South Korean elections spark uncertainty for renewables

South Korea's nuclear strategy is likely to stay, regardless of the outcome of its 10 April national assembly elections, although a majority win for the People Power Party (PPP) could further threaten its renewable energy ambitions.

South Korea's national assembly elections will take place on 10 April, with neck-and-neck approval ratings so far for the PPP and Democratic Party (DP). Current president Yoon Suk-yeol is from the PPP, although the DP currently holds the majority seat in the national assembly with 163 of the 297 seats.

The incumbent Yoon administration has been expanding the domestic nuclear fleet, while at the same time cutting 2030 targets for hydrogen use in power generation. South Korea also recently released a host of measures as it aims to become "the world's nuclear energy powerhouse", with plans to develop 3.3 trillion won ($2.48bn) worth of nuclear power plant projects this year.

The country will likely see an even greater emphasis on nuclear power should the PPP take the majority in the general elections, while main rival DP's stance is more in favour of renewable energy and hydrogen, as opposed to nuclear power.

South Korea's final 2024 budget seemingly reflects lower prioritisation of its net zero goals, despite the DP making up the majority of the country's legislative body. This is in addition to the country seeking to solidify ties with the key energy-producing Mideast Gulf region, which hints it may likely continue relying on fossil fuels.

But South Korea seems largely committed to its hydrogen ambitions, as it continues to improve regulations in the industry this year. The country also previously announced it plans to open a clean hydrogen power generation market early this year.

Nuclear emphasis

But other factors such as South Korea's push to boost its exports to spur economic growth may continue to underpin South Korea's increasing reliance on nuclear power, also reflected in its lower coal-fired and gas-fired generation in 2023.

Notably, the Yoon administration is currently pushing to advance a South Korean-led global Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) Initiative. This initiative aims to expand all forms of energy sources that do not emit greenhouse gases (GHG), which notably includes nuclear power, as well as hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The country's trade, industry and energy ministry (Motie) has since published a document, in which it addresses speculation that the CFE initiative's aim is to expand nuclear power, stating that it "does not discriminate between renewable and nuclear energy".

"What we need is an inclusive approach that can propel our industries to reach the greater goal of carbon neutrality at a minimum cost by utilising a variety of carbon-free energy sources," said Carbon Free Alliance chairperson Lee Hoesung, who is also the former chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in late January.

South Korea hopes to see global uptake of the initiative, with 20 major domestic companies currently participating in the CFA. This is in comparison to the RE100 initiative, which only includes renewable energy, but has over 400 global members. It is also worth noting that South Korea's budget for this year is based on boosting exports to spur economic growth, with one of its key exports being nuclear technology and equipment, which is a possible reason why the country would be invested in seeing more uptake of nuclear power globally.

Policy continuity

South Korea's upcoming general elections are not likely to result in major energy policy changes, even if there is a significant change in the make-up of the National Assembly. But the same cannot be said for the country's presidential elections.

DP-affiliated former president Moon Jae-in previously enacted plans to phase out nuclear power during his leadership, with ambitious emissions targets. But the country did a U-turn on its stance on nuclear power when current president Yoon replaced Moon in 2022. This included resuming nuclear reactor construction and raising nuclear capacity, after it was reduced under the previous administration.

But Yoon has been in office for about two years and his term only ends in 2027, so the country's policies are likely to stay largely consistent for the foreseeable future, although how they will pan out beyond that remains to be seen.

By Tng Yong Li