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Latest market news

Opec sticks to demand forecasts, nudges down supply

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 11/04/24

Opec has stuck to its bullish global oil demand growth forecast this year, while once again nudging down its projection for non-Opec liquids supply growth.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec forecasts oil demand to grow by 2.25mn b/d this year, a level unchanged since it first published a projection for 2024 in July of last year. It kept its demand growth projection for 2025 unchanged at 1.85mn b/d.

Other forecasters such as the IEA, EIA and even Saudi state-controlled Aramco, see much lower levels of growth this year. The closest known projection to Opec comes from trading firm Vitol, which this week said it expected oil demand to grow by 1.9mn b/d in 2024.

Opec's latest numbers show a tightening market. It downgraded its non-Opec liquids production growth forecast for this year by 70,000 b/d to 990,000 b/d, leaving the total for the year at 70.44mn b/d. The group also downgraded its non-Opec liquids supply growth forecast for 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 1.3mn b/d.

Opec has introduced a new liquids supply section in its balances termed 'non-DOC liquids supply,' which essentially reflects all global liquids production excluding Opec's 12 members and the 10 non-Opec members of the wider Opec+ alliance. Non-DOC liquids supply is projected at 53mn b/d in 2024.

Opec crude production was almost unchanged at 26.60mn b/d in March, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. This is around 1.9mn b/d below Opec's projected call on its own members crude for 2024, which it sees at 28.46mn b/d.

By Aydin Calik

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19/12/25

Trinidad not part of US blockade of Venezuela: PM

Trinidad not part of US blockade of Venezuela: PM

Kingston, 19 December (Argus) — Trinidad and Tobago is not involved in the US blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving from neighboring Venezuela, prime minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said on Thursday. She rejected a Venezuelan government claim that her country is part of US president Donald Trump's current campaign against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and that it is supporting "the theft of Venezuelan oil." "We have no intention of engaging in any war with Venezuela," Persad-Bissessar said. But Trinidad's foreign ministry said on 15 December that the US is using the country's two airports for "logistical activities," including resupply for US operations and personnel rotations. Venezuelan vice-president Delcy Rodriguez accused Persad-Bissessar of being "hostile" to Venezuela, saying she "has turned her country into a US aircraft carrier to attack Venezuela, in an unequivocal act of vassalage." The US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela since September and has destroyed several small boats in the area it said were carrying drugs, killing more than 80 people. Trump said in November he would order land strikes against Venezuela soon, and the US seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude earlier this month. Trinidad's rejection of the Venezuelan claims follow a standoff between the hydrocarbon producers over agreements to develop an offshore natural gas field in Venezuelan waters close to their maritime border that has an estimated 4.3 Tcf in reserves. Trinidad described a Venezuelan decision to terminate all natural gas supply contracts with it as "propaganda". The southwestern tip of gas-short Trinidad is 11 miles from Venezuela's north coast, and the country has been seeking gas from Venezuelan offshore fields to support up declining domestic output. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

19/12/25
News
19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US House passes bill to expedite permitting

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

London, 18 December (Argus) — UK-listed upstream producer Ithaca Energy has begun the approval process for a development in the North Sea, the first since the government softened its approach to the region. Ithaca has submitted a development summary and environmental statement for the Fotla field to the offshore regulator Opred. It outlines a two-well tie-back to the Britannia platform, which processes liquids from the Greater Britannia Area, including Ithaca's Alder field. Ithaca indicates that if the process is successful, drilling will begin in the first half of 2027, with first oil in the final quarter of that year. This is the first submission of an offshore proposal since the UK government published its 'North Sea Future Plan' alongside its budget in late November. That enables "limited oil and gas production in areas that are already part of an existing field, or in areas adjacent to already licensed fields, linked via a tieback, to help ensure they remain economically viable". Developers are not permitted to explore for oil and gas at these sites, and a ban remains on new oil and gas licensing. London's stance on North Sea development has delayed the Rosebank project, in which Ithaca holds a 20pc stake, and the company's west of Shetland Cambo project. Ithaca expects its production to average 119,000-125,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) this year. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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BP appoints Woodside’s O’Neill as next CEO

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

BP appoints Woodside’s O’Neill as next CEO

New York, 17 December (Argus) — BP appointed Woodside Energy chief executive officer Meg O'Neill as its next chief executive effective from next April. O'Neill will replace Murray Auchincloss, who has decided to step down on 18 December after more than three decades with the London-based oil major. O'Neill transformed Woodside into the biggest energy company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange after taking over as chief executive in 2021, according to BP. While at Woodside, she also oversaw the acquisition of BHP Petroleum International. O'Neill also spent more than two decades at ExxonMobil earlier in her career. "Her proven track record of driving transformation, growth, and disciplined capital allocation makes her the right leader for BP," said Albert Manifold, chairman of the company's board of directors. Carol Howle, executive vice president, supply, trading & shipping of BP, will serve as interim chief executive until O'Neill takes over. Auchincloss will also serve in an advisory role until December 2026 to ensure a smooth transition. BP scaled back ambitious low-carbon goals earlier this year with Auchincloss conceding that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced." The company raised its 2030 target for oil and gas production as part of a "fundamental reset" of strategy that also entailed a cut in renewable energy investments. O'Neill's appointment follows a search process overseen by the board, with the help of an independent recruitment firm, as part of the company's long-term succession planning. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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