Concerns over the possibility of lengthy strike action gained momentum in the Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat market at the start of the 2024-25 (August-July) season, export data show.
Exporters largely shied away from committing to late-August and September-loading sales ahead of planned industrial action at major rail networks Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN), which commenced on 22 August. Wheat volumes exported from Canadian ports fell short of average levels in the two weeks to 25 August, the latest data from the Canadian Grain Commission show, despite an uptick in loadings the preceding week.
In the week to 12 August, loadings trended significantly above the previous five-year average by around 86pc, probably as exporters looked to fulfil prior commitments ahead of the strike action.
Wheat vessel loadings at Canada's Vancouver port over the following two weeks were well below the average pace for the time of year, according to data from global analytics platform Kpler (see chart).
But federal government intervention effectively ended the industrial activity by forcing CPKC, CN and Teamsters Canada Rail Conference into binding arbitration on the same day as the strike started.
Premiums for spot shipments of CWRS 13.5pc gained value on 23 August, rising by 7.5¢/bushel (¢/bu) on the day against Minneapolis-listed December futures, after the resumption of rail activity, as participants returned to the Canadian wheat market. Argus-assessed differentials for CWRS fob Vancouver have remained at a 117.5¢/bu premium to MGEX futures since — their highest since mid-May.
