US ethane supply gains seen trailing demand growth

Market: LPG, Petrochemicals
23/05/24

Export and domestic demand growth for US ethane is expected to outpace US supply growth by as much as 72,000 b/d by 2026, according to a recent forecast from consultancy East Daley Analytics.

A surplus of US ethane production, bolstered by gains in natural gas drilling and production to meet growing demand for electricity generation and LNG exports, has led to increasing investments in additional ethane export terminal capacity to provide other outlets for the petrochemical feedstock.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US ethane production from natural gas processing rose to a record 2.78mn b/d in October of 2023 and fell to 2.69mn b/d in February, the latest data the agency has available. Those volumes don't take into account ethane that is rejected into the gas stream at processing plants during periods of restrained capacity or when natural gas prices spike on weather-related outages, incentivizing lower ethane recovery.

Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC ethane's premium relative to its natural gas fuel value at Waha reached a peak of 50.31¢/USG on 6 May, a 16-month high, and has averaged 26.08¢/USG in May so far, according to Argus data. As ethane margins versus natural gas rise, ethane extraction at natural gas processing plants becomes even more profitable, pushing ethane recovery rates higher.

Yet East Daley's forecasts suggest projects to absorb this additional feedstock may quickly outpace production.

The consultancy projects US ethane production will rise by 283,000 b/d by 2026, driven mostly by gains in natural gas production in the Permian and Marcellus basins.

Increased gas takeaway capacity from the completion of maintenance on Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway pipeline (PHP), the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline, and the Transwestern pipeline at the end of this month, will allow for higher levels of ethane rejection, according to Rob Wilson, East Daley's vice president of analytics, limiting potential gains in ethane production from the additional gas.

Further gas capacity restrictions in the Permian are expected to be mitigated when the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn Express pipeline — which runs from the Waha, Texas, gas hub to Katy, Texas, on the Gulf coast — comes online in the third quarter of this year.

Domestic demand for ethane is projected to rise by 129,000 b/d by 2026 with the addition of Chevron Phillips Chemical's joint venture with QatarEnergy to construct a 2mn t/yr ethane cracker on the Texas Gulf coast that is scheduled to come online in 2026. That joint venture will consume 118,000 b/d of ethane when at full capacity, but will operate at 50pc of capacity when first on line in 2026, according to East Daley.

Increased US ethane cracking will come on top of a 231,000 b/d increase in ethane exports by 2026, driven by demand from Chinese crackers and burgeoning demand from Indian crackers, according to the consultancy. Ethane export expansions at Energy Transfer's Marcus Hook terminal in Pennsylvania and Enterprise Products Partners' new flexible LPG and ethane terminal at Beaumont, Texas, are expected to be complete by 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Combined, these projects add another 360,000 b/d of ethane demand by 2026, outstripping expected supply growth by an estimated 72,000 b/d, according to East Daley's forecast.

By Abby Downing-Beaver

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

30/04/25

Repsol sees Spanish refineries back to normal in a week

Madrid, 30 April (Argus) — Repsol said it expects its five Spanish refineries to return to normal operations within a week following Monday's nationwide power outage. The company confirmed that power was restored to all its refineries on Monday evening, allowing the restart process to begin. It will take three days to restart the crude distillation units and 5-7 days to restart the secondary conversion units, with hydrocrackers taking the longest, according to chief executive Josu Jon Imaz. A momentary and as-yet unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal, disrupting petrochemical plants and airports, as well as refineries. Imaz noted that Repsol was fortunate that its refineries avoided damage from petroleum coke formation and other solidification processes during the shutdown. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Petronor refinery in Bilbao was the first to restart, thanks to electricity imports from France, he said. State-controlled petroleum reserves corporation Cores has temporarily reduced Spain's obligation to hold 92 days of oil product consumption as strategic reserves by four days, mitigating potential supply issues from the outage. Imaz declined to speculate on the cause of the power outage. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

Kingston, 29 April (Argus) — Major LNG exporter Trinidad and Tobago's new government wants to open discussions with the administration of US president Donald Trump on access to natural gas fields on the border with Venezuela. United National Congress (UNC) party leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar will be the new prime minister of the Caribbean state of 1.5mn people after the party won Monday's general election, ending 10 years of administration by the People's National Congress (PNC) party of Stuart Young. The UNC won 26 seats in the 41-member assembly. "We will work with the Trump administration to see how the discussions with the Venezuelan government on the cross-border gas fields can be reopened," the UNC's energy spokesman David Lee said. Lee is expected to be appointed the energy minister. "We do not have any closed doors on this matter," Lee said. "We will directly engage the US so it will be confident in working with us on resolving our cross-border issues." Trinidad and Tobago's gas-short economy was set back earlier this month by the Trump government's revocation of licenses granted by the administration of former US president Joe Biden to Trinidad. The waivers exempted certain work to develop two gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela from US sanctions. Access to the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields is "vital" to reversing Trinidad's fall in gas production, Young said. Trinidad has been struggling to recover natural gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a peak of 4.3 Bcf/d in 2010. Gas output in 2024 was 2.53 Bcf/d, and the fall in output suppressed LNG, petrochemical and fertilizer production. Trinidad's 2024 LNG production of 16.7mn m³ was down by 4.6pc on 2023, according to the latest energy ministry data. The 11.8mn t/yr Atlantic liquefaction plant in southwestern Trinidad, which is majority owned by Shell and BP, is Trinidad's sole LNG producer. Crude production has also declined, moving from a peak of 144,400 b/d in 2005 to 50,854 b/d in 2024, according to the energy ministry. The decline in crude feedstock contributed to the 2018 shutdown of the state-owned 160,000 b/d Guaracara refinery. Young's administration failed at several attempts to engage foreign investors to reopen the plant. The government last month selected Nigerian privately owned oil and gas company Oando to lease and operate the refinery. But the incoming UNC administration will terminate negotiations with Oando to reopen the refinery and will seek new investors for the plant, the party said. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Canada’s Liberals win minority government

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

Canada’s Liberals win minority government

Calgary, 29 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party rode a wave of anti-US sentiment to victory in Monday's election, but fell just short of an elusive majority. The Liberals are on track to take 168 of the 343 seats in Parliament, according to Elections Canada, which said counting has carried over to today on account of a large voter turnout. If current levels hold, this will mark a six seat improvement for the Liberals over the 2021 election, but they will still require the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The Conservatives will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats. Despite the loss, the Conservatives made the largest gain of any party compared to the 2021 election, when they won 119 seats. Who will lead the Conservatives in Parliament is unclear, however, with current leader Pierre Poilievre losing his Ottawa seat to a Liberal candidate and being on the outside looking in for the first time in 20 years. Carney won his neighbouring seat handily, with the results indicative of which leader Canadians preferred to take on US president Donald Trump. The election was largely centered around trade and the economy which was brought to the forefront by Trump's tariffs and "51st state" rhetoric, turning the election into a two-horse race between the parties with the most realistic chances of forming a government. "President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen," said Carney in his victory speech. "We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons." Carney plans to sit with Trump to discuss the trade relationship between the two countries, but says Canada has "many, many other options" than the US to build prosperity. The Liberals garnered about 43.5pc of the popular vote while the Conservatives hit 41.4pc, according to preliminary results, each representing the highest for their respective parties since the 1980s. Liberal and Conservative gains came at the expense of the smaller New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloq Quebecois who may still hold influence in government despite suffering steep losses. The NDP are likely to end with seven seats, down from 25 in the 2021 election and below the 12 required for official party status in Parliament. The Bloq Quebecois, a regional party standing for sovereignty in Quebec, fell to 23 seats from 32 across the same time frame. The Liberals were propped up by the NDP since 2022 and may turn to the left-leaning party yet again to push legislation through. The NDP, nearly being wiped out, could hold the balance of power yet again but they will need to regroup after its leader also lost his seat. Carney admits Canada must build more infrastructure to both kickstart a lagging economy but also diversify its trade partners further beyond the US. The Conservatives agree more must be done and it is likely common ground could be found between the two parties to progress the export of energy, critical minerals and more. "We are going to build," said Carney. "Build, baby, build." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

Madrid, 29 April (Argus) — Spanish oil companies Repsol and Moeve are restarting refineries and petrochemical plants after they were halted by a massive power cut across Spain and Portugal yesterday, 28 April. Power has returned to Repsol's five Spanish refineries, which have a combined 890,000 b/d of capacity, and its two petrochemicals plants in Tarragona and Puertollano, as well as Moeve's 464,000 b/d of refining capacity and two petrochemicals plants in southern Spain. Facilities are "restarting progressively" after power was restored from late on 28 April, according to the companies. They declined to say when they expect production to return to levels prior to the outages. A momentary and as-yet-unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid of over 10GW at around 12.30 CET (10:30 GMT) caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal yesterday, shutting down industrial complexes . The outage followed a localised and unexplained loss of power in Cartagena southern Spain on 22 April which shut down Repsol's 220,000 refinery for several days, the company confirmed. Portugal's Galp has not yet responded to requests for confirmation that its 226,000 b/d Sines refinery in southern Portugal halted yesterday, although one worker at the facility confirmed to Argus that the refinery is restarting now after a "total shutdown" following the power cut. BP said operations at its 108,000 b/d Castellon refinery in eastern Spain "have not been affected by the power outage" but the facility did "activate an emergency response plan" and is working "closely with local authorities to manage the situation." Spain's dominant oil product pipeline and storage operator Exolum, whose facilities connect refineries and ports, and deliver to service stations, said its infrastructure is working "normally" today after yesterday's disruption, adding that it managed to supply essential services and airports with fuel throughout the blackout. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which has limited hydrocracking capacity and no major petrochemicals units, took just two days to return to prior production levels after a power outage caused a total shutdown in 2016. Any recovery to normal functioning of a plant could take longer depending on the configuration of a particular refinery, whether any damage to units occurred and whether any petrochemical units were affected. Airport operations Aena — the firm that operates 48 Spanish airports — said that all airports in its network had fully resumed operations as of Tuesday morning. Airlines including Iberia, AirEuropa and Easyjet expect all flights to operate as scheduled today. The power outage halted operations at airports in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and southern France. Morocco's National Airports Office (Onda) announced that check-in and boarding procedures have been fully restored at all airports in the country. Around 500 flights were cancelled in Spain and Portugal, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, after deducting double-counted flights between the two countries. Lisbon airport was the worst hit, with 45pc of departures cancelled, as well as about 30pc of departures at Seville airport. Around 50 flights each were grounded at Madrid and Barcelona airports — Spain's busiest. By Jonathan Gleave and Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

UK's Grangemouth refinery stops processing crude

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

UK's Grangemouth refinery stops processing crude

London, 29 April (Argus) — The Petroineos joint venture's 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland has stopped processing crude and the company will now import transport fuels to meet demand, it said today. The move ends more than 70 years of refining at Grangemouth, and around 400 workers will lose their jobs. The closure removes 13pc of the UK's refining capacity, which will probably increase the country's reliance on imported refined products. Petroineos — a joint venture between PetroChina and UK-based Ineos — said in November 2023 it would close the refinery in spring this year, later deciding to repurpose the site to an import and distribution terminal. It said today it has invested £50mn ($67mn) in this. Petroineos rejected a call from UK labour union Unite for the refinery to be converted into a a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. London has said it would provide £200mn for investment in clean energy at the Grangemouth site, which it hoped would unlock private sector funds. Unite today said "for all the talk, nothing has been done", and said the closure was because the UK and Scottish governments "have effectively allowed China to shutdown Scotland's capacity to refine fuel". Slow death UK refinery output dropped to a 17-month low in March, reflecting Grangemouth's gradual drop in run rates ahead of processing its final barrel. The effect on national fuel balances has already been felt, with UK gasoil imports at an almost six-year high of 1.484mn t in April, and net gasoline exports the lowest on record at 65,000t, according to the country's latest submission to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi). The Grangemouth closure is one of three major refinery shutdowns planned this year in Europe. In Germany, Shell began to close its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in March , and BP plans to remove a third of the crude distillation capacity at its 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen site this year . This removal of 400,000 b/d of capacity represents around 3pc of Europe's total. This year's plant closures are widely expected to exacerbate a supply squeeze of middle distillates on the continent, while failing to address a growing gasoline supply overhang exacerbated by the ramp-up of production from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Further unplanned European refinery closures are anticipated by market participants as product margins slide from post-pandemic highs and elevated overheads squeeze operating profits. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more