Latest market news

TMX crude line delayed to 2Q: Trans Mountain: Update

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 29/01/24

Adds heavy sour price movements.

Canada's 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) will now be completed in the second quarter at the earliest, as complications while pulling pipe through a tunnel this past week created additional delays, the company said today.

Technical issues encountered during pipeline pullback activity between 25-27 January in British Columbia "will result in additional time to determine the safest and most prudent actions for minimizing further delay," Trans Mountain said in a statement.

The section at the heart of the issue, known as Mountain 3 horizontal directional drill (HDD), is one of the last construction stages for the massive project first conceived more than a decade ago.

Heavy sour crude prices at Hardisty, Alberta, fell today on TMX's scheduling uncertainty, after narrowing its discount to the light sweet crude benchmark in Cushing, Oklahoma, in recent weeks.

March-delivered Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty, Alberta, was talked at near an $18/bl discount to the Nymex WTI calendar month today, about $2/bl wider than the session before. This still represents a $10/bl rise since early November as TMX's commissioning comes closer to reality.

While WCS does not price at Edmonton, other heavy sour grades like Cold Lake and Access Western Blend do and more volumes could be coaxed westward rather than to the US midcontinent or Gulf coast once TMX comes online.

The setback comes two weeks after Trans Mountain was given regulatory approval to use a 30-inch diameter pipe instead of 36-inches for this small section of the project about 100 kilometres (62 miles) east of Vancouver, British Columbia. The 1,225 meter stretch has given construction crews repeated trouble, but a tunnel wide enough to hold the smaller pipe had been excavated, which was expected to keep the C$30.9bn ($23bn) project on track and avoid a lengthy delay.

Trans Mountain said last week that line fill could be completed in late March or early April, but that schedule now appears to be in jeopardy.

TMX will roughly triple the existing 300,000 b/d pipeline that stretches from Edmonton, Alberta, to the docks at Burnaby, British Columbia.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
07/10/24

Concerns remain over plans of firm tapped to run Citgo

Concerns remain over plans of firm tapped to run Citgo

London, 7 October (Argus) — The top bidder in the auction for Venezuelan state-run PdV's US refining subsidiary, Citgo, says it plans to reinvest in its 804,000 b/d of refining capacity, but concerns remain over the private equity-backed buyer's intentions. Amber Energy was selected on 27 September as the top bidder in an auction for the seventh-largest US refiner, with a bid of $7.3bn. The company, backed by investors including Elliott Investment Management, says it would focus on "enhancing the value of its [Citgo's] core assets" by prioritising "operational excellence", reinvesting in the business and pursuing "strategic investments". Amber is led by industry veterans Gregory Goff and Jeff Stevens. The latter was chief executive of Western Refining from 2010-17, while Goff ran refiner Andeavor from 2010-18, during which time it changed its name from Tesoro, bought Stevens' Western Refining and was then bought by Marathon Petroleum. Goff and Stevens' refining pedigree has not allayed concerns in the market that one of their investors, Elliott, and other undisclosed backers, want to split up the assets and sell them for a combined price higher than the investment group's $7.3bn bid. Elliott's track record of activist investing in North American refiners shows a clear preference for improving the core business of processing crude into fuels, with little interest in what the investment firm views as non-core assets. Elliott pushed Canadian integrated energy company Suncor in 2022 for board changes and divestment of its 1,500 retail stores, which it ultimately did not sell. The firm had more luck with Marathon, which agreed to sell its 3,900-store Speedway network in 2019, the year after it bought Andeavor. Last year, Elliott purchased a $1bn stake in Phillips 66 and called for the company to refocus on its refining business and reduce operating costs. Phillips 66 divested some of its retail network and pipelines this year. The investment group, which started out trading in the 1970s but has since expanded into a multi-strategy hedge fund and private equity firm, has shown a clear preference for merchant refiners within its activist investments, and criticised the strategy of integrated refining companies. It is not clear whether that preference carries through to its private-markets investment in Amber, which could also be eyeing an initial public offering for the assets down the line. Elliott did not respond to requests for comment on its strategy. A spokesperson for Amber declined to discuss details of the company's strategy on the record. Seeking closure Amber said it expects the sale to close in mid-2025, pending regulatory approval and a final recommendation by the US Court for the District of Delaware. But investors involved in the auction process and other downstream operators told Argus that higher bids from other refiners or groups are likely, as Amber's bid is considered relatively low for what are widely viewed as attractive refining assets. The auction comes at a time of flatlining domestic demand for road fuels such as gasoline, and ongoing worries about the future of the US refining industry, where smaller and less profitable plants are the most likely to shutter operations. But Citgo's two Gulf coast assets — a 455,000 b/d refinery in Louisiana and a 165,000 b/d plant in Texas — are large, complex refineries that could benefit from access to export markets as domestic demand wanes and the Gulf coast readies for the 2025 closure of LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d Houston plant. Citgo's 184,000 b/d Lemont refinery in Illinois could gain access to cheap Canadian heavy crude and sell products to the US market when major plants such as ExxonMobil's 252,000 b/d Joliet refinery in Illinois and BP's 435,000 b/d Whiting facility in Indiana are off line owing to outages or maintenance. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Africa seeks trillions in climate finance at Cop 29


07/10/24
News
07/10/24

Africa seeks trillions in climate finance at Cop 29

Africa faces the heaviest economic burden from climate change, and the most uncertainty over funding, writes Elaine Mills Cape Town, 7 October (Argus) — A key priority for African countries at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku next month is to secure a new climate finance goal for developing countries. But as well as serious commitments on an amount, the continent wants increased accessibility and cheaper funding. Regional alliance the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) is seeking a climate finance commitment from developed countries of $1.3 trillion/yr by 2030, under a new climate finance goal currently being negotiated — the so-called new collective and quantified goal (NCQG). The NCQG is the next stage of the $100bn/yr target that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. It was met for the first time in 2022, according to the OECD, but some countries in Africa have complained that the money never reached them. The AGN wants to steer clear of the old target, contesting whether it has even been met. The group says it wants lessons to be learned, especially regarding the quality of the finance and the difficulties countries have had in accessing it. Uganda asks that the new goal avoids "political statements that are not implemented", referring to uncertainties over how the finance was counted and accessed. African states want the funding to come mostly from public sources, largely in the form of grants and highly concessional loans. This should improve borrowing costs and ease debt burdens, which are forcing countries to make trade-offs with critical development needs. The group does not want market-based loans to be counted as climatefinance — the majority of multilateral climate loans were market-based in 2016-22. Most African countries face an unsustainable debt situation that has been worsened by higher global interest rates, AGN chair Ali Mohamed says. "Our focus is on agreed obligations within the multilateral climate process and the need to improve investments to unlock the continent's potential to tackle the climate crisis, which is paralysing most economies," he says. Africa receives only 2pc of total global climate finance, according to think-tank Climate Policy Initiative. The new NCQG must create the right conditions to push that share to at least 30pc, "otherwise it is a failed process", a South Africa negotiator said last month. The heaviest price The first global stocktake at Cop 28 in Dubai last year acknowledged the world is off track in meeting the Paris Agreement's goals, with significant ambition and implementation gaps in mitigation and adaptation, as well as loss and damage, Mohamed says. African countries submitted ambitious nationally determined contributions, but there has not been corresponding financial and technical support for their implementation. "We lack clarity on the amount of current and future funding, capacity building and technical support," Kenya's cabinet secretary for environment, climate change and forestry, Aden Bare Duale, says. This vagueness undermines transparency of support under the Paris accord, and addressing it should be prioritised in the forthcoming negotiations, he says. African countries lose 2-5pc of their GDPs annually and many divert up to 9pc of their budgets responding to climate extremes, according to the State of the Climate in Africa 2023 report by the World Meteorological Organisation. The report serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for climate action in Africa, where extreme weather events disproportionately impact the continent's socio-economic development, Zambian environment minister Mike Mposha says. "It is African nations who pay the heaviest price," Simon Stiell, head of UN climate body the UNFCCC, says. "But it would be incorrect for any world leader — especially in the G20 — to think ‘It's not my problem'. The economic and political reality — in an interdependent world — is we are all in this crisis together." Climate finance flows and needs in Africa Bilateral climate finance loans in 2016-2022 Multilateral climate finance loans 2016-2022 Multilateral climate finance loans 2016-2022 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Nigeria starts local currency crude sales to Dangote


07/10/24
News
07/10/24

Nigeria starts local currency crude sales to Dangote

Lagos, 7 October (Argus) — Nigeria's state-owned oil firm NNPC began selling crude to the country's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery in the local currency on 1 October, as planned, the Nigerian government said. Co-ordinating minister of the economy Wale Edun said he has conducted "a post-commencement review" of the programme, where downstream regulator NMDPRA, NNPC and Dangote officials confirmed the start of sales in naira. "From 1 October, NNPC will commence the supply of approximately 385,000 b/d of crude oil to the Dangote refinery, which will be paid for in naira," Edun had said previously. The programme will also involve Dangote supplying gasoline and diesel of "equivalent value to the domestic market to be paid for in naira". The crude and product sales will be valued in dollars at prevailing international market prices, but financial settlements will be completed in naira at a fixed exchange rate that has so far not been disclosed. Maritime and port regulatory costs for coastal deliveries of crude and products under the programme, which are normally collected in dollars, "will also be paid for in naira", Edun said. The Nigerian Ports Authority's managing director, Abubakar Dantsoho, previously confirmed the set-up of a "one-stop shop that will co-ordinate service provision from all regulatory and security agencies", listing Nigerian ports, maritime, customs and tax authorities and the navy as participants. Dangote will sell diesel volumes under the programme "to any interested offtaker", the government said, but gasoline will only be sold to NNPC. "NNPC will then sell to various marketers for now," according to the government. "Since gasoline is still subsidised by the government, using discounted foreign exchange [available] only to NNPC, prices at wholesale and retail are still considerably below the market. That is why only NNPC can buy Dangote's gasoline today," said Bob Dickerman, the chief executive of local oil trader Pinnacle. Nigeria's diesel market has been deregulated since 2003 but efforts to remove the country's longstanding gasoline subsidy have stalled. Dangote started sales of gasoline to NNPC on 15 September under an older contract in which the national oil company pays the refiner in dollars. Argus tracking shows Dangote's crude receipts rose by 5pc on the month to 195,000 b/d in September. Dangote said it is aiming for a run rate of 350,000 b/d in its first phase of operations but has fallen short of that level in every month this year except for June. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Biden urges Israel against Iran oil strike


04/10/24
News
04/10/24

Biden urges Israel against Iran oil strike

Washington, 4 October (Argus) — President Joe Biden today suggested that Israel should not strike Iran's oil facilities, a day after confirming that such an attack was being discussed. "If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields," Biden said. He added that "Israelis have not concluded what they're going to do in terms of a strike that's under discussion." Biden's comments on Thursday lifted crude futures out of concern over the damage of a potential Israeli strike and the Iranian response that could follow. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk


04/10/24
News
04/10/24

Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk

Dubai, 4 October (Argus) — Iran's large-scale missile attack against Israel on 1 October pushed the Mideast Gulf region another step closer to all-out war, with Israel vowing to retaliate hard for what it saw as "a severe and dangerous escalation." But unlike previous exchanges, which have largely targeted military assets, critical energy infrastructure including oil facilities appear this time to be in Israel's crosshairs. President Joe Biden on 3 October said the US and Israel are discussing possible strikes on Iranian oil facilities as part of consultations on a response. The Biden administration would not provide any details and the only objection it has voiced publicly is against the prospect of an Israeli strike on sites associated with Iran's nuclear programme. The escalating conflict in the region, which began with a surprise cross-border attack by Gaza-based Hamas militants on Israel almost one year ago, has had a limited impact on oil prices, because the effect on physical supply has been almost non-existent despite the scale of the fighting and destruction in Gaza, northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen on oil tankers in the Red Sea rerouted some oil trade without affecting global supply. That could change if Israel makes good on its threat to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure and, especially, if Iran retaliates — as it did in 2019 to a US attempt to cut off its exports — with indiscriminate attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. But the extent of the effect on global supply and price will ultimately depend on Israel's intentions, and what kind of facilities are hit. "If the objective is to hurt the country economically, then the most obvious target would be Iran's oil export terminals," said Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian. Despite US sanctions, Iran continues to be a major crude producer — the third biggest in Opec — and a notable exporter. Oil exports averaged around 1.55mn-1.6mn b/d in the first half of this year, rising to 1.65mn-1.7mn b/d in July-August. Early indications suggest September exports were higher still. Iran has several terminals from where it exports its crude and condensate, all on its Mideast Gulf coast. But one, on Kharg Island, dwarves all others in terms of importance. "About 90-95pc of Iran's oil exports typically come out of Kharg, with the other 5-10pc coming out of considerably smaller terminals, such as Soroush, Sirri or Lavan," Azizian said. "Hitting one of those smaller streams wouldn't impact Iran too much, operationally. But if they decide to take Kharg offline, we're talking about a hit of around 1.5mn b/d to its export capacity." Knock-on effects When Iran was struggling to sell its oil because of sanctions the US imposed in 2018, it had upwards of 60mn-70mn bl in floating storage. But these have fallen to just shy of 40mn bl, which would only sustain exports of about 1.3mn b/d for a month, Azizian noted. Iran has onshore storage, but many of the biggest tanks are at Kharg, which could be at risk of damage should the terminal be targeted. An attack on Kharg Island would strike at the heart of the Iranian economy, given how big a chunk of Iran's foreign exchange revenues come from the sale of its oil. Nearly all Iran's exports are absorbed by refiners in China's Shandong province. But the effect of potentially removing 1.5mn b/d from global supply would be felt far beyond Iran and China, as global markets would be forced to adapt. Crude futures moved higher this week on the prospect of Israeli strikes against Iran. The Biden administration for the past year has worked to keep the conflict from escalating, in part because of the potential knock-on effects on oil prices — a key consideration in the US election campaign where Biden's vice-president, Kamala Harris, is facing former president Donald Trump. If the confrontation results in an Iranian outage, avoiding a price rise would require a co-ordinated move by the US and other large consumers and, possibly, by the wider Opec+ group, to ensure supplies can be brought to the market. Opec+ is holding back close to 6mn b/d of production under a series of formal and voluntary cuts, which it could bring back sooner than currently planned. But doing so in response to an attack on Iran could stoke tensions within Opec and between Iran and its Mideast Gulf Arab neighbours, which improved relations with Tehran in recent years. The US would be hard pressed to again guarantee the security of key oil infrastructure facilities across the region. The tepid initial US response to a 2019 attack on Saudi state-controlled Aramco's Abqaiq complex and to a 2022 attack on UAE energy facilities prompted regional producers to consider Washington's military security guarantee as falling short. Kpler senior oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi sees the the probability of an attack on Kharg Island as low, given China's relations with Israel and Iran. "I imagine China will put as much pressure on Israel not to target Iran's exports," Falakshahi said. Refining plans Alternatively, Israel could opt to target one or more of Iran's 10 oil refineries or condensate splitters that are largely concentrated in the west of the country. Discussion at an industry conference in Fujairah this week about a possible Israeli retaliation centred on Iran's largest refinery, the recently expanded 630,000 b/d capacity Abadan in Khuzestan province. Targeting Abadan was seen as a less provocative move, while still providing a warning to Tehran that energy installations are ‘in play' and hitting Iran's domestic products supply. A hit to Abadan would be significant, but not impossible to navigate for Iran, according to Falakshahi, who notes it produces mostly fuel oil, a product primarily consumed domestically with some exported to Fujairah in the UAE, China and Singapore, among other destinations. Abadan produces other products such as gasoline, which Iran has recently had to begin importing again to meet demand, but output is only enough to meet around 12-13pc of consumption. "It will primarily impact the local market, but little else," Falakshahi said. "But not to the same extent as if, say, the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter was targeted, as that alone delivers enough to meet around 20-25pc of local gasoline demand." Gasoline is a politically-sensitive issue in Iran, with even minor changes in the price of the road fuel sometimes sparking charged demonstrations and riots. More than 200 people were killed in riots in November 2019 triggered by a sudden cut to subsidies that resulted in a sharp increase in gasoline prices. Israel has so far not given any public hints as to when it plans to retaliate or how. But with tensions in the region already at the highest they have been for some years, Iran will be on high alert, and upping security where it can. A trading source told Argus that Iran's state-owned NIOC has in recent days moved many of its empty tankers away from Kharg Island. By Nader Itayim Iran’s oil refineries and terminals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more