US biodiesel faces poor production economics
US biodiesel producers are facing worsening production economics, as evidenced by a deteriorating correlation between the soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread and biomass-based diesel D4 renewable information number (RIN) credits.
Historically, tighter values in the BOHO spread, an indicator of soybean oil-based biodiesel production margins, have applied downward pressure to D4 RIN values, as biodiesel producerschange their credit position, depending on the economics of their operation.
But rising renewable diesel production has swelled the supply of D4 RINS, reducing credit values and making it harder for producers to monetize RIN credits, as the correlation between the two production factors deteriorates.
Regression analysis measuring the effect of the BOHO spread on the next month's D4 price shows a decoupling of the relationship in recent years, with BOHO in the last two years about half as predictive of the change in D4 credit prices as it was in the years since 2016.
The least correlated periods were in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter this year. In those quarters, the predictability of the BOHO spread came to 32pc and 34pc, respectively, meaning they were not predictive. The drop coincided with falling credit prices as substantial growth in renewable diesel production oversupplied the D4 RIN market. Unlike biodiesel, renewable diesel draws from a more diverse pool of feedstocks including beef tallow and used cooking oil, making renewable diesel production economics less dependent on soybean oil.
D4 RINs have fallen at a faster rate than BOHO over the last year. D4 credits averaged 58.2¢/RIN in the first quarter, down by roughly two-thirds on the year, while BOHO narrowed by 49pc to 79.64¢/USG in the same period. D4 RIN equivalence, a 1.5x multiplier applied to the RIN value that factors in the amount of generated RINs/USG of biodiesel produced, averaged a 7.66¢/USG premium to BOHO in the first quarter, down from 87.73¢/USG a year earlier, leaving producers less room to profit from producing biodiesel.
D4 RIN equivalence ended the first quarter at a discount to BOHO, averaging 9.6¢/USG less than BOHO from 6 March-31 March, and obligated parties have had trouble recouping production costs using RINs.
Current production fundamentals could force smaller soybean oil-based biodiesel producers to reduce output in the second half of the year, as some producers have not reached purchase agreements for that period, according to market participants.
Some facilities have closed. In March, Chevron REG announced the closure of two biodiesel plants in Wisconsin and Iowa "due to market conditions."
Related news posts
BZ Credits near 5 year high after 2023 blending
BZ Credits near 5 year high after 2023 blending
Houston, 12 September (Argus) — Higher volumes of ethylbenzene (EB) into gasoline blending a year ago has led to a credit shortage, pushing prices to their highest levels since March 2021. In 2022 and 2023, US Gulf coast (USGC) naphtha inventories were long as US naphtha exports declined from 400,000-500,000b/d pre-pandemic to 100,000-200,000b/d. Over the same span of time, refiners and blenders dropped excess naphtha, a sub-octane blendstock, into the gasoline pool. This blend of gasoline spurred demand for high-octane blendstocks like EB, toluene and mixed xylenes into gasoline blending. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires gasoline with benzene content above a certain threshold to be offset by a credit generated by refining compliant gasoline. The elevated blending of EB exhausted the supply of benzene credits on the open market, which bled into 2024. Credits traded near 100¢/USG early in 2024 and rose to as high as 190¢/USG over the summer. Values now span buyer interest at 160¢/USG and seller interest at 190¢/USG. The compliance deadline for benzene credit submission is set for 31 March 2025, in which refiners must mass-balance their production over a given year and either face a credit surplus for being over-compliant or a shortage and therefore will need to procure credits on the open market. By Jake Caldwell and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Norfolk Southern replaces CEO with CFO
Norfolk Southern replaces CEO with CFO
Washington, 12 September (Argus) — Eastern Class I railroad Norfolk Southern (NS) has appointed a new chief executive, replacing former executive Alan Shaw after determining he violated company policies by having a consensual relationship with the company's chief legal officer. NS' board announced late Wednesday that it had promoted chief financial officer Mark George to replace Shaw. The board said Monday it was investigating Shaw for potential misconduct in actions not consistent with NS' code of ethics and policies, but did not provide details. The railroad yesterday clarified that Shaw's departure was not related to the railroad's "performance, financial reporting and results of operations". Instead, the board voted unanimously to terminate Shaw with cause, effective immediately, for violating policies by engaging in a consensual relationship chief legal officer Nabanita Nag. She was also dismissed by NS. Shaw worked at NS for 30 years and was appointed chief executive in May 2021, following six years as chief marketing officer. Earlier this year he led NS through a proxy fight with a group of activist investors that sought his replacement. The overall effort failed but the challengers secured three seats on the board . The investors had been displeased with the railroad's financial performance and "tone deaf response" to the February 2023 derailment in East Palestine, Ohio . New chief executive George had served as NS' chief financial officer since 2019. Prior to that, he held roles at several companies including United Technologies Corporation and its subsidiaries. "The board has full confidence in Mark and his ability to continue delivering on our commitments to shareholders and other stakeholders," NS chairman and former Canadian National chief executive Claude Mongeau said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
South Korea's SK to begin SAF output at Ulsan in Oct
South Korea's SK to begin SAF output at Ulsan in Oct
London, 11 September (Argus) — South Korean refiner SK Energy said it has completed a dedicated sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production line at its 840,000 b/d Ulsan refinery and will begin commercial output next month. The firm said it plans to use co-processing methods, integrating bio-feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats with traditional oil production processes to produce SAF alongside conventional oil products. A 5km pipeline will feed renewable feedstocks to the refinery, enabling continuous production of SAF and other low-carbon products, SK said. According to the company, it is South Korea's first dedicated SAF facility. SK said it obtained multiple certifications for SAF production and sales in June, including ISCC Corsia, ISCC EU and ISCC Plus. It plans to supply SAF to Korean Air for passenger flights from early 2025. The company will continue to monitor domestic and global policies and market conditions to explore the expansion of its SAF production capabilities, SK's head of strategy division Hong Kwang-pyo said. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Biofuel, farm groups file suit over EPA auto standards
Biofuel, farm groups file suit over EPA auto standards
Houston, 10 September (Argus) — Road fuel industry representatives have filed suit before the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit challenging the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) finalization of tailpipe emissions standards. The finalized EPA standards would force automakers to decrease the CO2 emissions of cars and trucks made between 2027 and 2032. The brief draws support from 56 groups, ranging from agriculture labor unions, the automotive industry and the American Farm Bureau Federation to organizations representing shipping, retail fuel distributors, petroleum refiners, biofuel producers, manufacturing, and corn grower associations. Several petitioners behind the brief filed a lawsuit in June of this year following regulations that the EPA said would cut road fuel consumption by 2.6mn b/d. The petitioners assert the claim that the EPA lacks statutory authority to regulate tailpipe emissions and that the regulations currently in place would favor electric vehicles over internal combustion engine automobiles. Fewer internal combustion vehicles soften the demand for renewable fuels as a result, the filers argue. According to the EPA, electric vehicles made up 7.5pc of light and medium duty vehicle sales in 2022, but by 2032, 68pc of corresponding sales must be electric vehicles to comply with the regulation. The brief goes on to scrutinize the EPA's calculations used to craft policy that support electric vehicle adoption, suggesting the finalized standards fail to account for emissions created in the production of electric vehicles as well as the ability of renewable fuels to lower emissions as a substitute good. The Renewable Fuels Association, one of the petitioners named in the brief, voiced its concerns that the EPA ignores the benefits of high octane ethanol and more fuel efficient internal combustion engines' ability to lower emissions at a lower cost to domestic consumers. It also said the tailpipe emissions standards would conflict with Congress' Renewable Fuel Standard (RFA), which mandates set volumes of biofuel in the nation's road fuel supply. "While we certainly share the Biden administration's vision for reducing carbon emissions from transportation, EPA's tailpipe rule is clearly the wrong way to pursue that goal and the agency obviously overstepped its authority," RFA chief executive Geoff Cooper said. The Illinois Corn Growers Association echoed the sentiments from the perspective of the agricultural sector, as president Dave Rylander voiced the industry group's goals of building a robust farm economy while opposing the EPA's regulations as they "exceed their authority as a government agency and jeopardize farm family profitability." The group claims that President Joe Biden's administration's target for electric vehicle growth will have adverse effects on corn demand by way of decreases in biofuel production. The EPA is expected to respond by 26 November. Members of the US House of Representatives have drafted a joint resolution attempting to block the standards from going into effect. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more