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US biodiesel faces poor production economics

  • Market: Biofuels
  • 19/04/24

US biodiesel producers are facing worsening production economics, as evidenced by a deteriorating correlation between the soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread and biomass-based diesel D4 renewable information number (RIN) credits.

Historically, tighter values in the BOHO spread, an indicator of soybean oil-based biodiesel production margins, have applied downward pressure to D4 RIN values, as biodiesel producerschange their credit position, depending on the economics of their operation.

But rising renewable diesel production has swelled the supply of D4 RINS, reducing credit values and making it harder for producers to monetize RIN credits, as the correlation between the two production factors deteriorates.

Regression analysis measuring the effect of the BOHO spread on the next month's D4 price shows a decoupling of the relationship in recent years, with BOHO in the last two years about half as predictive of the change in D4 credit prices as it was in the years since 2016.

The least correlated periods were in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter this year. In those quarters, the predictability of the BOHO spread came to 32pc and 34pc, respectively, meaning they were not predictive. The drop coincided with falling credit prices as substantial growth in renewable diesel production oversupplied the D4 RIN market. Unlike biodiesel, renewable diesel draws from a more diverse pool of feedstocks including beef tallow and used cooking oil, making renewable diesel production economics less dependent on soybean oil.

D4 RINs have fallen at a faster rate than BOHO over the last year. D4 credits averaged 58.2¢/RIN in the first quarter, down by roughly two-thirds on the year, while BOHO narrowed by 49pc to 79.64¢/USG in the same period. D4 RIN equivalence, a 1.5x multiplier applied to the RIN value that factors in the amount of generated RINs/USG of biodiesel produced, averaged a 7.66¢/USG premium to BOHO in the first quarter, down from 87.73¢/USG a year earlier, leaving producers less room to profit from producing biodiesel.

D4 RIN equivalence ended the first quarter at a discount to BOHO, averaging 9.6¢/USG less than BOHO from 6 March-31 March, and obligated parties have had trouble recouping production costs using RINs.

Current production fundamentals could force smaller soybean oil-based biodiesel producers to reduce output in the second half of the year, as some producers have not reached purchase agreements for that period, according to market participants.

Some facilities have closed. In March, Chevron REG announced the closure of two biodiesel plants in Wisconsin and Iowa "due to market conditions."

D4 Prices Vs BOHO Spread $

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Fulcrum Bioenergy files for Chapter 11 relief

Fulcrum Bioenergy files for Chapter 11 relief

New York, 13 September (Argus) — A US company that had set ambitious plans to convert garbage into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and attracted investments from major airlines and energy companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week. Fulcrum Bioenergy and subsidiaries filed for relief before the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware on Monday, estimating outstanding obligations to over 200 creditors at more than $456mn. A lawyer representing Fulcrum, Robert Dehney, said at a Thursday hearing that the company was on the verge of declaring Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which typically involves liquidation of assets, before a late-breaking bid from an interested company prompted a change in plans. Fulcrum chief restructuring officer Mark Smith said in a declaration to the court that the company wants to initiate the sales process and move through the chapter 11 process on an "expeditious timeline." Judge Thomas Horan on Thursday preliminarily approved various first-day motions, including a request to continue paying Fulcrum's handful of remaining employees. Fulcrum began initial operations at its flagship Nevada facility in 2022, becoming the first company to commercialize a clean fuels pathway based on gasifying garbage and signing offtake agreements with BP, United Airlines, and others. The process at the Nevada site involved receiving and sorting landfill waste, converting that to a synthetic crude oil through a gasification process, and then sending that feedstock to a Marathon Petroleum refinery to be processed into a usable low-carbon fuel. Fulcrum eventually wanted to be able to upgrade the synthetic crude into SAF on site. An archived version of the Fulcrum website, which is no longer online, also set plans for eventual biorefineries and feedstock processing facilities in Indiana, along the US Gulf coast, and in the UK and said its suite of facilities could ultimately support 400mn USG/yr of production capacity. But Fulcrum has reported few updates on its progress more recently, and there were signs of financial struggles. Multiple contractors have filed lawsuits alleging missed payments, while UMB Bank indicated in October last year that Fulcrum had defaulted on debt obligations. The Nevada site ceased operations in May and plans for other US facilities are apparently on hold, though filings indicate that Fulcrum has not yet determined whether to begin restructuring proceedings for any subsidiaries outside the US. Fulcrum's business "represents a revolutionary idea," Smith said in his declaration, but "as with all cutting-edge businesses, the cost of innovation has been born through delays in operations and the inability to anticipate issues based on prior ventures and experiences." There were necessary equipment changes after initial operations begun, but these were expensive and affected by supply chain delays, he said. It is unclear how much feedstock was successfully delivered to Marathon, which declined to comment. The Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific, which had signed an offtake agreement with Fulcrum, told Argus that it never received any SAF. Other companies that had signed offtake agreements did not immediately respond to requests for comment or declined to comment. Fulcrum had been soliciting interest from potential buyers for months and finalized an agreement with a company called Switch LTD, which agreed this month to offer a "stalking horse" bid to purchase Fulcrum's assets for $15mn and issue a loan of up to $5mn to fund Fulcrum's bankruptcy cases. A stalking horse bidding method is a way to arrive at a minimum bid price that other prospective buyers then must exceed. Filings before the court this week did not elaborate on the nature of Switch's business or its reasons for wanting to acquire Fulcrum's assets. Dehney described Switch as a "disinterested third party" and said that Fulcrum has received other interest from prospective buyers, some eyeing all of Fulcrum's assets and some just looking at physical property, intellectual property, or the UK subsidiary specifically. Failure to launch The idea of gasifying waste to produce fuel has long been attractive, since feedstock costs would be low and the Fischer-Tropsch chemical process to convert synthetic gas to liquids has been known for decades. Demand for low-carbon alternatives to jet fuel is high among major airlines, some of which have government mandates to meet or voluntary goals to rapidly scale up SAF consumption by 2030. While Fulcrum's Chapter 11 filing "was not really a surprise" given its recent financial troubles, it could give investors pause about future projects aiming to use similar technology, according to BloombergNEF renewable fuels senior associate Jade Patterson. The large majority of SAF capacity currently and the bulk of planned capacity additions through 2030 come from the more established method of hydroprocessing non-petroleum feedstocks like fats, oils, and greases, Patterson said. Efforts to build gas-to-liquids facilities, by comparison, have faced delays and financial challenges. Red Rock Biofuels had aimed for a refinery converting forest waste to begin operations in 2020 , but the company that later acquired the Oregon site at auction is now targeting a 2026 launch for its clean fuels facility. And Fulcrum's plans for converting waste into fuel go back more than a decade, having inked its first deal with a municipal solid waste supplier in 2008. Kickstarting a market for a novel fuel pathway has also not been helped by a dip over the last year for prices of US federal and state environmental credits, which function as a crucial source of revenue for biofuel producers. There is also uncertainty about how much federal subsidy certain fuels will earn when an Inflation Reduction Act tax credit for low-carbon fuels kicks off next year. But other gas-to-liquids companies are marching on — including DG Fuels, whose president told Argus last month that the company plans to reach a final investment decision by the first quarter next year on a potentially 178mn USG/yr SAF plant in Louisiana that will gasify biomass. The company has earlier-stage plans for similar facilities in Maine and Nebraska. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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