El Nino to end in April-May: Australia’s BoM

Market: Agriculture, Coal, Coking coal, Fertilizers
06/02/24

The El Nino weather phenomenon has peaked and is declining, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said, pointing to neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation levels developing in the southern hemisphere from April.

International forecasts and observations suggest surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to neutral levels, indicating neither an El Nino nor La Nina phenomenon by April or May, with the latest climate model from the BoM returning to neutral in June.

The forecast for more neutral climate drivers comes after a wetter than expected summer for much of eastern Australia, foreshadowed by a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in December-January, which typically brings above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia and Tasmania. The SAM will become briefly positive in early February before returning to neutral, the BoM said on 6 February.

February rainfall is forecast to be below median for most of Australia, with February-April rainfall likely to be below median for northern Australia, including the coal-producing areas of Queensland state's Bowen basin.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the western Pacific, where it increases the chance of above average rainfall across northeastern Australia. But most models suggest it will move eastwards, losing strength this week.

Australia's wetter and milder than anticipated summer weather led to predictions of lower farm incomes for the 2023-24 year ending 30 June, and concerns about bushfires affecting key export corridors for commodities such as coal, which have not eventuated so far.

Cattle supply has been impacted by the lingering effects of ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, which led to localised flooding in parts of Queensland, with wet conditions across the region cutting demand for bitumen productsCoal loadings were disrupted at a number of Queensland's ports and slowed chartering activity, although terminals reopened two days later. But the wetter-than-expected weather has been blamed for coal ship queues remaining long in 2024.

Australian cattle slaughter rates, which were predicted to rise significantly in 2024 under El Nino conditions, may be revised down if fewer breeders are directed to processors because of more positive weather patterns.

By Tom Major

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23/04/25

Brazilian wildfires burn 70pc less area in 1Q

Sao Paulo, 23 April (Argus) — Wildfires in Brazil scorched an area almost equivalent to the size of Cyprus in January-March, but still 70pc less than in the same period in 2024 as the rainy season was above average in most of the north-central part of the country this year. The wildfires spread out over 912,900 hectares (ha) in the first three months of 2025, down from 2.1mn ha in the same period of 2024, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. The reduced burnt areas are related to the rainy season in most of the country, but still-high wildfire levels in the Cerrado biome showed that specific strategies are necessary for each biome to prevent further climate-related impacts, researchers said. The Cerrado lost 91,700ha to wildfires in the first quarter, up by 12pc from a year before and more than double from the average since 2019. Burnt areas in the Atlantic forest also increased 18,800ha in the period, up by 7pc from a year earlier. Wildfire-damaged areas in the southern Pampa biome, or low grasslands, grew by 1.4pc to 6,600ha. The Amazon biome lost over 774,000ha to wildfires in the first quarter of 2025, a 72pc drop from a year earlier, while it accounted for almost 52pc of burnt areas in March. The loss represented 84pc of the total burnt land in the period. Burnt areas in the central-western Pantanal biome, or tropical wetland, fell by 86pc in the first quarter to 10,900ha. The northeastern Caatinga biome, or seasonally dry tropical forest, lost around 10,000ha in burnt areas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024. Reductions may not persist as a drought season will begin in May and is expected to be severe, according to Mapbiomas. Last year, an extended drought season prompted burnt areas to grow by 79pc from 2023. Northern Roraima state was the state to suffer the most from wildfires in the period, with 415,700ha lost to wildfires during its distinct drought season in the beginning of the year, while other states faced a rainy season. Northern Para and northeastern Maranhao followed, with 208,600ha and 123,800ha of burnt areas, respectively. Wildfires hit over 24,730ha of soybean fields in the period, a 29pc decrease from a year earlier, while burnt areas in sugarcane fields fell by 31pc to around 7,280ha. Wildfires hit 106,600ha of the country in March, a 86pc decrease from 674,900ha a year earlier. By João Curi Burnt areas in March ha 2025 2024 Amazon 55,172 732,929 Cerrado 37,937 20,995 Atlantic Forest 9,262 4,509 Caatinga 2,296 755 Pampa 1,514 127 Pantanal 562 21,799 Total 106,641 781,114 — Mapbiomas - Monitor do fogo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US generators weigh delaying coal plant retirements

23/04/25

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23/04/25

US generators weigh delaying coal plant retirements

New York, 23 April (Argus) — US utilities are considering additional extensions to coal plant retirements in response to recent policy changes, even though the benefit for the coal industry may be short-lived. US utilities are still mostly reviewing US president Donald Trump's executive orders issued earlier this month plus other actions initiated by his administration. One of the more concrete recent actions were the two-year exemptions from complying with updated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards granted to dozens of power plants on 15 April. But even though utilities had applied for these exemptions, the majority of those that spoke to Argus indicated they are still evaluating their options. "Granting a two-year compliance extension at Labadie and Sioux will enable Ameren Missouri to further refine its compliance strategy and optimize planned monitoring mechanisms to ensure accuracy," said Ameren Missouri director of environmental services Craig Giesmann. "We are committed to selecting cost-effective solutions that minimize the impact on customer rates." Ameren's 1,099MW Sioux plant is scheduled to be closed by 2028 and the 2,389MW Labadie plant has no concrete retirement date. Tennessee Valley Authority said it is "carefully reviewing" the mercury and air toxics exemptions "for how it might apply and benefit our efforts to support load growth across our seven-state region." The federal utility was granted exemptions for all of its coal facilities, including units of the Cumberland and Kingston plants that had been scheduled to close by the 1 July 2027 compliance deadline for the new mercury and air toxics standards. NRG Energy and Xcel Energy also said they are still considering how to proceed. "It will take our regulatory and environmental teams some time to evaluate and access the new guidelines, so we do not have any update to share at this time," NRG said. The utility was granted exemptions for four coal plants with a combined 7,092MW of capacity. None of these units currently has concrete retirement dates scheduled. Companies need to take into account other factors before committing to extending a coal unit's life, including natural gas price expectations and whether government regulations will stay in place. In addition, the planning process for retiring and adding generating assets takes time. These factors also are being taken into account by utilities that do not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but could be affected by other efforts the Trump administration is making to try to preserve coal generation. "Whatever impacts may arise from policy changes this year will be assessed in a future [Integrated Resource Plan], with the best analysis of information available at that time," utility PacifiCorp said. The utility just filed its latest integrated resource plan with state regulators on 31 March and does not expect to file another one until early 2027. Another utility that did not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but would be affected by other regulatory actions said it is considering extending coal unit operations by a few years. A US coal producer reported receiving increased inquiries from utilities about the feasibility of continuing to get coal supply beyond power plant units' planned retirement dates. Both buyers and sellers that talked to Argus agree that contract flexibility is gaining importance. But "even if you roll back some regulations and push deadlines on various retirements and certain requirements out into the future, you still can not justify taking more coal unless it is going to be competitive" with natural gas, one market participant said. While profit margins for dispatching coal in US electric grids were above natural gas spark spreads for a number of days this past winter, that was an anomaly when compared with recent years. Coal may bridge generating gap But recent policy changes could help utilities use coal generation to bridge any gaps in generating capacity caused by delays in bringing other energy sources online. These include possible delays in adding solar generation following increased tariffs the Trump administration has imposed on imports from China as well as legislation moving through some state governing bodies aimed at inhibiting renewable projects. On 15 April, the Texas Senate passed a bill that would impose restrictions on solar and wind projects, including new permits, fees, regulatory requirements, and taxes. Separately, North Carolina legislators are reviewing a bill that proposes reducing solar tax breaks from 80pc to 40pc and limiting locations for utility-scale projects. Other states are moving forward with efforts to encourage less carbon-intensive generation. Colorado governor Jared Polis (D) on 31 March signed legislation classifying nuclear energy as a "clean" power source. Increased renewable energy generating capacity still is expected to be the "main contributor" to growth in US electricity generation, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). But EIA's latest outlook did not take into account the coal-related executive orders Trump signed on 8 April. "We are currently evaluating these developments, and they will be reflected in the May STEO," EIA chief economist Jonathan Church said. Most market participants do not expect substantial long-term changes to come from recent coal-supporting efforts because of various other factors including the fundamental economics of coal-fired power plants. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's Rifertil files for bankruptcy protection

23/04/25

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23/04/25

Brazil's Rifertil files for bankruptcy protection

Sao Paulo, 23 April (Argus) — Brazilian fertilizer producer Rifertil filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors, citing a debt load inflated by currency impacts, falling prices and tough sector conditions caused by drought last year. Rifertil's debts total R647.9mn ($112.7mn), according to a document seen by Argus , which was filed with the civil court of Rio Verde, in central-western Goias state. The request, also confirmed by the office of the company's attorney, was filed on 22 April and is now awaiting analysis by the Goias court. The bankruptcy protection filing highlights that the fertilizer sector has been facing difficulties since 2022, when nutrient prices were high because of the Covid-19 pandemic and, later, because of the beginning of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. At that time, predictions such as a shortage in the global fertilizer market contributed to an increase in fertilizer prices. But the forecasts did not materialize and prices fell in the following months, causing losses that have hit the company's cash flow since then. The document also highlights problems faced by producers in Goias, the company's main market and headquarters. Between the last quarter of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, many cities in Goias declared states of emergency because of drier than usual weather conditions. This contributed to a lack of liquidity for producers, hurting Brazil's agribusiness, especially from an increase in defaults from customers. Rifertil's attorney also said that the US dollar's strengthening to the Brazilian real throughout the second half of 2024 inflated the company's debt, since many products and services in the fertilizer sector are traded in US dollars. The company was founded in 2000 and its headquarters is in Rio Verde city, in Goias. It also has factories in Catalao city, Goias, and Maruim city, in northern Sergipe state. The three units' combined capacity is of 750,000 metric tonnes/yr. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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FERC commissioner Phillips resigns from agency

22/04/25

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22/04/25

FERC commissioner Phillips resigns from agency

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Democratic commissioner Willie Phillips has resigned from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) after serving more than three years at an agency responsible for permitting natural gas infrastructure and regulating wholesale power markets. Phillips' departure will clear the way for President Donald Trump to nominate a replacement at FERC, who once confirmed by the US Senate would provide Republicans a 3-2 majority for the first time since 2021. Phillips, whose term was not set to expire until June 2026, had a reputation for negotiating bipartisan deals on contentious orders involving pipelines and power market issues in the two years he served as FERC's chairman under former president Joe Biden. Phillips has yet to release a statement explaining his abrupt resignation. But Trump has already fired Democratic commissioners and board members at other agencies that, like FERC, are structured as independent from the White House. Two of the fired Democrats, who were serving at the US Federal Trade Commission, have filed a lawsuit that argues their removal was unlawful under a 1935 decision by the US Supreme Court. The White House did not respond to a question on whether it had pressured Phillips to resign. FERC chairman Mark Christie, a Republican, offered praise for Phillips as a "dedicated and selfless public servant" who sought to "find common ground and get things done to serve the public interest". Christie for months has been downplaying the threats to FERC's independence caused by Trump's executive order that asserts sweeping control over FERC's agenda. Energy companies have come to depend on FERC in serving as independent arbiter in disputes over pipeline tariffs and electricity markets, without the consideration of political preferences of the White House. Former FERC chairman Neil Chatterjee, a Republican who served in Trump's first term, said in a social media post it was "disappointing" to see Phillips pushed out after he "played it straight" in his work at the agency. As chairman, Phillips was able to authorize a "massive LNG project" — the 28mn t/yr CP2 project — at a time when Biden had sought to pause LNG licensing, Chatterjee said. Separately, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on 21 April, after the US Senate voted 52-44 earlier this month in favor of his confirmation. Atkins was previously the chief executive of financial consulting firm Patomak Global Partners and served as an SEC commissioner from 2002-08. Republicans will now have a 3-1 majority at the SEC. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bulk organic imports avoid US fees on Chinese ships

22/04/25

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22/04/25

Bulk organic imports avoid US fees on Chinese ships

Minneapolis, 22 April (Argus) — The fees imposed by the US on Chinese-built vessels will not significantly impact maritime organic imports to the US due to exceptions for small bulk vessels, but containerized imports will face some fees. The US announced Thursday that it will impose fees of $50/net ton (nt) on Chinese ship operators and $18/nt, or $120/container, on Chinese-built ships. Most organic imports to the US, especially for corn and organic soybeans, use bulk vessels to ship to the US. During the 2024-25 marketing year through March, no bulk vessel bringing organic corn and soy products into the country exceeded 70,000 dwt, according to bill of lading data. The fees will exclude any Chinese-built bulk vessel with a capacity of under 80,000 dwt, according to the US Trade Representative (USTR). As a result, bulk organic imports into the US will avoid these fees, even if imported on a Chinese ship. Some organic imports are brought in using containers. For a container with 21 metric tonnes (t) of organic soybeans, a fee of $120/container would be $0.16/bushel. The fee would be similar for a container of organic corn, but organic corn is rarely imported via container. The fee for a container with 21t of organic soybean meal will be $5.18/short ton. Some exporters to the US are more exposed to the fees on containers because of higher use of containerized freight. Shipments from the Black Sea used entirely bulk vessels over the past year, which will avoid the fees. Exporters in Africa and India, however, use containers for most exports and will be more exposed. Africa supplied 50pc of US maritime organic soybean meal imports during the 2023-24 marketing year, according to Argus estimates. All imports of organic soybeans from Argentina since last May used bulk vessels because of the higher cost of containerized freight to the US. If containerized freight rates between the US and Argentina fall, some organic commodities could be exported to the US by containers. Organic imports could also face some delays because of these fees, market contacts said. Some containers may wait at port longer until a non-Chinese-built vessel is available to ship the product to the US. This would lead to longer shipping times into the US and potentially to demurrage charges. The fees will take effect in October and will escalate over the next three years. The fees on a container brought in on a Chinese-built vessel will grow each year from $120/container in 2025 to reach $250/container in April 2028. By Alexander Schultz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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