January, according to data from Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), driven by competitive prices compared with conventional marine fuel. 15 February Maritime sector most promising for H2 in transport: HE The maritime sector provides most opportunities for use of hydrogen-based synthetic fuels in the transport sector, according to a survey carried out by industry body Hydrogen Europe. 15 February JBS says its B100 biodiesel has same yield as diesel Global meat producer JBS said that its 100pc biodiesel fuel (B100) — unblended biodiesel — has an energy efficiency equivalent to diesel and emits up to 80pc less carbon dioxide, based on tests on one of its trucks. 15 February Off-spec bio-blends widen pricing spread The range of prices for marine biodiesel blends in Europe has widened as cheaper product that does not meet the region's diesel engine specifications — as defined by the European EN14214 standard — gains market share. 15 February China turns to domestic ammonia output boost Increased domestic production capacity and weaker downstream industrial demand has the potential to weigh on China's ammonia imports this year. 15 February Mabanaft to build green methanol plant in Australia Hamburg-based Mabanaft has received approval to build a new green methanol plant in Port Augusta, located in southern Australia. 14 February Emerging LNG markets to absorb extra supply: Shell Emerging gas markets in China, southeast and south Asia will absorb much of the increase in LNG supply for the rest of this and the next decade, having been constrained by high prices in 2022-23, Shell said in its global LNG outlook, published today. 14 February Avoid offsets, ETS for carbon removals: Study Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities should be promoted for the "right reasons" and at the "right scale", and should not be financed through carbon offset credits or included in emissions trading systems (ETS), according to a recent study by the Institute for Responsible Carbon Removal at American University. 14 February Indonesia ammonia production at risk of curtailments Indonesian ammonia producers could be forced to consider production curtailments or outages if southeast Asian loading prices fall much further. 14 February More than 100 US biogas plants to start up in 2024 The American Biogas Council said 96 new biogas projects with a combined production capacity of 66,000 ft³/minute (9.82bn m³/yr) became operational in the US in 2023. It expects over 100 more to start up this year and said output from these will mostly be used for transportation fuel instead of power production. 14 February Chinese yard advances 271,000m³ LNG carrier orders French engineering firm Gaztransport and Technigaz (GTT) has received an order for eight 271,000m³ LNG tanks from a Chinese shipyard, with delivery of the vessels to be fitted with the tanks scheduled between the second quarter of 2028 and fourth quarter of 2029, GTT said. 14 February SE Asian UCO sees limited hit from US fast-food boycott A consumer boycott on US fast food outlets in support of Palestine is affecting some Indonesian and Malaysian used cooking oil (UCO) supplies, but market participants said the overall impact should be limited. 13 February Carnival commissions new LNG-fueled vessel US cruise ship operator Carnival has ordered a newbuild dual-fuel LNG-powered vessel for delivery in spring 2027. 13 February US House readies vote to end LNG review pause President Joe Biden's temporary pause on the review of new US LNG export facilities could face its first congressional test with a vote on a Republican-backed bill that would eliminate federal licensing of those projects. 13 February LNG carrier declares for Greece's Alexandroupolis The TotalEnergies-chartered 174,000m³ Gaslog Hong Kong has declared for arrival at Greece's new 4.3mn t/yr Alexandroupolis import terminal on 15 February, and could deliver the facility's first cargo. 13 February EU hydrogen plan relies on uncertain imports: T&E The EU should not rely on uncertain imports to meet its overly-ambitious hydrogen targets, says a study commissioned by the Brussels-based climate group Transport & Environment (T&E). 12 February Red Sea issues impact European methanol, derivatives Volatility in shipping markets following attacks in the Red Sea is impacting Europe's methanol market indirectly through higher freight rates and has directly impacted European derivative markets, as a result of reduced vessel availability and rerouting. 12 February Qatar taps Nakilat for second phase LNG fleet expansion State-owned QatarEnergy has selected Qatari state-controlled shipowner Nakilat for the ownership and operation of 25 174,000m³ LNG carriers, to be built at an unnamed shipyard in South Korea. 12 February SBTi validates Maersk's GHG emission reduction targets Danish shipping firm Moller-Maersk has become the first company to have its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets validated under new maritime guidance from the UN-backed Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). 12 February Spanish independent biodiesel producers under pressure Smaller Spanish biodiesel producers remain under pressure from thin margins that are cutting profits and shutting in some output. They are not being supported by domestic demand, which fell to a seven-year low in 2023. 12 February Mabanaft to apply for ammonia import terminal permit German energy trading firm Mabanaft expects to submit a permit application for its planned 1.2mn t/yr ammonia import terminal at Hamburg in the spring of this year. Alternative marine fuels 16 February Fujairah bunker premiums weaken as ships reroute Delivered bunker premiums have fallen in Fujairah, UAE, the world's third largest bunkering centre. Demand has weakened in recent weeks as a result of route diversions, stemming from the tense security situation in the Red Sea. 16 February US Gulf coast fuel oil spreads widest in 11 months Sulphur spreads between US Gulf coast residual fuel oil grades have reached the widest in 11 months, but that could change as refinery turnarounds likely wind down by late February or early March. 16 February Brazil's Paranagua cargo handling rises in January Cargo handling in Brazil's southern Paranagua and Antonina ports increased by 20pc in January from the same month last year, driven by higher exports and imports. 16 February Brazil's Paranagua port seeks to reach net zero by 2035 Brazil's port of Paranagua is working on a decarbonization plan for delivery by the end of 2026 to help it reach net zero balance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2035 by developing renewable energy sources such as biogas and hydrogen. 16 February Tanker targeted in Red Sea A Panama-flagged tanker was targeted by a missile in the Red Sea today around 72 miles northwest of Mokha, Yemen, according to security firm Ambrey. 16 February Japan's NYK taps demand for chemical tankers Japanese shipping company Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) plans to receive six chemical tankers from late 2026 to 2029, in anticipation of potential demand growth for petrochemical products. 15 February Upper Mississippi ice report canceled on warm weather An annual government ice measurement program for shipping on the upper Mississippi River was canceled this year because of unseasonably warm weather. 15 February Scorpio Tankers upbeat on clean tanker rates New York-listed Scorpio Tankers said it expects strong market fundamentals to keep clean tanker freight rates elevated, even if disruptions to trade flows dissipate. 15 February Magellan Corpus Christi terminal doing maintenance US crude and refined products pipeline operator Magellan Midstream reported maintenance at its Corpus Christi, Texas, marine terminal. 15 February ARA oil products stocks increase on weaker demand Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub hit their highest since mid-August, reaching 5.67mn t in the week to 14 February, according to consultancy Insights Global, as demand in the region slowed down. 15 February Panama Canal freezes customer priority ranking The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will freeze its customer priority ranking used to secure transit slots while temporary water-saving measures remain in place. 15 February Singapore's oil product stocks inch higher Singapore's overall oil product inventories inched upwards, driven by a surge in middle distillate imports, despite both light and heavy distillate stocks falling close to a 2½ month low, showed latest data from Enterprise Singapore. 14 February Petrobras working to rebuy refinery: CEO Brazil's state-controlled Petrobras is in talks with Abu Dhabi's Mubadala to buy the 300,000 b/d Mataripe refinery back, Petrobras' chief executive Jean Paul Prates said on social media. 14 February HSFO Med/NWE spread reaches near seven-month high High-sulphur bunker fuel in the west Mediterranean moved to its strongest premium to northwest Europe this week as attacks by Houthi rebels squeeze supply. 14 February Vitol can do with Saras what Saras cannot do alone Vitol's takeover of Italian independent refiner Saras, set in motion this week, could turn the latter into a specialised tool within the trading company's diverse business, while giving it a stronger footing to compete with rival Trafigura in Mediterranean oil markets. 14 February South Korea lifts 2023 light distillates output South Korean refiners increased light distillates production in 2023, while gasoil output fell. 13 February BP terminals low on fuel due to Whiting refinery outage BP told wholesale fuel customers it is buying refined products on the market to meet contractual obligations amid the continuing outage of its 435,000 b/d Whiting, Indiana, refinery. 13 February Outages hit Ecuador's 2023 refinery production Ecuador's three oil refineries of Esmeraldas, La Libertad and Shushufindi processed an average 146,235 b/d of crude in 2023, down by 5.3pc compared with the previous year, according to operator state-owned Petroecuador's data. 13 February Japan's bonded marine fuel sales fall in 2023 Japan sold less bonded marine fuel in 2023 compared with a year earlier, pressured by limited supply from domestic refineries owing to a series of disruptions. 12 February Suriname refinery undergoing 7-week turnaround Suriname's state-owned oil company Staatsolie's 15,000 b/d Tout Lui Faut refinery will undergo a seven-week turnaround starting on 16 February, Staatsolie said. 12 February US refiners shrug off dip in earnings US refiners' fourth-quarter financial results so far reveal a dip in earnings from the bumper profits of 2022, but the sector remains on a profitable footing and confident. 12 February India's MRPL plans refinery maintenance in Aug-Sep Indian state-controlled refiner MRPL plans to conduct a maintenance turnaround at one unit of its 311,000 b/d Mangalore refinery for around three weeks during August-September, a top official from the company told Argus. 12 February Atlantic basin diesel faces tight spring European diesel markets could be facing a tight spring as refinery maintenance and disruptions in the Red Sea make resupply difficult and expensive. Send comments and request more information at firstname.lastname@example.org Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Rengo starts trial 2G bioethanol production
Japan’s Rengo starts trial 2G bioethanol production
Tokyo, 20 February (Argus) — Japanese packaging firm Rengo has started a demonstration project to produce second-generation (2G) bioethanol, targeting 20,000 kilolitres/yr output by 2027. 2G bioethanol refers to ethanol made from non-edible resources such as biomass, while first-generation bioethanol is made from food resources such as sugarcane and corn. Rengo's subsidiary, Japanese pulp and paper producer Daiko Paper, and Tokyo-based bioethanol producer Biomaterial have started a demonstration project to produce bioethanol from unused biomass resources such as construction waste. The produced bioethanol will be used to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Daiko Paper said. The project is funded by state-owned research institute Nedo. Japan needs to develop technologies to ensure stable SAF production using domestic raw materials, in line with higher demand globally, as part of efforts to achieve decarbonisation by 2050. The country's trade and industry ministry Meti has set a goal to use 10pc SAF or 1.71mn kl/yr in domestic jet fuel consumption. Meti has encouraged domestic SAF production to enhance national energy security. Tokyo plans to spend around ¥340bn ($2.3bn) over a five-year period from 2024-25 to develop SAF production, leveraging its green transformation (GX) economic transition bonds. The GX bonds will supplement the country's public-private investments in SAF production and its feedstock supply chains, which is estimated to require more than ¥1 trillion over a 10-year period from 2023-24. By Reina Maeda Send comments and request more information at email@example.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore flights to require SAF, impose levy from 2026
Singapore flights to require SAF, impose levy from 2026
Singapore, 19 February (Argus) — Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) use will be required for flights departing Singapore from 2026 with a SAF levy also to be imposed, according to its sustainable air hub blueprint launched today. Singapore will aim for 1pc of SAF use by 2026, projected to rise to 3-5pc by 2030, subject to global developments and wider SAF availability and adoption, according to the blueprint launched by Singapore transport minister Chee Hong Tat at the Changi Aviation Summit. SAF use is expected to contribute to around 65pc of the reduction in emissions needed by aviation to achieve net zero by 2050, according to the International Air Transport Association. Singapore's jet fuel demand in 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, was around 8.43mn t (182,000 b/d), according to IEA data. Consumption is 2023 was likely lower with Changi Airport data showing 328,000 commercial aircraft movements against 382,000 in 2019. Demand will likely exceed 2019 levels by 2025, according to Argus Consulting projections. The blueprint, developed by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) in consultation with the industry and other stakeholders, sets out Singapore's action plan for the decarbonisation of its aviation sector. It will also be submitted this month to the International Civil Aviation Organisation as Singapore's state action plan. CAAS will also introduce a SAF levy to support the purchase of SAF to achieve its target. It will be set based on the SAF needed to achieve 1pc use and the projected SAF price in 2026. CAAS said the levy will not change even if the actual SAF price differs from the projected one, with the actual SAF uplifted adjusted instead, to provide cost certainty to airlines and travellers. The levy will vary based on factors such as distance travelled and the class of travel. CAAS projects that it could increase economy class ticket prices on a Singapore-Bangkok direct flight by around S$3 ($2.20), a Singapore-Tokyo flight by S$6 and a Singapore-London flight by S$16 to support 1pc SAF use in 2026. Passengers in premium classes will pay higher levies. CAAS will continue its consultation with stakeholders on the levy's implementation and will announce more details in 2025. CAAS this year will also work with stakeholders to start a trial on renewable diesel use for airside vehicles — especially heavy and specialised vehicles — to better understand the feasibility, cost and operational impact of using renewable diesel. The premium of fob Singapore SAF (class 2) prices over its conventional fob Singapore jet-kerosine counterpart has been narrowing from around $2,160/t in early October last year to $1,866/t as of mid-February, according to Argus assessments. The premium of RED hydrotreated vegetable oil fob Singapore (class 2) premium over fob Singapore 10ppm (0.001pc) sulphur gasoil prices fell to record lows of $649/t on 14 February before widening slightly to $659/t on 16 February. Singapore also aims to reduce domestic carbon emissions from airport operations from 404,000t in 2019 to 326,000t by 2030. This translates to a total 119,000t of reductions by 2030 accounting for projected growth. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at firstname.lastname@example.org Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU to launch Red Sea naval mission Monday
EU to launch Red Sea naval mission Monday
Munich, 18 February (Argus) — The EU on Monday will officially launch its naval mission in the Red Sea to defend commercial shipping from Yemen's Houthi militants' attacks, two senior European sources told Argus . The operation — named "Aspides", an ancient Greek word for shield — will involve three frigates for what will be initially a year-long mission, Hannah Neumann, chair of the EU parliament's delegation for relations with the Arab Peninsula, told Argus on the sidelines of Munich Security Conference. The mission is being touted as a "defensive operation" to ensure freedom of navigation and protect merchant vessels from Iran-backed Houthi militants. Its area of operation will include Bab el-Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, as well as international waters in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Gulf, according to the EU Official Journal. It will not conduct operations on land in Yemen. Germany and Belgium announced they will send a frigate each to join the mission, as will Italy. Houthis attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden forced tanker operators to reroute westbound voyages under the longer and costlier Cape of Good Hope route. Total toll revenues from the Suez Canal have dropped by 40pc since the end of November to $28mn, according to maritime freight management firm Veson Nautical. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at email@example.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.