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Panama Canal to restrict May transits on work

  • Market: Agriculture, Coal, Crude oil, Freight, LPG, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
  • 09/04/24

Maintenance at the Panama Canal for the Panamax locks, responsible for around 70pc of all ship crossings at the waterway, will cut the daily number of vessel transits through these locks for nine days in mid-May, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) said today.

The ACP said it will reduce Panamax lock transits from 7 May to 14 May by three to a total of 17. The cuts entail two fewer "super" category slots for vessels like medium range (MR) tankers and Supramax bulkers and one fewer "regular" category slot for smaller vessels.

An additional day of downtime "allowing 24 hours for unforeseeable maintenance delays" will put the projected end-date for maintenance and the return to 20 total Panamax lock transits on 16 May, according to the ACP, constituting a nine-day reduced-transit period that should drop total transits in the period by around 27 vessels.

The potential for heightened competition amid a backlog of vessels vying to transit during this time could be mitigated by assigning "additional transits per day for each vessel category" based on the canal's "daily water consumption quota", according to the ACP.

"These additional slots may be assigned to booked vessels that have already arrived at canal waters," the ACP said. "This measure is a temporary service subject to operational assessment, open to all vessel types based on the arrival date."

The maintenance will primarily target the west lane of the Gatun locks, where ships enter the Panama Canal from the Atlantic basin, while the ACP noted that the east lane of the Miraflores locks on the Pacific side will undergo a simultaneous maintenance period from 11-12 May.

Panamax lock transit auction prices hit low

The average cost for ship operators to win an auction to transit the Panama Canal via the Panamax locks hit its lowest level Monday since Argus began the assessment in January on lower demand, particularly for dry bulkers utilizing alternative routings, and an uptick in auction slots in early March.

"Since the peak period last year, auction prices have leveled off. They are generally near normal levels today," said the ACP.

The rate for a Panamax lock auction dropped by $14,173 to $94,314, the lowest average price to transit since 26 January and representing a drop of $450,936 from the high hit on 5 February on a jump in demand ahead of lunar new year holidays across Asia-Pacific.

Of the smaller dry bulkers that can fit in the Panamax locks, only 34 Handysize, 38 Supramax, and 31 Ultramax bulkers transited the Panama Canal in March compared with the 92 Handysize, 66 Supramax, and 88 Ultramax bulkers that transited in March 2023, the lowest number of transits in March for these segments through 2017, according to Kpler data.

Dry bulk Panama Canal transits down, tanker transits stabilizing

The share of dry bulkers utilizing the Panamax locks at the Panama Canal was at 15.2pc of total transits in February, down from the 25.5pc share that dry bulkers held in September 2023, according to ACP data, before the ACP instituted daily vessel restrictions and the current prebooking/auction slot system supplanted the previous, first-come, first-serve waiting system in late October 2023.

Meanwhile, 149 MR tankers transited in March, down from the 169 that transited in the same period the year prior but up from the 107 MRs that crossed the canal in February. MR transits have risen every year in March, according to Kpler, as west coast South America diesel demand jumps on the resurgence of refinery utilization in the US Gulf coast after the first quarter turnaround season draws to a close.

Crude, product, and chemical tanker transits rose by 1.7 percentage points to 30.3pc, making up the plurality of all Panamax lock transits collectively in February from September 2023, according to ACP data.

The uptick in available Panamax lock auctions in early March has likely offset the steady demand for these vessels and contributed to the downward pressure on auction prices, while the reduced transits during the upcoming nine days of maintenance could reverse this trend in the short term.

ACP expects transit restrictions to lift by 2025

In the long term, the Panama Canal expects a return to normalcy within the next two years, beginning with the start of the rainy season in the coming weeks.

"Current forecasts indicate that steady rainfall will arrive in late April and continue for a few months," the ACP said today. "If this remains the case, the canal plans to gradually ease transit restrictions, allowing conditions to fully normalize by 2025."


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26/07/24

Technical issues shut Japanese crackers, delay restarts

Technical issues shut Japanese crackers, delay restarts

Singapore, 26 July (Argus) — A series of technical issues forced Japanese cracker operators to shut their units or delay restarts in July, resulting in lower olefins output and higher spot demand. Idemitsu Kosan shut its naphtha cracker in Tokuyama, Yamaguchi prefecture on 15 July, because of gas leakage at its complex. The cracker can produce up to 623,000 t/yr ethylene and 370,000 t/yr propylene. Associated downstream units at the Tokuyama site are likely still operating, resulting in spot demand for prompt ethylene cargoes in the Japanese market, according to market participants. The restart date of the cracker remains unclear, with some market sources saying that the cracker could be on line again in first-half of August. But others said the cracker will be off line until end of August to coincide with Idemitsu Kosan's planned maintenance schedule. Idemitsu Kosan originally planned to shut the Tokuyama-based cracker in September for a 50-day turnaround. The firm declined to comment on the turnaround schedule, citing that the cracker remains shut and it is unsure when it can resume operations. Mitsui's cracker in Sakai, Osaka prefecture also encountered technical issues during its cracker restart. The producer has completed the turnaround, which took place in early July, but will need to procure equipment to address technical issues for the cracker start-up, market participants said. Mitsui's cracker has a nameplate capacity of 600,000 t/yr of ethylene and 280,000 t/yr of propylene. Fellow producer Maruzen Petrochemical also delayed the restart of its cracker in the Chiba prefecture. The cracker was shut on 15 May and was supposed to restart by mid-July. The shutdown has been extended to the end ofJuly, according to market participants. The reason behind the extensions were unclear. Maruzen's Chiba cracker has a production capacity of 525,000 t/yr of ethylene and 335,000 t/yr of propylene. Tighter supplies Shutdown extensions and sudden outages at crackers have tightened olefins supplies in northeast Asia, with Chinese market participants reporting limited offers this week. Asian ethylene prices in the cfr northeast Asia market rose slightly this week to $860-880/t, up by $8/t from the last session, according to Argus ' latest assessments on 24 July. Japan experienced a heavy cracker turnaround season this year, with four crackers conducting scheduled maintenance in the first-half of 2024. Eneos' cracker in Kawasaki prefecture was shut from 5 March until mid-May. Tosoh's Yokkaichi cracker in Mie prefecture was also shut for maintenance from 4 March to the end of April. Keiyo Ethylene's cracker in Chiba prefecture went off line on 10 April for a 14-day planned maintenance. Mitsubishi Chemical's cracker in Kashima, Ibaraki prefecture was shut from May to June. Total ethylene exports from Japan this year are expected to fall from the previous year because of heavy cracker turnarounds. Japan's ethylene exports were at 239,642t during January-May, down by 5,733t from the same period in 2023, according to GTT data. Imports were at 20,296t from January to May, up by 13,500t or almost tripling on the year. By Nanami Oki, Brian Leonal and Toong Shien Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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South Africa adopts climate change law


25/07/24
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25/07/24

South Africa adopts climate change law

Cape Town, 25 July (Argus) — South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa has signed into law the country's climate change bill, which sets out a national response to climate change for the first time. The new climate change act will enable the orderly reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the implementation of sectoral emission targets towards South Africa's commitment to reach net zero by 2050. Currently, the country is the 15th largest GHG emitter in the world, according to the World Resources Institute. The law provides policy guidelines to ensure South Africa reaches its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris climate agreement by assigning individual enterprises carbon budgets and facilitating public disclosure of their progress. In its updated 2021 NDC, the country has undertaken to cut its GHG emissions to 350mn-420mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), equivalent to 19-32pc below 2010 levels, by 2030. The lower end of this range is in line with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C global warming threshold. To meet this, South Africa will have to achieve a steep decline in coal-fired electricity generation. A carbon tax is seen as a vital component of the country's mitigation strategy, according to the president. "By internalising the cost of carbon emissions, carbon tax incentivises companies to reduce their carbon footprint and invest in cleaner technologies, and also generates revenue for climate initiatives," Ramaphosa said. South Africa's carbon tax was introduced in a phased approach in June 2019 at a rate of 120 rands/t ($7/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) and increased to R134/t of CO2e by the end of 2022. But tax-free allowances for energy-intensive sectors such as mining, and iron and steel, along with state-owned utility Eskom's exemption, implied an initial effective carbon tax rate as low as R6-48/t of CO2e. South Africa's National Treasury is targeting an increase to $30/t of CO2e by 2030. But the extension of phase one from the end of 2022 to the end of 2025, together with an uncertain future price trajectory and lack of clarity on future exemptions, means the effective carbon tax rate is likely to remain well below the IMF's recommended $50/t of CO2e by 2030 for emerging markets. The new climate change act seeks to align South Africa's climate change policies and strengthen co-ordination between different departments to ensure the country's transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy is not constrained by any policy contradictions. It outlines South Africa's planned mitigation and adaptation actions aimed at cutting GHG emissions over time, while reducing the risk of job losses and promoting new employment opportunities in the emerging green economy. The law also places a legal obligation on provinces and municipalities to ensure climate change risks and associated vulnerabilities are acted upon, while providing mechanisms for national government to offer additional financial support for these efforts. The new act formally establishes the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) as a statutory body tasked with providing advice on the country's climate change response. Among other things, the PCC is developing proposals for a just transition financing mechanism, for which a platform will be launched in the next few months. Over the last three years, South Africa has seen an increase in extreme weather events often with disastrous consequences for poor communities and vulnerable groups. To address the substantial gap between available disaster funds and the cost of disaster response, the government announced in February that it would establish a climate change response fund. At the time of the announcement, Ramaphosa reiterated that South Africa would undertake its just energy transition "at a pace, scale and cost that our country can afford and in a manner that ensures energy security". Elaine Mills Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Yemen warring factions reach UN-mediated financial deal


25/07/24
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25/07/24

Yemen warring factions reach UN-mediated financial deal

Dubai, 25 July (Argus) — The UAE today welcomed a UN-mediated agreement between Yemen's warring factions that could allay economic woes in the impoverished country. The UAE's ministry of foreign affairs hailed the 23 July announcement of an agreement between the internationally recognised Yemen presidential leadership council (PLC) and the Houthi militant group "with respect to airlines and the banking sector." The UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia, support the PLC. The agreement stipulates "cancelling all the recent decisions and procedures against banks by both sides and refraining in the future from any similar decisions or procedures," and calls for the resumption of Yemenia Airways' flights between Sana'a and Jordan at three a day and operating flights to Cairo and India "daily or as needed." The deal was reached two days after Israeli jets bombed the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeidah. The internationally-recognised central bank in Aden in April ordered financial institutions to move their main operations from Houthi-held territory within 60 days or face sanctions. That deadline ran out in June, leading to a ban on dealing with six banks whose headquarters remained in Houthi-held Sana'a. The Houthis retaliated by taking similar measures against banks in PLC-held areas and seized four Yemenia Airways planes at Sana'a airport. The PLC said it hoped the Houthis would also meet a commitment to resume crude exports. Yemen's crude production collapsed soon after the start of the country's civil war, from around 170,000 b/d in 2011-13 to 50,000-60,000 b/d in 2022, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Data from analytics firm Kpler suggests Yemen has not exported any crude since October 2022. Threats yield results The Iran-backed Houthis earlier in July threatened to attack vital infrastructure such as airports and ports in Saudi Arabia, holding Riyadh responsible for decisions taken by Aden's central bank. The Houthis struck central Tel Aviv on 19 July, inviting an Israeli retaliation that took out a power station that supplies the Red Sea coastal city of Hodeidah and its port and fuel tanks, which are controlled by the Houthis. A breakthrough in the UN-mediated talks between the PLC and the Houthis resulted in the agreement on 22 July, a possible sign that Riyadh might have compromised to avoid a Houthi escalation. The Houthis have been attacking commercial ships in and around the Red Sea since November last year, six weeks after the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war, in what they say is an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US-Australia’s Coronado to lift coal sales


25/07/24
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25/07/24

US-Australia’s Coronado to lift coal sales

Sydney, 25 July (Argus) — US-Australian coal producer Coronado Coal will boost coal sales during July-December despite logistical challenges, as it maintains its output guidance of 16.4mn-17.2mn t for 2024. The firm sold 7.8mn t of coal during January-June, leaving it a target of 8.6mn t for July-December to meet the bottom of its 2024 guidance . It has maintained this guidance despite warning that shipments from its Australian Curragh mine will be affected by a two-week rail disruption from the end of July . Coronado operates the Curragh mine in Queensland and two mining complexes in the US' Virginia. All produce coking and thermal coal. Coronado's revenues were supported during April-June compared with January-March by a smaller discount for pulverised injection coal (PCI) against hard coking coal prices, which saw the PCI price rise while other metallurgical coal prices were under pressure. Its sales prices will remain strong in July-September, forecasts chief executive Douglas Thompson, on restocking in India and the rail disruption in Queensland, as well as the fire at Anglo American's Grosvenor mine that will disrupt Australian exports. Thompson warned that there was some downside risk of $5-10/t to Australian PCI pricing but if this was realised it will see China restart buying from Australia. In the long term he expects more competition from Russia-origin PCI, as Russian coal producers find new routes to the seaborne market and regain market share lost because of an European embargo. The premium for premium hard coal prices over PCI coal prices has shrunk to around $30/t from $145/t over the past six months. Argus last assessed the premium hard low-volatile price at $224/t fob Australia on 24 July and the PCI low-volatile price at $193.65/t. Coronado's group sales volumes were up 8.3pc to 4.1mn t in April-June compared with January-March , reflecting higher sales from its Australian and US operations. The increase in volumes combined with reduced need to remove waste materials allowed Coronado to cut is mining costs by 27.5pc from the previous quarter to an average of $91.10/t of coal sold. The firm expects costs to fall further in July-December as it demobilises more of its mining fleet at its Curragh mine. This reflects reduced waste removal and should have no impact of coal production at Curragh, Thompson said. Production at Curragh should increase in the second half of 2024, with 100,000t of coal production deferred from June to July because of heavy rainfall. By Jo Clarke Coronado Coal (mn t) Apr-Jun '24 Jan-Mar '24 Apr-Jun '23 Jan-Jun '24 Jan-Jun '23 Sales (mn t) Australia (Curragh) 2.7 2.5 2.5 5.2 4.7 US 1.4 1.2 1.5 2.6 3.0 Total 4.1 3.7 4.0 7.8 7.6 Sales data % coking coal of total sales 81.0 78.7 76.0 79.9 75.3 Australian realised met coal price (fob) ($/t) 216.2 225.2 237.7 220.5 239.7 US realised met coal price (for) ($/t) 161.7 170.9 196.0 166.0 215.5 Source: Coronado Australian coal price comparisons ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q


25/07/24
News
25/07/24

Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q

London, 25 July (Argus) — TotalEnergies said today that a worsening performance at its downstream Refining & Chemicals business and its Integrated LNG segment led to a 7pc year-on-year decline in profit in the second quarter. Profit of $3.79bn was down from $5.72bn for the January-March quarter and from $4.09bn in the second quarter of 2023. When adjusted for inventory effects and special items, profit was $4.67bn — slightly lower than analysts had been expecting and 6pc down on the immediately preceding quarter. The biggest hit to profits was at the Refining & Chemicals segment, which reported an adjusted operating profit of $639mn for the April-June period, a 36pc fall on the year. Earlier in July, TotalEnergies had flagged lower refining margins in Europe and the Middle East, with its European Refining Margin Marker down by 37pc to $44.9/t compared with the first quarter. This margin decline was partially compensated for by an increase in its refineries' utilisation rate: to 84pc in April-June from 79pc in the first quarter. The company's Integrated LNG business saw a 13pc year on year decline in its adjusted operating profit, to $1.15bn. TotalEnergies cited lower LNG prices and sales, and said its gas trading operation "did not fully benefit in markets characterised by lower volatility than during the first half of 2023." A bright spot was the Exploration & Production business, where adjusted operating profit rose by 14pc on the year to $2.67bn. This was mainly driven by higher oil prices, which were partially offset by lower gas realisations and production. The company's second-quarter production averaged 2.44mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), down by 1pc from 2.46mn boe/d reported for the January-March period and from the 2.47mn boe/d average in the second quarter of 2023. TotalEnergies attributed the quarter-on-quarter decline to a greater level of planned maintenance, particularly in the North Sea. But it said its underlying production — excluding the Canadian oil sands assets it sold last year — was up by 3pc on the year. This was largely thanks to the start up and ramp up of projects including Mero 2 offshore Brazil, Block 10 in Oman, Tommeliten Alpha and Eldfisk North in Norway, Akpo West in Nigeria and Absheron in Azerbaijan. TotalEnergies said production also benefited from its entry into the producing fields Ratawi, in Iraq, and Dorado in the US. The company expects production in a 2.4mn-2.45mn boe/d range in the third quarter, when its Anchor project in the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to start up. The company increased profit at its Integrated Power segment, which contains its renewables and gas-fired power operations. Adjusted operating profit rose by 12pc year-on-year to $502mn and net power production rose by 10pc to 9.1TWh. TotalEnergies' cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.78bn in April-June — an 8pc fall from a year earlier. The company has maintained its second interim dividend for 2024 at €0.79/share and plans to buy back up to $2bn of its shares in the third quarter, in line with its repurchases in previous quarters. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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