Plans for a hydrogen pipeline connecting Denmark to Germany have been delayed to 2031 from 2028, Danish state-owned transmission system operator (TSO) Energinet revealed today, in a move that will frustrate export-focused producers in Denmark and Germany's hydrogen import plans.
The TSO now expects that the Denmark-Germany export pipeline and southern part of the Danish domestic network could be ready by 2031, the middle section of the domestic network to be ready by 2032, while the northernmost part which will connect to hydrogen storage could be ready by 2033, it said (see map).
"Increased project complexity," the change to a two-step user pledge process, and longer than expected planning and environmental processes caused the setback, according to the TSO. The planning and environmental work could now take 40 months instead of the previously expected 18 months, which is now deemed unrealistic, Energinet said.
The timeline is "not what we expected, and it comes with great risks," Denmark's climate and energy minister, Lars Aagaard said. The government is working to make Energinet's schedule "more secure and limiting the delay," he added.
The delay is "extremely problematic and downright unacceptable" according to industry association Hydrogen Denmark's director Tejs Laustsen Jensen. "It is absolutely crucial that everything possible is done both from the political and administrative side to speed up the process," he added.
Energinet and the Danish climate and energy ministry will work together towards the 2031 aim and will also co-operate with their counterpart on the German side, Gasunie Deutschland, to have the connection ready at the same time on both sides of the border.
The delay will come as a further blow to the hydrogen import plans of neighbouring Germany, which has consistently said it cannot meet its demand with German production alone. Berlin has admitted its frustration that Norway's state-owned Equinor last month halted development of an export pipeline, where Germany had expected to be the main partner.
Take it one step at a time
Energinet's new phased approach to delivering the network could resolve the apparent impasse in financing the pipeline. Copenhagen had demanded a 1.4GW booking commitment from pipeline users, which several Danish market participants have said was impossible to meet in the near term.
Denmark could theoretically have 0.8GW–4.2GW of user demand for the pipeline network by 2031, according to Energinet, but it estimates only around 0.8GW of this transportation demand is of a high degree of maturity, it said.
Some of the more mature projects are located around Esbjerg near Denmark's west coast, such as 1GW proposals from H2 Energy Europe and CIP, which probably explains why the southernmost part of the pipeline has been prioritised for construction. Danish production plants are at "significantly different degrees of maturity," Energinet said.
Energinet has also proposed splitting the user pledge process into two phases. The capacity sale will determine the extent of the pipeline network that it will be possible for the government to finance. Energinet expects to present the final business case for the project in early 2026, it said.
Around 1.3GW of hydrogen transport demand is linked to electrolysis projects connected the ongoing offshore wind tenders, meaning these hydrogen plans cannot mature further until the tenders are decided, Energinet said.
Copenhagen could finance the southern "Lower T" section if 0.9GW of firm user commitments emerge, while a 1.2GW commitment could unlock an upper connection to Holstebro in northwest Denmark in 2032 and 1.4GW to Lille Torup and possible hydrogen storage in 2033. Energinet foresees total demand for hydrogen transport could reach 6.9GW in 2050.
"We are still ready to put state co-financing on the table if the industry leans into the project and commits to capacity," Aagaard said.
