US job growth slows sharply in July, jobless rate rises

Market: Coal, Metals, Natural gas
02/08/24

The US added 114,000 nonfarm jobs in July, much less than expected, as the jobless rate rose and average hourly earnings growth fell, all signs of an almost certain rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

Job gains followed downwardly revised gains of 179,000 in June and 216,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Gains were revised down by 29,000 for the two months.

Gains in July were well below the average 215,000 jobs added monthly for the prior 12 months.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3pc from 4.1pc.

Fed policymakers this week kept their target rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5pc, a 23-year high, but Fed chief Jerome Powell said a possible rate cut was "on the table" for September should the data — especially easing inflation pressures and weakening labor market conditions — keep moving in the right direction.

After the jobs report today, the CME's FedWatch tool showed 67.5pc odds of a 50 basis point cut, and 32.5pc probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, compared with 22pc and 72pc odds, respectively, on Thursday.A rate cut in September would come less than two months before the November national election and would be the first cut since early 2020, when Covid-19 struck the US.

Job gains were led by health care, construction, transportation and warehousing.

Health care added 55,000 jobs, construction added 25,000 and transportation and warehousing added 14,000 jobs. Manufacturing added 1,000 jobs compared with losses of 9,000 jobs in June. Mining, which includes oil and gas exploration and production, shed 1,000 jobs.

Average hourly earnings rose by an annual 3.6pc, down from 3.8pc in June and the lowest since May 2021.

By Bob Willis

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08/10/24

Serbia, N Macedonia sign agreement on gas link

London, 8 October (Argus) — The governments of Serbia and North Macedonia on 7 October signed an agreement on the construction of a 70km gas interconnector, although no timeline for the project was given. The agreement was signed in Skopje by the Serbian and North Macedonian prime ministers. Serbian prime minister Milos Vucevic said that with the new interconnection, Serbia aims to create another supply route from Greece's new Alexandroupolis LNG terminal, where Serbia's dominant supplier, Srbijagas, holds capacity . It is unclear why another route is needed given the recent commissioning of the Interconnector Bulgaria-Serbia, although flows through the link have been low since its commissioning at the beginning of this year, with Azerbaijan's Socar having been the only user under its so far underutilised 365mn m³/yr contract with Srbijagas. The 70km pipeline will have a capacity of about 1.2bn m³/yr, Vucevic said according to state news agency Tanjug, but no timeline was given for its construction. Serbia wants to "expand the number of partners interested in co-operating with us in the energy sector and that will definitely lead, or contribute, to our state's energy stability", Vucevic said, adding that the North Macedonian side also expressed interest in building an oil or oil products pipeline simultaneously with the gas pipeline. North Macedonia is also "finalising a tender procedure that will finally start the construction of the interconnector with our southern neighbour [Greece], to provide an additional option for gas supply to central Europe", Vucevic's North Macedonian counterpart, Hristijan Mickoski, said. Greek grid operator Desfa has already started construction of the 1.5bn m³/yr interconnector, which is scheduled to begin commercial operations at the start of 2026, according to Desfa's latest plans . By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German 3Q hard coal output falls on reduced fleet

08/10/24

News

08/10/24

German 3Q hard coal output falls on reduced fleet

London, 8 October (Argus) — Hard coal-fired output from German utilities dropped by 23pc on the year in July-September, largely driven by a smaller generation capacity following a series of plant retirements or returning to grid reserve in the first half of 2024. German hard coal-fired generation averaged 2.1GW in the third quarter, according to European grid operator Entso-E. Compared with a year ago this was equivalent to around 505,000t of NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal consumption, assuming 40pc efficiency plants. September output reached a seven-month high of 2.9GW, but it was down by 15pc from a year earlier. Germany's overall available hard coal-fired capacity was 6.5GW in September, cut by 1.6GW on the year, based on European Energy Exchange (EEX) data. The German hard coal fleet's implied load factor was 45pc in September, slightly higher than 41pc from a year ago. Trianel was the German utility with the highest hard coal-fired generation in July-September, as it raised the output from its sole 750MW hard coal plant Lunen 1 in northwest Germany by 28pc on the year to 380MW. Oynx meanwhile produced the second-highest hard coal output in the third quarter, averaging 352MW, as it was the generator with the sharpest rise in coal burn from a year earlier at 53pc. This was despite the company closing its 350MW Farge plant in March. Phase-out weigh on coal burn Uniper was Germany's largest hard coal-fired operator in the third quarter of last year, but its hard coal output halved on the year to just 316MW in July-September because the utility took off the bulk of its fleet from the market. Only the 1.05GW Datteln 4 plant was running in the third quarter, given Uniper placed its four other hard coal-fired units — the 345MW Scholven B, 345MW Scholven C, 522MW Staudinger 5 and 875MW Heyden 4 — into the grid reserve earlier this year. The company could no longer run hard coal plants within Germany in the near future as it seeks to sell Datteln 4 plant . Similarly, fellow utility EnBW transferred its 517MW Karlsruhe RDK 7 into the reserve in late May, which contributed to a 35pc on-year fall in its total hard coal-fired generation to 248MW in July-September. Steag took off a larger capacity of hard coal assets — around 2GW from three sites in Saarland — from the market in the first half, resulting in a 32pc drop on the year to 99MW in the third quarter. Smaller operators likewise exited coal this year, with Bremen-based SWB shutting down its 119MW Hastedt 15 hard coal-fired unit in the end of April. The municipal utility has already replaced Hastedt 15 with a 104MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant . In addition, Czech utility EPH retired the 690MW Mehrum 3 plant in late March, having returned to the market in August 2022. Elsewhere, Wolfsburg-based industrial user Volkswagen decommissioned its two 138MW coal-fired units in March as the company opted for coal-to-gas fuel switching. Firm renewables supress thermal generation Wind and solar output rose on the year in the third quarter, crowding out not only hard coal but also gas and lignite within the German power mix. Combined wind and solar generation averaged 23.3GW during July-September, up by 12pc on the year. Solar output alone picked up by 2.1GW, owing to a higher load factor and increased installed capacity. Considering hydro and biomass generation also incrementally rose on the year in the third quarter, the overall strength in renewables meant Germany had to cut down thermal power output and cross-border imports in a bid to balance out with the demand, which only rose by 3pc on the year to 54.8GW in the same period. Consequently, thermal generation from hard coal, gas and lignite all fell on the year in the third quarter, but lignite dropped to 7.4GW at a slower rate of just 4pc compared with other fuels because of its low fuel procurement cost. German lignite-fired plants typically source their fuel from nearby mines. German gas-fired output was down by 26pc on the year to 7.1GW in July-September, in part owing to theoretical spark spreads deteriorating from a year earlier. In the beginning of the third quarter, a typical 55pc-efficient gas-fired plant using German VTP supplies was ahead of a 40pc-efficient German hard coal-fired unit on a month-ahead basis, but in the end of the quarter, such coal-gas fuel switching dynamics flipped (see chart). Ronald Kim DE month ahead fuel switching € MWh €/MWh DE coal output by operator GW GW DE hard coal-fired output GW GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

08/10/24

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08/10/24

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

London, 8 October (Argus) — Last month was the second hottest September on record globally, after September 2023, with average temperatures 0.73°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to data from the EU climate-monitoring service Copernicus. Last month's average temperatures globally were 1.54°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels and September's average was the 14th month in a 15-month period when the global average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature for the 12 months to September was the second highest on record for any 12-month period — 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The January–September 2024 global-average temperature was 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for the period and 0.19°C warmer than the same period in 2023. It is almost certain that 2024 will turn out to be the warmest year on record, Copernicus said. The average temperature over European land for September 2024 was 1.74°C above the 1991-2020 average for September, making it the second warmest September on record for Europe after September 2023, which was 2.51°C above average. Last month also had exceptionally high rainfall levels across much of the continent, with widespread floods across central Europe. Last year was the hottest on record , averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial temperatures. By Gavin Attridge Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Kinder Morgan to shut Tampa terminals Tuesday

07/10/24

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07/10/24

Kinder Morgan to shut Tampa terminals Tuesday

Houston, 7 October (Argus) — Kinder Morgan is planning to shut its terminals and fuel racks in Tampa, Florida, on Tuesday as the region prepares for Hurricane Milton to make landfall Wednesday evening . "We will continue to monitor the storm's path and make any adjustments as needed," Kinder Morgan said in a statement on Monday. Kinder operates the Port Sutton, Tampa Bay Stevedores and Tampaplex terminals in Tampa's Hillsborough Bay and the Port Manatee terminal further south in the Tampa Bay. The terminals handle a wide range of bulk products including fertilizers, scrap metal, petroleum coke and coal according to Kinder Morgan's website. Kinder's Tampa refined products terminal has 1.8mn bls of storage and is connected to the Central Florida Pipeline (CFPL) which transports gasoline, diesel, ethanol and jet fuel to Orlando, including to Orlando International Airport. The airport said today that it will cease operations the morning of 9 October in advance of the hurricane. By Nathan Risser Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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CNRL to buy Chevron's Canadian oil sands, shale: Update

07/10/24

News

07/10/24

CNRL to buy Chevron's Canadian oil sands, shale: Update

New York, 7 October (Argus) — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) agreed to buy a 20pc stake in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) and 70pc interest in the Duvernay shale from Chevron for $6.5bn, extending its lead as Canada's top producer. The all-cash transaction has an effective date retroactive to 1 September, the companies said Monday. Closing is expected during the fourth quarter. The assets being sold accounted for about 84,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) of production, net of royalties, to Chevron last year. Chevron last October announced plans to acquire US independent Hess for $53bn, pledging to sell $10bn-$15bn of assets by 2028. While the Hess deal has been delayed by a mid-2025 arbitration hearing, Chevron, the second-largest US oil producer, has increasingly focused its attention on the Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, as well as an expansion project in Kazakhstan. CNRL's acquisition bolsters its position as Canada's largest petroleum producer after pumping out 1.29mn boe/d of oil and gas in the second quarter this year. About 72pc came from oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), with the balance from natural gas. CNRL anticipates the oil sands and Duvernay assets will lift the company's production profile by about 122,500 boe/d in 2025. About half, or 62,500 b/d, will come in the form of synthetic crude oil produced from AOSP's 320,000 b/d Scotford upgrader near Edmonton, Alberta. The upgrader is fed diluted bitumen piped from the Muskeg River and Jackpine mines in the oil sands region. The deal would increase CNRL's stake in AOSP to 90pc. Calgary-based CNRL first made its foray into AOSP in 2017 when it bought a 70pc stake from Shell and Marathon Oil Canada for $9.75bn ($C$12.74bn). Muskeg River and Jackpine are adjacent to the company's fully owned Horizon mine and upgrader, and the increase in ownership may allow for increased synergies between the two assets, according to executives. "It allows for a little bit more ease in terms of governance on the asset," CNRL president Scott Stauth said Monday on an investor call. "I can see us utilizing the equipment more effectively between the two sites." Undeveloped oil sands projects Also included in Monday's deal are additional stakes in undeveloped oil sands leases that CNRL could tap as it works through its reserves. This includes a 20pc increase the Pierre River project that would provide CNRL with 90pc ownership; a 60pc increase in the Ells River project that would lift the company's stake to 90pc; a 33pc increase in the Saleski project, for 83pc; and a 6pc working interest in Namur that would reach 65pc. Reserves from Pierre River could be used to extend the life of the Horizon project as the North Mine depletes. A standalone facility there is also possible, but would require a significant capital outlay, CNRL executives said. CNRL in May said it was considering a massive 195,000 b/d increase to its Horizon production using two new technologies. CNRL said production from the light oil and liquids rich assets in the Duvernay is expected to average 60,000 boe/d in 2025, half of which would be natural gas. CNRL anticipates pushing production to 70,000 boe/d by 2027 with more than 340 locations already identified as candidates for drilling. With WTI above $70/bl, "this is a very attractive acquisition for us," CNRL chief financial officer Mark Stainthorpe said. CNRL has been actively acquiring assets in recent years. The company purchased Canadian assets belonging to Painted Pony in 2020, Devon Energy in 2019, TotalEnergies in 2018 and Cenovus Energy in 2017, among other deals. By Stephen Cunningham and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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