Polish corn is unlikely to feel any significant effect if Poland lifts its ban on Ukrainian corn and other agri-product imports, as long as Ukrainian product continues to ship out of the country's deep-sea Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk (POC) ports.
Argus pegs Polish corn production in the 2023-24 marketing year (October-September) at a record-high 8.8mn t, but it pales in comparison with the 30.5mn t of Ukrainian corn output forecast.
Ukrainian corn exports to neighbouring Poland jumped to 181,000t in March 2022, averaging just 373 t/month in the previous five months. This followed the suspension of vessel movements from Ukraine's deep-sea ports on 24 February 2022.
Ukrainian corn shipments to Poland totalled 2.6mn t in March 2022-April 2023, averaging 186,900 t/month, according to customs data. Ukrainian corn may have made up the majority of Polish exports during that period, despite Poland's consecutive years of record corn production in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 marketing years, at 7.3mn t and 8.3mn t, respectively.
Ukrainian shipments to Poland dropped to nominal volumes from May, following the suspension of Ukrainian crop exports to Poland in mid-April, and the EU's introduction of a temporary ban on Ukrainian agri-imports to its five neighbouring countries on 2 May.
Before the EU ban, Ukrainian exporters could make only limited use of the country's Black Sea ports. This is no longer the case, and Ukraine has been actively shipping corn out of its POC ports, with 3.36mn t exported in January alone.
After the implementation of the EU ban, corn exports from Poland remained higher than a year prior, with some of the volumes potentially made up of previously imported Ukrainian-origin corn. Volumes shipped from Polish ports — excluding those imported from Ukraine — in May increased more than tenfold on the year, reaching their highest level since November 2021. And although exports trended lower in June-September, during Poland's pre-harvest period, volumes remained well above previous-year levels and even pre-February 2022 levels. After the harvest, corn exported from Poland in November 2023 reached a multi-year monthly high, customs data show (see chart).
But Polish corn exporters have struggled to find buyers on the international market, traders said, despite the absence of Ukrainian product competing at Polish ports. Firm Polish stocks are currently unavailable on either domestic or international corn markets because of a lack of sales from farmers, traders said, with demand concentrated on forward purchasing.
And demand for Polish corn could remain subdued in the coming months because of ample supply of feed grains globally.
