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Houthi missiles hit bulk carrier in Red Sea: US Centcom

  • Market: Agriculture, Freight
  • 29/05/24

Yemen-based Houthi militants launched five anti-ship ballistic missiles in the Red Sea on 28 May, with three striking the Greek-owned and operated bulk carrier Laax, said US Central Command (Centcom).

But the Marshall Islands-flagged Laax is continuing its voyage with no injuries reported. The vessel had unloaded about 60,000t of soybean meal at the Turkish port of Ceyhan on 21 May and is now ballasting to Imam Khomeini port in Iran, according to data from global trade and analytics platform Kpler.

Centcom forces have also destroyed more than 10 uncrewed aerial systems over the Red Sea in the past week, after determining that they presented "an imminent threat to merchant vessels in the region". The systems were launched from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen. The Houthis have also launched five other anti-ship ballistic missiles since 18 May when a Houthi missile hit an oil tanker.

Oil prices are rising as the conflict in the Middle East widens. An Egyptian soldier was killed in a clash with Israeli forces at the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt earlier this week. The Egyptian Armed Forces are investigating the incident, spokesperson Ghareeb Abdel Hafez said on 27 May. "A dialogue is taking place with the Egyptian side," the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.

The IDF said on 7 May that it is conducting "targeted strikes against Hamas terror targets in eastern Rafah in southern Gaza". Israel's war cabinet "unanimously decided" that Israel would continue its operation in Rafah to apply military pressure on Gaza-based Hamas to advance the release of Israeli hostages, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

The Ice front-month July Brent contract was at $84.40/bl at 03:40am GMT, up by 0.2pc from the previous settlement and by about 1.6pc from 27 May. The front-month July WTI crude contract was at $80.11/bl, up by around 0.4pc from the previous settlement and by 3pc from 27 May.


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16/07/25

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits

New York, 16 July (Argus) — A group of small oil refiners asked US officials at a recent meeting to not just grant exemptions from years-old biofuel blend mandates but to also provide lucrative program credits they can sell to other companies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed record-high biofuel blend mandates for the next two years, but farm groups fear that a backlog of exemption requests threaten those targets. There are more than 180 unresolved exemption requests stretching over 10 years after courts struck down various denials during former-president Joe Biden's term. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refiners and importers must annually blend biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. But refiners that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude and can prove "disproportionate economic hardship" are able to request full exemptions which can mean tens of millions of dollars in reduced compliance costs. In a 20 May meeting with EPA officials, a coalition of small refiners made the case that President Donald Trump's administration should not just grant broad relief from 2019-2022 mandates but also issue "replacement RINs" for any refiners that already complied. EPA should issue these RINs "with adequate lead time" before compliance deadlines and ensure they have "adequate shelf life", according to a proposal shared with EPA by a coalition lawyer and obtained by Argus through a Freedom of Information Act request. The agency should even consider giving companies more credits than they submitted if RINs are cheaper now, the group argued. RINs from those years are otherwise expired and would be useless if returned as is. "Hardship relief is more critical now than ever", the group of 14 companies argues, given rising biofuel quotas. The issue is politically tricky for EPA, since widespread waivers threaten biofuel and crop demand, and has been the subject of numerous court fights over the years. The first Trump administration handed out exemptions generously , but current officials have not yet staked out a clear position. EPA told Argus it is taking steps "to reduce the backlog as soon as possible". Living RIN the past EPA could potentially return credits on a staggered timeline or impose conditions on their use to avert market turmoil, according to lawyers and lobbyists experienced in waiver issues. The proposal alludes to this, noting however that "any conditions on RIN return that are intended to address potential market reactions must strike the appropriate balance to ensure flexibility to small refineries". Biofuel groups have lobbied against retroactive waivers but said that EPA could minimize the damage by making other oil companies blend more biofuels. The agency should ensure that any exemptions "will be made up in the market", said Emily Skor, president of ethanol lobby Growth Energy, at a hearing last week. But the refiners' proposal argues that EPA is not required to do so if it grants exemptions retroactively. The agency has estimated future exemptions when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend — frustrating large producers that then shoulder more of the burden of meeting high-level targets — but doing the same with past-year waivers is more legally risky. The small refiners float a less aggressive approach for other compliance years. The proposal notably makes no reference to petitions for relief from 2016-2018 quotas. EPA under Biden rejected 31 petitions for those years but did not require companies to surrender additional RINs, potentially making any push for extra relief a tougher sell despite courts' skepticism of the underlying denials. And for 2023 and beyond, the refiners say that EPA should rely on "merit-driven scoring". EPA already consults with the Department of Energy, which scores hardship for individual applicants, though the importance of this feedback has varied over the program's history. The coalition also wants EPA to rescind three 2023 compliance year denials issued during the final days of Biden's term, which affected two Calumet refineries and one CVR Energy refinery. RINto the future The coalition's proposal is notable since small refiners — apart from a handful recently calling for a "seat at the table" — have largely not publicized their asks of the Trump administration, leading traders to speculate wildly on policy shifts. RIN prices have been volatile as a result. The coalition includes 14 companies that submitted 41 petitions that courts have told EPA to reconsider as well as 37 requests for more recent years, the proposal says. They are represented by independent attorney Claudia O'Brien, who did not respond to a request for comment. The documents obtained by Argus do not list all companies involved in the effort, but lawyers for Calumet, Par Pacific and Placid Refining were scheduled to attend the May meeting in person with top EPA appointees Aaron Szabo and Alexander Dominguez, while others attended virtually. O'Brien said in a separate email that Hunt Refining, REH Company, and Ergon were part of the coalition. The policy requests represent the position of one group and not necessarily all 34 refineries EPA estimates are eligible for future waivers. It is not clear how officials responded at the meeting or what options they are weighing now. EPA wants to finalize new blend mandates before November and has said it plans to communicate its approach to exemptions beforehand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil focuses on reversing US tariffs: VP


15/07/25
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15/07/25

Brazil focuses on reversing US tariffs: VP

Sao Paulo, 15 July (Argus) — Brazil is focused on reversing the tariff hike imposed by US president Donald Trump and will only ask for a postponement if necessary, Brazilian vice-president Geraldo Alckmin said on Tuesday after meeting with agribusiness representatives. Trump last week threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil as of 1 August , citing a criminal trial against former president Jair Bolsonaro for attempting to overthrow the country's 2022 election results. At a press conference after the meeting today representatives from different agribusiness sectors were in agreement that the dialogue with the US government needs to continue. Agriculture ministry Carlos Favaro said that "dialogue [between the two countries] is open on the Brazilian side, but with respect for sovereignty and with great pride". Beef, orange juice and coffee are among agricultural products Brazil exports the most to the US, according to Brazil's ministry of development, industry, commerce and services. Brazil's meatpacking plants are stopping production because of the likely effects that the 50pc tariffs could have on the market, according to the president of Brazil's association of meat exporting industries Abiec, Roberto Perosa . The US is the second largest importer of Brazil's beef, only behind China. The US already imposes tariffs of around 36pc on Brazil's beef sector, according to Perosa, and an additional 50pc tariff "would practically make exports to the US unfeasible." Citrus juice exporters are also concerned about the possible new tariffs, especially considering that the 2025-26 orange season started in June and goes through December-January. Brazil accounts for 70pc of the orange juice the US imports, according to Brazil's national association of citrus juice exporters CitrusBR. The group's president, Ibiapaba Netto, said that "there is still time for negotiation" until 1 August and that "it is necessary to maintain pragmatism". Brazil published today a decree regulating the economic reciprocity law, which establishes criteria for suspending trade concessions, investments and obligations related to intellectual property rights in response to unilateral measures adopted by countries or economic blocs that may negatively impact Brazil's international competitiveness. By Renata Gabrielli and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil attorney general asks court to convict Bolsonaro


15/07/25
News
15/07/25

Brazil attorney general asks court to convict Bolsonaro

Sao Paulo, 15 July (Argus) — Brazilian prosecutors said the country's supreme court (STF) should find former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants guilty of an attempted coup. In a 517-page briefing that is part of attorney general Paulo Gonet's closing arguments at trial, prosecutors argue that Bolsonaro and the other defendants should be convicted of the crimes of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, damage qualified by violence and serious threat, and damage to government assets. Bolsonaro was the "main orchestrator and biggest beneficiary" of a plot to make sure that he stayed in power despite losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Gonet said during the trial. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents . Also as part of the plot, Bolsonaro used the power of the state and operated in a "persistent scheme" to attack public institutions and the succession process after the presidential election results, Gonet said. The seven other defendants include Bolsonaro's running mate Walter Braga Netto; former minister Augusto Heleno, who is also an army general; Bolsonaro's former justice minister Anderson Torres; former defense minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira; and Bolsonaro's top aide Mauro Cid. If convicted, Cid is expected to have his sentence suspended due to a plea bargain agreement signed with the federal police during investigations. Cid will now have 15 days to present his final defense. The other defendants will then have an additional 15 days to do the same. A date for the justices to begin deliberations will be set after STF receives all statements. That is expected for September this year, according to the government. If convicted, the defendants, including Bolsonaro, can face up to 43 years in prison. Bolsonaro, Trump push back Bolsonaro — who is barred from running for any public office until 2030 — used social media to call the trial a "shameful farce". Bolsonaro's trial gained a new spotlight after US president Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing an alleged "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro. Lula said Brazil will reciprocate the US tariffs. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," he said on social media last week. He also added that the country "will not accept any form of tutelage." Lula signed the reciprocity law on Monday, according to the government. It authorizes Brazil to suspend trade, investment and obligation concessions to countries that impose unilateral barriers to Brazilian products in the global market. It also creates a committee — which will be comprised of the ministers of trade, finance, foreign relations and the chief of staff — that will be in charge of deciding trade responses to other countries' unilateral measures. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs


12/07/25
News
12/07/25

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs

Washington, 12 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday said the US will impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and the EU beginning on 1 August. In a move that could significantly disrupt crude, refined product and other commodity flows, Trump made public on his social media platform letters sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Friday threatening the new tariffs. Trump also vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico or the EU were to retaliate with their own measures. The threats follow similar letters sent to leaders of other countries this past week, including a 35pc tariff on Canadian imports , likewise starting on 1 August, and a 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports . In his letter to Sheinbaum, Trump repeated previous justifications for higher tariffs by pointing to "Mexico's failure to stop the Cartels" smuggling fentanyl into the US. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough," Trump wrote. "If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 30pc that we charge," Trump wrote to Sheinbaum. His letter to von der Leyen included similar language. Trump's previous executive orders regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada carved out exemptions for goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. A White House official on Friday, following Trump's 10 July Canadian tariff announcement, said the exemption will remain in place, with a caveat that Trump has yet to determine the final form of application. Regarding the EU, Trump argued the 30pc figure "is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with the EU". Mexico's ministries of the economy, foreign affairs, finance, security and energy said in a statement Saturday that they met with their US counterparts on Friday to begin negotiations to head off the new tariffs before 1 August. "We stated at the meeting that [the new tariff plan] was unfair treatment and that we disagreed." After receipt of the new tariff letter, von der Leyen said Trump's tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The US has clinched only one limited trade deal, which keeps in place a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK while granting a lower-tariff import quota for UK-made cars. Trump has announced a deal with Vietnam, setting tariffs at 20pc. By David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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USDA boosts soy view on biofuel policy changes


11/07/25
News
11/07/25

USDA boosts soy view on biofuel policy changes

St Louis, 11 July (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) today raised its projected US soybean crush for the 2025-26 marketing year following recent policy changes that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil demand for biofuel production. US soybean crush is expected to rise to a record 69.1mn metric tonnes (t) in the 2025-26 marketing year, the USDA said Friday in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, up by 1.36mn t from the June report. The latest forecast marks a 5pc increase from volume projected for the 2024-25 marketing year. The higher outlook for soybean crush was driven by a substantial increase in anticipated soybean oil use for biofuel production, which the USDA places at 7.03mn t for the marketing year ahead, up by 27pc from the volume expected for the current marketing year. The increased biofuel use outlook follows US policy changes that significantly strengthen support for biofuels made from domestically produced feedstocks through changes to the 45Z biofuels tax credit and Renewable Identification Number credits generated through the Renewable Fuel Standard. The US is also proposing to require record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. With the increase in soybean crush, USDA expects domestic soybean oil production will rise to a record 13.6mn t in 2025-26, up by 4.1pc from the current marketing year. Additionally, the USDA revised higher its expectation for soybean oil imports in 2025-26 to 200,000t, up by 13pc from the current marketing year. Following an elevated export rate over the first half of the current marketing year, US soybean oil exports are projected to collapse in 2025-26, down by 73pc from the current marketing year to 318,000t. The reduction in exports, in combination with increased supply, is projected to exceed the gains in biofuel demand, increasing stocks to 758,000t by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year, up by 15pc from the inventory level projected for the end of 2024-25. Soybean meal supplies swell The jump in soybean oil demand is as also expected to result in a record level of US soybean meal production in 2025-26, up 4.5pc from 2024-25 to 54.3mn t, according to USDA. Both domestic use and exports of soybean meal are projected higher for the next marketing year following the increased supply outlook. US soybean meal exports are projected to reach 17mn t, up 7.5pc from 2024-25, while US soybean meal domestic use is projected to rise by 2.8pc to 37.9mn t. Soybean mean stocks are projected to increase as well, reaching 431,000t by the end of 2025-26, up 5.6pc from the level projected for the end of the 2024-25 marketing year. By Ryan Koory July 2025 USDA projections 2025-26 Chg from Jun 2024-25 Chg from Prior MY U.S. soybean oil supply and use ( mn t ) Supply -Beginning stocks 0.66 - 0.70 - -Production 13.59 0.27 13.06 - --Extraction ratio (pc) 19.67 0.00 19.83 - -Imports 0.20 0.07 0.18 -0.05 Total supply 14.46 0.34 13.95 -0.05 Use -Domestic disappearance 13.38 0.73 12.11 -0.14 --Biofuel 7.03 0.73 5.56 -0.39 --Food, feed and other Industrial 6.35 - 6.55 0.25 -Exports 0.32 -0.45 1.18 0.09 Total use 13.70 0.27 13.29 -0.05 -Ending stocks 0.76 0.06 0.66 - -Stocks-to-use (pc) 5.53 0.36 4.95 0.02 U.S. soybean meal supply and use ( mn t ) Supply -Beginning stocks 0.41 - 0.41 - -Production 54.30 1.04 51.98 - --Extraction ratio (pc) 78.54 -0.04 78.92 - -Imports 0.59 - 0.66 0.09 Total supply 55.29 1.04 53.05 0.09 Use -Domestic disappearance 37.90 0.41 36.85 0.09 -Exports 16.96 0.64 15.79 - Total use 54.86 1.04 52.64 0.09 -Ending stocks 0.43 - 0.41 - -Stocks-to-use (pc) 0.79 -0.02 0.78 -0.00 October-September markeing year — USDA, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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