Anticipated higher domestic use of Canadian canola in the 2024-25 marketing year could come at the expense of exported volumes, according to Canadian agriculture and agri-food ministry AAFC's latest supply and demand outlook.
AAFC revised its forecast for total domestic canola use 500,000t higher in 2024-25, to 11.35mn t. But domestic crush could rise above this level if plants under construction become operational, the ministry said.
Meanwhile, AAFC lowered its outlook for canola exports in 2024-25, to 6.9mn t, down by 800,000t from April's estimate. And the forecast could be pressured further if firmer domestic demand is realised. This compares with 2023-24 exports forecast at 6mn t.
Carry-out stocks for both the current and upcoming marketing years are seen higher on the month, despite no changes to forecast production, as the 2023-24 canola exports projection was cut by 1mn t, more than offsetting a slight increase in domestic demand.
Current-year international demand for Canadian canola has been particularly hit by firm supplies of competing soybean and palm oils, AAFC said.
Other crops
AAFC's wheat balance sheet saw some minor changes in May. The forecast for 2024-25 exports of wheat excluding durum were revised 150,000t higher on the month, to 20.25mn t. And ending stocks were revised lower for both current and upcoming marketing years, by 600,000t and 650,000t, respectively.
The production outlook for both years remained unchanged, at 27.9mn t for 2023-24, and 28.94mn t for 2024-25. Durum output forecast also remained unchanged, at 4.05mn t and 5.66mn t, respectively.
Canada's dry peas balance sheet remained largely stable. Production is still expected to increase year on year, on a return to average yields and increased planted area on demand from India. But exports are expected to remain flat on the year in 2024-25, at 2.5mn t. India's return to the market could be partially offset by lower exports to China, Bangladesh and the US, AAFC said.
