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Southeast Asian steel demand to rise in 2024: Seaisi

  • Market: Metals
  • 21/05/24

The Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (Seaisi) estimates that southeast Asian countries' steel demand will grow by 3.7pc from 2023 to 76.5mn t in 2024.

But the growth rate fell below previous expectations considering high global inflation risks, volatile prices and a demand slowdown in China and many other regions, the institute said at the 2024 Seaisi conference in Vietnam held over 13-16 May.

Steel demand in the six major countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean-6) fell by 1.9pc from 2022 to 73.5mn t in 2023, Seaisi said. Asean-6's steel production also dropped by 2.1pc on the year to 49.4mn t in 2023, in line with contracting demand. Asean-6's net imports slid by 1.3pc on the year to 24.3mn t in 2023.

Lower external demand, high inflation and interest rates as well as tightening global financial markets were the main reasons for steel industrial setbacks last year. It led to a slowdown in construction sectors and steel industrial destocking activities in the region. Steel demand in Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam fell by 14pc, 7.5pc and 4.8pc respectively in 2023, weighing on regional industrial performance although demand rose by 18pc in Singapore and 6.3pc in Indonesia, Seaisi said. Thailand's steel demand edged down by 0.1pc in 2023.

Asean regional steel demand was expected to increase in 2024 because Asean-6 governments were optimistic about achieving their economic growth targets, given strong private consumption in most countries, the rolling out of infrastructure and construction projects, a recovery in tourism and electronics, and as inflation rates move towards targeted ranges. But the region will continue to experience challenges from supply chain uncertainties on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions and wars, weakening Asean currencies except for the Singapore dollar, economic slowdowns outside of Asean, volatile commodity prices, and extreme weather, Seaisi said.

Seaisi did not provide a forecast for regional steel production in 2024, but it sees steel capacity expansions in the region leading to overcapacity issues. It expects Asean-6 crude steel capacity to rise from 78mn t/yr in 2022 to 94mn t/yr in 2024.

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17/07/25

Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

Sydney, 17 July (Argus) — US producer Alcoa's aluminium output increased on the year in April-June despite the months-long closure of its San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain. But its bauxite and alumina output fell in the quarter. Aluminium Alcoa smelted 572,000t of aluminium in April-June, up by 5.3pc on the year, the company said in a quarterly report on 17 July. It has maintained its 2025 aluminium production guidance at 2.3mn-2.5mn t, which it set in January. The increase came from the continued ramp-up of its 447,000 t/yr Alumar smelter in Brazil. It operates the smelter with Australian producer South32 . The two companies reopened the aluminium smelter in 2024 after a nine-year production halt. Alcoa's Alumar ramp-up offset production declines from the shutdown of its San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain. The company initially paused production at the 228,000 t/yr plant in December 2021. It began a phased restart in early 2024 , but paused it in late-April 2025 because of a major power outage. Alcoa will fully restart the plant by mid-2026 with the support of energy solutions provider Ignis Equity Holdings. Alcoa shipped 581,000t of produced aluminium in April-June, as well as 53,000t of third-party aluminium, pushing down its total shipments by 6.5pc on the year ( see table ). The company also reduced its 2025 aluminium shipment guidance to 2.5mn-2.6mn t from its April forecast of 2.6mn-2.8mn t because of the San Ciprián shutdown. Alcoa, like many other global aluminium producers, faced tariff pressures in April-June. The company redirected some Canadian-produced aluminium away from the US over the quarter, it told investors. Alcoa expects tariffs to cost $90mn in July-September. US tariffs similarly cost UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto in April-June . It paid $712/t of aluminium shipped to the US over the quarter, the company told investors on 16 July. Bauxite and alumina Alcoa produced 9.3mn t of bauxite and 2.4mn t of alumina in April-June, down by 2.1pc and by 7.4pc on the year respectively. It shut its 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery in late 2024, reducing its production capacity. The company has maintained its 2025 calendar year alumina production guidance at 9.5mn-9.7mn t, unchanged from April. It also cut its produced alumina shipments in the quarter to 2.4mn t, down from 2.6mn t a year earlier, but this was supplemented by third-party shipments. The company maintained its 2025 alumina shipment guidance at 13.1mn-13.3mn t. Alcoa will ship more alumina than it produces in 2025 because it plans to use third-party sales as a substitute for Kwinana production to meet existing shipment obligations. By Avinash Govind Alcoa quarterly report mn t Apr-Jun '25 Apr-Jun '24 y-o-y Change (%) Jan-Jun '25 Jan-Jun '24 YTD Change (%) Production Bauxite 9.3 9.5 -2.1 18.8 19.6 -4.1 Alumina 2.4 2.5 -7.4 4.7 5.2 -9.7 Aluminium 0.6 0.5 5.3 1.1 1.1 4.7 Shipments Alumina (produced) 2.4 2.6 -8.1 4.7 5.2 -9.9 Alumina shipments (other) 3.3 3.3 -0.2 6.5 6.6 -2.3 Aluminium (produced) 0.6 0.6 -2.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 Aluminium (other) 0.05 0.1 -36.6 0.1 0.2 -43.4 — Alcoa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF held its 2025 GDP growth forecast steady at 0.1pc in its July survey but warned the outlook could deteriorate if the US raises tariffs to 30pc. The survey of 43 analysts maintained projections for year-end inflation at 4pc and for the central bank's benchmark interest rate to fall from 8pc to 7.5pc by the end of 2025. The sharpest variation came in formal employment, after Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported a net loss of 139,444 formal jobs in the second quarter. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 160,000 from 190,000 in June — the seventh and largest downgrade this year. Job losses increased in April, May and June, "a situation not seen since the pandemic in 2020," IMEF said. "If this trend is not reversed, the net number of formal jobs could fall to zero by year-end." "It is still too early to call it a recession, but the rise in job losses is worrying," said Victor Herrera, head of economic studies at IMEF. "The next risk we face is in auto plants. Some halted production after the 25pc US tariff was imposed in April. They did not lay off workers right away — they sent them home with half pay. But if this is not resolved in the next 60-90 days, layoffs will follow." The July survey was conducted before US president Donald Trump said on 12 July he would raise tariffs on Mexican goods from 25pc to 30pc starting 1 August. "What we have seen in the past is that when the deadline comes, the tariffs are postponed or canceled," Herrera said. "Hopefully, that happens again. If not, you can expect GDP forecasts to shift into contraction territory." While the full impact would vary by sector, Herrera said the effective average tariff rate would rise from 4pc to 15pc, with most exports either exempt or subject to reduced rates under regional content rules. But 8–10pc of auto exports would face the full 30pc duty. IMEF expects the peso to end 2025 at Ps20.1/$1, stronger than the Ps20.45/$1 estimate in June. But the group warned that rising Japanese rates — which influence currency carry trades — and falling Mexican rates could put renewed pressure on the peso once the dollar rebounds. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast dropped to 1.3pc from 1.5pc, while the peso is seen ending that year at Ps20.75/$1, slightly stronger than the previous Ps20.90/$1 forecast. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK HDG buyers duplicate import orders amid quota issues

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

UK HDG buyers duplicate import orders amid quota issues

London, 16 July (Argus) — UK hot-dip galvanised importers are increasing imported order volumes in some instances because of the government's imposition of a 15pc cap on the other countries' quota. The UK business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, imposed the cap on 24 June, days before the quota reset on 1 July, stranding supply from South Korea and Vietnam . HMRC has now suspended clearances into the quotas for Vietnam and South Korea — the main users of the other countries' quota — until 1 August, meaning steel cannot be accessed even where buyers are willing to pay a duty. This is contributing to storage issues at major ports, particularly Liverpool. One service centre said major construction companies are worried about delays to some projects because of availability issues on particular gauges and coatings. Because of the potential disruption, some buyers have booked material elsewhere, in particular from Turkish rerollers, to avoid supply issues. The government's action, designed to protect the domestic producer Tata Steel, has "increased the amount of imports, as we are having to go elsewhere aside from South Korea and Vietnam", one service centre said. Tata does not produce all the necessary sizes and specifications for domestic buyers, sources suggest. There is typically abundant EU quota for HDG, but European mills, like Tata, struggle to compete with Asian sellers because of their higher energy costs. Simone Jordan, the director of the International Steel Trade Association (ISTA), called on the secretary of state to "address this catastrophic situation and reconsider his determination". Import volumes not rising There has been no real increase in third-country hot-dip galvanised coil imports into the UK since the US imposition of Section 232 in 2018. The country imported 468,500t of HDG last year, compared with just over 485,000t in 2018; there was a large jump in 2021, to over 732,000t, as buyers scrambled to source material following the Covid-19 pandemic, when demand increased much more sharply than European supply. The most notable change in imports is the increased share of South Korea, which has risen from around 15pc of non-EU imports in 2018 to over 43pc today. Much of that growth started last year, when a leading producer in the country started to divert automotive material into the general industrial market in the UK. Vietnamese volumes have also ratcheted up in recent years, partly because it was exempt from the safeguard on HDG for a period, before it came into scope. Vietnam is the largest importer of Chinese hot-rolled coil, whose low-priced exports have reshaped global trade flows in the last year. Turkey, which is now exempt from the UK safeguard on HDG, is also a large buyer of Chinese HRC; indeed, the country's rerollers can avoid dumping duties on Chinese material, provided it is re-exported. Vietnam and South Korea shipped over 281,000t of HDG to the UK last year, accounting for over 60pc of third country volumes, and account for almost three-quarters of third country imports over January-May this year. India has been the cheapest supplier of HDG into the UK on average this year, according to customs data. The average landed Indian price has been £587/t cfr, followed by Taiwan at £607/t and Vietnam at £618/t. Vietnam is the cheapest import source on average, at £472/t, closely followed by India at £475/t. Tata Steel is the largest buyer of Indian coil in the UK at present. By Colin Richardson UK HDG imports Tonnes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Rio Tinto’s copper output rises 15pc on year in Apr-Jun

16/07/25
News
16/07/25

Rio Tinto’s copper output rises 15pc on year in Apr-Jun

Sydney, 16 July (Argus) — Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto produced 229,000t of copper — including copper in concentrate and refined metal — in April-June 2025, up 15pc on the year, driven by record high output from its Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia. The company maintained its 2025 copper production guidance range at 780,000-850,000t, but now expects output to sit in the upper end of the band, it said in a quarterly report on 16 July. Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgol mine hit a record high production of 87,000t of copper in concentrate at in April-June, up 65pc on the year (see table). The company plans to ramp up production at the mine over the next few years and reach an average of 500,000 t/yr of copper by 2028-2036. Rio Tinto's copper concentrate production at its Escondida mine in Chile, which is operated by Australian producer BHP, reached 87,000t on an equity basis in April-June, up 4pc on the year because of increased mining. The increase came despite a drop in ore grades at the open-pit copper mine to 0.95pc Cu from 0.99pc Cu a year ago. Rio Tinto's copper refining operations slowed at the Escondida mine and the Kennecott mine in the US. Geotechnical challenges at the integrated copper mining operation in Kennetcott, located just outside Salt Lake City in Utah, decreased the volume of concentrates available for refining. This pushed down the site's refining output by 16pc on the year. Rio Tinto is expanding the Kennetcott mine capacity by 250,000 t/yr by building an underground infrastructure. The expansion is expected to be completed by end of 2025. By Avinash Govind Rio Tinto's Apr-Jun copper output 000' t April-June '25 April-June '24 y-o-y Change (%) April-June '25 April-June '24 y-o-y Change (%) Kennecott (refined copper, 100pc basis) 40 48 -16 82 95 -14 Escondida (copper concentrate, equity basis) 87 84 4 176 155 13 Escondida (refined copper, equity basis) 15 15 -4 28 30 -6 Oyu Tolgoi (copper concentrate, 100pc basis) 87 53 65 152 99 54 Total 229 199 15 438 379 16 Rio Tinto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil fills coated steel quotas quickly

15/07/25
News
15/07/25

Brazil fills coated steel quotas quickly

Sao Paulo, 15 July (Argus) — Importers filled 60pc of Brazil's coated steel import quotas in the first 15 days following the imposition of duties in late June, according to foreign trade secretariat data. Brazil's quota system includes 17 steel products under a 25pc tariff regime, three of which are flat coated steel. The quotas came into effect on 24 June and will remain valid through October, when volumes will reset and new import licenses will be issued. Nearly 300,000 metric tonnes (t) of coated steel can enter Brazil at a 9-10pc duty rate, but volumes above that are subject to the higher 25pc tariffs. Galvalume (GL), a zinc-aluminum coated product, accounts for 147,038t of the quota. This item had 64pc of its four-month allocation already used by 9 July, while hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) reached 56pc of its 144,286t limit. The fast quota consumption rate points to robust demand, with buyers moving quickly to front-load shipments before the limits are reached. Demand for hot-rolled coils 3mm or thinner was also strong, with buyers filling 65pc of the 9,520t product's quota in two weeks. The quota system allocates 80pc of the total volume to the largest importers, a rule that applies to all 17 steel products subject to the 25pc tariffs. The other 20pc of the limit is reserved for smaller market participants. Smaller importers consumed 100pc of their share for at least two steel products. This means smaller players must pay a 25pc tariff on further shipments of those products until the quota resets in October. The Brazilian government has extended the tariffs through May 2026, when it will evaluate the future of the policy. The safeguard measure was first imposed in June 2024, but had limited effect in curbing rising import volumes. Imports reached a record 5.9mn t in 2024 , according to industry group Instituto Aco. Beyond the quota system, the government is also conducting anti-dumping investigations into imports of hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated steel. The probes are expected to take at least six more months to conclude. No provisional duties have been imposed yet . By Isabel Filgueiras Brazil steel import quotas t Product Quota volume June-October 25 Consumed by 9 Jul % of consumption Hot-rolled HRC, ≥600mm wide, 4.75–10mm thick 1,285 285 22.2 HRC, ≥600mm wide, 3-4.75mm thick 3,111 1,245 40.0 HRC, ≥600mm wide, ≤3mm thick, ≥275 MPa 9,520 6,232 65.5 HRC, ≥600mm wide, ≤3mm thick 23,490 1,972 8.4 HRC, ≥600mm wide 29,394 578 2.0 Flat-rolled, ≥600mm wide 468 51 10.9 Cold rolled CRC, ≥600mm wide, 1-3mm thick 47,950 12,302 25.7 CRC, ≥600mm wide, 0.5-1mm thick 108,765 14,114 13.0 CRC, ≥600mm wide 9,273 4,763 51.4 Galvanized HDG, ≥600mm wide, <4.75mm 144,286 81,394 56.4 GL, ≥600mm wide 147,038 94,821 64.5 HDG, ≥600mm wide 1,915 764 39.9 Wire rod Wire rod, circular section <14mm dia 32,535 13,572 41.7 Tubes Seamless tubes ( oil, gas industry) 6,295 1,627 25.8 Submerged arc welding steel pipes, >406.4mm OD 490 24 4.9 Welded circular steel pipes, >406.4mm OD 420 43 10.2 Welded circular (oil, gas industry) 1,679 295 17.6 -Brazil's foreign trade secretariat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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