Occidental deal sends Permian valuations soaring
US oil company Occidental Petroleum's agreed $12bn takeover of producer CrownRock has sent valuations in the Permian basin surging to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting the top US shale formation is about to get even more expensive.
Valued at more than $50,000/acre after accounting for existing production, according to Enverus Intelligence Research, the hefty price tag for CrownRock reflects fierce competition to secure what is left of the Permian's highly sought-after inventory. It also bodes well for some of the other large Permian firms seen as takeover candidates, including Endeavor Energy Resources and Mewbourne Oil.
The underlying logic behind the recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) wave — led by ExxonMobil's $59.5bn acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron's $53bn move on Hess — is a pressing need by some of the bigger producers to extend their stock of future drilling locations. Only about six years of the highest-quality inventory is left in the shale patch at current drilling rates, according to Enverus, and more than 70pc of that lies in the Permian. That signals the bidding frenzy is far from over. Scaling up now also provides a pathway for future discoveries as producers can test additional drilling zones within the Permian, while future productivity breakthroughs could also help them squeeze more out of the oil-soaked rock.
The $9.1bn of new debt Occidental is taking on to pay for CrownRock drew some unfortunate comparisons with the ill-timed $55bn acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum on the eve of the pandemic. It took a rebound in oil prices coming out of the downturn to restore the company's fortunes, as well as a vote of confidence by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, who has been steadily increasing his stake in Occidental. In any case, chief executive Vicki Hollub plans to cut the additional debt in half within a year on increased cash flow and $4.5bn-6bn in asset sales.
As well as an estimated 170,000 b/d of oil equivalent of additional output, Occidental also gets around 1,700 undeveloped locations in the Midland sub-basin of the Permian. Flush with cash from last year's run-up in oil prices, acquisitions are also a preferable way to grow in the minds of many investors who remain wary of any efforts to boost output given past excesses.
Lateral thinking
"With rates going up and their cost of capital going up, they're probably not looking as much at wanting to drill 50 new plots but rather, can we buy someone else and grow out," Hennessy Funds chief investment officer Ryan Kelley says. The current fad for drilling ever-deeper lateral wells also plays into this theme as producers can become more efficient by acquiring contiguous land.
One potential sticking point is the greater scrutiny being paid to M&A by the Federal Trade Commission under President Joe Biden's administration. The regulator has already requested extra information about the proposed transactions by ExxonMobil and Chevron, with Senate Democrats calling for them to be investigated on competition grounds. Chevron said the closing of the Hess deal could be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2024 as a result.
Still, next year is unlikely to see any let-up in terms of deal activity, with 67pc of respondents in a survey by investment management firm Evercore ISI expecting to see more industry consolidation compared with 2023. Even after this year's mega-deals, there are still far too many operators in the shale patch, financial services firm Pickering Energy Partners director Robert Mills says. Public companies are still not receiving much recognition from investors and getting bigger via deal-making is one way to do that. "The narrative has been ‘more please' and it will continue to be ‘more please'," Mills says of the outlook for deals.
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Vertex to pause Mobile renewable fuels refining
Vertex to pause Mobile renewable fuels refining
Houston, 9 May (Argus) — US specialty refiner Vertex plans to pause renewable fuels production at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery by the end of the year, returning a converted hydrocracker to produce what it says are wider-margin fossil fuel products. Vertex completed the conversion of the Mobile refinery and produced its first barrels of renewable diesel (RD) in May last year , having bought the refinery from Shell in 2022 . The company plans to use a third quarter turnaround to convert its renewable hydrocracker back to petroleum fuels production and to be up and running by the end of the year, after facing significant macro headwinds for renewable fuels, the company said on an earnings call today. The decision to return to full fossil fuels production is ultimately a near-term financial decision for the company which has an outstanding $196mn term loan, management said on an earnings call Thursday. The time line for a return to petroleum product production is contingent on permitting approvals and a successful completion of the turnaround and catalyst change in the unit. Vertex plans to sell its renewable feedstock inventories prior to the conversion. Vertex said it will retain the flexibility to return to renewable fuels processing should market conditions improve for the fuels, but does not believe headwinds to renewable markets will abate in at least the next year and a half. Conventional crude and other feedstock throughputs at the Mobile refinery were 64,000 b/d in the first quarter, down from 71,000 b/d in the same three months of 2023. Renewable throughputs were 4,000 b/d in the most recent quarter. The company expects 68,000-72,000 b/d of conventional crude and other feedstock throughputs in the second quarter and 2,000-4,000 b/d of renewable throughputs. Vertex reported a first quarter loss of $18mn compared to profits of $54mn in the first quarter of 2023. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s ANZ bank to end new gas, oil lending
Australia’s ANZ bank to end new gas, oil lending
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia-based bank ANZ has updated its oil and gas policy, with it to no longer provide direct financing to new or expanding upstream oil and gas projects. The bank declared its new policy as part of its 2024 half-year results released on 7 May, saying it would also decline to integrate new customers primarily focused on upstream oil and gas. ANZ said that while it believes gas plays a "material and important part in meeting Australia's current energy needs and will do so for the foreseeable future", it will instead collaborate with energy customers to help finance their transition away from fossil fuels. The bank has a 26pc greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2030 goal and committed in 2020 to exit all lending to companies with exposure to thermal coal, either through extraction or power generation by 2030 as part of lending criteria to support the 2015 UN Paris climate agreement target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050. ANZ has however promised to consider exceptions on a case-by-case basis, if any national energy security issues arise. Australia's banks have been under sustained pressure by environmental groups to exit lending to fossil fuel projects, as upstream gas firms also face shareholder rebellions over climate action plans. But Australia's federal government has conceded gas will likely be needed post-2050 as a firming power source for renewables and industrial feedstock for some sectors. But investment in upstream exploration has been extremely low in recent years, with imports of LNG likely in southern Australia from about 2026 to meet demand for industrial users and power generation. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia's federal government will attempt to reverse the decline in new gas developments by expediting projects, although a report has found it is unlikely to reverse an anticipated shortfall in southern states' supplies later this decade. Canberra's long-awaited Future Gas Strategy will form its future policy on the resource, following two years of uncertainty for the industrial sector. This follows the Labor party-led government's election in May 2022 and its dumping of the previous Liberal-National coalition administration's gas-fed recovery from Covid-19 policy, which emphasised bringing new supplies on line to drive down rising prices. Six principles have been outlined by the government — driving down emissions reductions to reach net zero emissions by 2050, making gas affordable for users during the transition, bringing new supplies on line, supporting a shift to "higher-value and non-substitutable gas uses", ensuring gas and power markets remain fit for purpose during the energy transition and maintaining Australia's status as a reliable trading partner for energy, including LNG. The report found that gas-fired power generation will likely provide grid firming as renewables replace older coal-fired plants. Peak daily gas demand could rise by a factor of two to three by 2043, according to projections, with gas-powered peaking generation labelled a "core component of the National Electricity Market to 2050 and beyond". But by the 2040s more alternatives to gas for peaking and firming are expected to become available. Supplies are forecast to dip significantly in the latter years of the decade, especially in gas-dependent southeast Australia, driven by the 86pc depletion of the region's producing fields. This reduced supplies will outpace a fall in demand , while rising demand is forecast because of the retirement of Western Australia's coal-fired power plants . The report found the causes of Australia's low exploration investment are "multifaceted", blaming the Covid-19 pandemic, difficulties with approvals processes , legal challenges, market interventions and a perceived decline in social licence. It added that international companies may focus on lower cost and lower risk fields in other countries. New sources Stricter enforcement of petroleum retention leases and domestic gas reservation policies are also likely to increase supplies, the report found, with term swap arrangements beneficial in increasing their certainty. Upwards pressure in transport costs is likely to result from increased piping of Queensland coal-bed methane gas to southern markets such as Victoria state, which could influence industrial users to relocate closer to gas fields in the future. Options canvassed to meet demand include more pipelines and processing plants and LNG import terminals , which would provide the fastest option but must overcome regulatory and commercial pressures, given the pricing of LNG would be higher than current domestic prices. Longer term supplies depend on the commerciality from unsanctioned projects such as Narrabri and in the Beetaloo and Surat basins, the report said. More supplies are needed to support exports under foundational LNG contracts, with an impact on the domestic market if Surat basin developments such as Atlas does not continue, the report said. Forecasts show LNG exporters have sufficient production from existing and committed facilities to meet forecast exports until 2027 if expected investments proceed. But beyond this new investment is required, especially for the 8.5mn t/yr Shell-operated Queensland-Curtis LNG at Gladstone. The Australian Energy Producers lobby, which represents upstream oil and gas businesses, said the strategy should now provide clear direction on national energy policy. But the Greens party, the main federal parliamentary group aside from Labor and the Liberal-National coalition, said any plans to continue gas extraction beyond 2050 will negate state and federal net zero 2050 climate targets. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Baltic April gas consumption rises on year
Baltic April gas consumption rises on year
London, 8 May (Argus) — Gas demand in the three Baltic states and Finland was up by 26pc on the year in April, although there were diverging trends in the different markets. Consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania totalled 3.56TWh, up from 2.82TWh a year earlier but down from 4.31TWh in March ( see data and download, graph ). That said, total demand was still well below the 2018-21 average for the month of 5.03TWh. Consumption was up on the year in all three Baltic countries, but Finnish demand edged down. This was the first month in which Finnish demand was lower on the year since April 2023. In contrast, Lithuanian consumption surged by nearly 50pc on the year, and was also higher than in February and March despite the end of the traditional heating season. Gas-fired power generation held broadly stable from a year earlier, totalling 305MW across the four countries compared with 301MW in April last year ( see gas-fired output table ). Output edged down in Estonia and Lithuania and dropped by 25MW in Finland, but this was offset by a 31MW increase on the year in Latvia. But, unlike in March, gas-fired output fell by 246MW, a large contributing factor to the lower gas demand on the month. Many combined heat and power plants will have switched off at around the end of March or mid-April as the traditional heating season came to a close, possibly driving the fall in gas-fired output. But renewables generation was also stronger in April than March, particularly in Finland, where wind output rose to 2.03GW from 1.63GW, while hydro also stepped up. In Lithuania, solar and waste-based production increased on the month. Demand was also stronger despite higher year-on-year minimum temperatures in all four capital cities, which may have curbed most residual heating demand after the end of the traditional heating season, although there was a brief cold snap towards the middle of the month that temporarily drove up demand ( see temperatures table ). With gas-fired power generation only marginally higher than a year earlier, and the warmer weather curbing residential demand, a possible uptick in industrial demand may have driven the aggregate rise in consumption. Average prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange were €33.30/MWh in April, up by 8pc on the month but 30pc lower than a year earlier, the exchange said. Prices increased in around the middle of April "due to the unexpectedly cold weather and the increased demand for gas in the market", but then fell again "as the weather warmed", GET Baltic chief executive Giedre Kurme said. There were a total of 2,400 transactions last month for a combined 642GWh of gas. Volumes sold on the Finnish market accounted for 42pc, the joint Latvian-Estonian market 33pc, and the remaining 25pc was sold in Lithuania. Klaipeda and Balticconnector to change flows The return of the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector pipeline and the start of maintenance at the Klaipeda LNG terminal in Lithuania will drive changed flow patterns this month. The Balticconector resumed commercial operations on 22 April after being off line since 8 October following a rupture caused by a dragging ship anchor . The reconnection of Finland to its southern neighbours has allowed for strong southward flows since 22 April, at an average of 62 GWh/d on 22 April-7 May. Some of this gas is probably being injected into storage, with the region's only facility at Incukalns switching to net injections on 23 April from net withdrawals of 7 GWh/d earlier in the month. Net injections have since averaged 46 GWh/d on 23 April-6 May, the latest data from EU transparency body GIE show. Stocks at Incukalns ended the withdrawal season on 30 April at 11.29TWh, the highest since at least 2014 and well above the previous high from last year of 9.03TWh. Large volumes of gas that had been stored over the previous summer for export to Finland over the winter were left stranded in Incukalns after the Balticconnector went off line. And the Klaipeda LNG terminal began maintenance on 1 May, which will last until 15 June, as the terminal's Independence floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) departed for dry-docking in Denmark. As a result, there were net exports from Poland to Lithuania for the first time since early November, at an average of 17 GWh/d on 1-7 May. Some of this gas could have been withdrawn from Ukrainian storage, with flows from Ukraine to Poland averaging 10 GWh/d over the same period. Lithuania's largest supplier Ignitis has said it stored some volumes in Ukraine. And flows at the Kiemenai border point with Latvia have also flipped towards Lithuania, averaging 11 GWh/d on 1-7 May, compared with net flows towards Latvia of 15 GWh/d in April. That said, there were no flows at the point on 6-26 April. By Brendan A'Hearn Finnish, Baltic average gas-fired power generation MW Apr-24 Apr-23 Mar-24 ± Apr 23 ± Mar 24 Estonia 5 6 7 -1 -2 Latvia 49 18 215 31 -166 Lithuania 46 47 52 -1 -6 Finland 205 230 277 -25 -72 Total 305 301 551 4 -246 — Entso-E Daily average minimum temperature in FinBalt capitals °C Apr-24 Apr-23 Mar-24 ± yr/yr ± m/m 2014-23 Apr avg Vilnius 5.22 3.83 0.93 1.39 4.29 2.63 Riga 5.01 4.98 1.93 0.03 3.08 3.65 Tallinn 2.00 1.46 -0.59 0.54 2.59 1.17 Helsinki 0.11 -0.45 -2.55 0.56 2.66 0.12 — Speedwell Finnish and Baltic April consumption by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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