Libyan oil fields and terminals have enjoyed a relatively disruption-free 12-month period, making 2023 the second-highest year for crude exports since the country's civil war in 2011. But the political instability that has plagued the Libyan oil sector since the overthrow of Muammar Gadaffi over a decade ago has not dissipated and is already threatening to crimp exports at the start of 2024.
The 300,000 b/d El Sharara field, the largest oil field in Libya, has shut down following protests that began yesterday, a source close to the matter told Argus. The field has been subject to repeated politically-motivated shutdowns in the past decade. Its production was last affected in July 2023. If prolonged, the latest shutdown could weigh on January exports of the Esharara grade from the Zawia terminal.
The fresh disruption follows a strong year for Libyan oil producers. Crude exports averaged just under 990,000 b/d in 2023, according to Argus tracking, over 100,000 b/d higher than than in 2022 and around 80,000 b/d below the post-civil war high of 1.07mn b/d in 2021. Last year's exports were the most consistent they have been in the post-war period, with monthly averages ranging from 938,000 b/d to 1.06mn b/d.
Libya finished 2023 on a high, with December exports rising by 8pc on the month to hit 1.05mn b/d. Loadings to Libya's core Mediterranean and northwest European markets inched up by 2pc compared with November to 829,000 b/d last month, underpinned by a rise in exports to Italy and Spain. Exports to Asia-Pacific also increased, while translatlantic shipments fell.
Exports of Es Sider, Libya's largest crude stream, were 265,000 b/d in December, up by 4pc on the month. In November, when the majority of December-loading cargoes would have traded, Es Sider averaged a 39¢/bl discount to the North Sea Dated benchmark, compared with a 64¢/bl premium in October.
Exports of Esharara, which is typically shipped exclusively to Europe, declined by 6pc from November to 139,000 b/d in December. Esharara crude is also used domestically at Libya's 120,000 b/d Zawia refinery.
