Opec again pressed at the Cop 28 UN climate conference today for an all-energies approach to meet rising energy demand and ensure secure and affordable energy, as discussions on whether to commit to phase out fossil fuels take centre-stage at the summit.
The group has long said that oil will play a key role for decades to come, despite calls to accelerate the energy transition to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Paris accord sets a goal of limiting global warming to "well below 2°C" above pre-industrial averages, and preferably to 1.5°C.
Opec today in its statement at Cop 28 said that the Paris Agreement focuses on emissions and not the sources of emissions. Pressure increased ahead of Cop 28 and is continuing during the summit for parties to agree to reduce the use and production of all fossil fuels. Asked about whether the organisation is requesting that its members push back against the drive to curb fossil fuels, Opec secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said that the group does not comment on its internal communications, but that that Opec will continue to advocate for the need to reduce emissions.
This echoes previous interventions from the Arab States — a UN negotiating group including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, Egypt and Libya — at the summit.
The organisation also stressed the need for "an all-technologies" approach, as "the world needs to develop and finance all forms of technologies to help reduce emissions while meeting demand". It said that its member countries have invested "heavily" in hydrogen production and so-called abatement technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage and direct air capture, as well as "the circular economy and renewables". Other parties, such as the EU and the US, want to see such technologies limited to hard-to-abate industries.
"We need realistic approaches to tackle emissions … that enable economic growth and eradicate poverty and increase resilience at the same time," Opec said, adding that the global stocktake — which will measure progress against Paris agreement goals — needs to ensure that developed countries fulfil their long overdue climate commitments.
But some countries have pushed back against this characterisation of the issue. "It is not enough to pretend that it's possible to phase out fossil fuel emissions. It is about phasing out fossil fuels... It is about rallying around a common goal together," German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock wrote on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, on Friday.
Opec sees oil demand continuing to grow over the next two decades, reaching 116mn b/d in 2045, from 99.6mn b/d in 2022, with a "potential to be even higher." Its projections are in stark contrast to those of the IEA which forecast oil demand to peak by 2030 in its medium-term outlook on the oil market released in June.
The Opec outlook highlights marked differences in oil demand between a developed and developing world. OECD demand grows marginally up to a peak of 46.6mn b/d in 2026 before starting a steady descent from 2028 onwards. By 2045, OECD demand is 9.3mn b/d lower than in 2022. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to grow by 25.7mn b/d from 2022-2045, driven by high population growth, an expanding middle class and robust economic growth.
