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You can unsubscribe from these updates at any time. We manage your personal data in accordance with our privacy policy.Kuwaiti state-owned KPC has set its December sulphur price at $164/t fob, up by $19/t from November.
This implies a delivered price to China of $187-193/t cfr at current freight rates, which were assessed on 28 November at $23-25/t to south China and $27-29/t to Chinese river ports for a 30,000-35,000t shipment.
Updates with 1 month delay on tariffs. London, 3 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump will allow a one month pause before imposing a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports — including potash — from Canada. Trump signed executive orders on 1 February that will impose the levy on all US imports from Canada, although energy imports will have a lower 10pc tariff. Plans for the tariffs were announced in November, when Trump won the US presidential election, but most market participants did not expect them to be implemented, or expected that potash could be exempt, given that the US relies heavily on Canadian product. Most sources believed that the threat of tariffs was largely a bargaining tool related to border security. US fertilizer industry association The Fertilizer Institute said last week that there was not enough certainty as to whether or not the tariffs would be implemented, but if enacted would be counter to Trump's promise during his election campaign to lower grocery prices. Following the issuing of the executive order, TFI said it is ready to collaborate with the Trump administration to spur fertilizer industry growth. The US has limited domestic MOP production and over 80pc of its potash needs are sourced from Canada, around 9mn-10mn t/yr of MOP. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. The US also stopped taking MOP from Belarus in 2022 following sanctions, and the lack of Canadian MOP should only further limit supply options. What does this mean for the US potash market? The tariff will no doubt raise prices in the US. MOP prices at New Orleans (Nola) and across the Corn Belt have already edged higher in recent weeks because of concerns related to potential tariffs. Nutrien increased its post-winter fill potash offers on 28 January by $25/st to $340/st fot across US midcontinent warehouses, while river terminals rose to $335/st fob. Granular MOP fob Nola values have also risen, from $255/st at the start of the year to $265/st on 30 January, compared with $322.50/st fob in January 2024. Argus calculates that the tariff will add an average premium of around $60/t at the US-Canada border but it is uncertain how much of this cost will be passed onto the buyer, or how much will be swallowed by the producer. Regardless, the higher cost of Canadian potash will likely significantly reduce the volume purchased from Canada and push US buyers to turn to alternative suppliers, which may be cheaper. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 9mn-10mn t/yr of potash that the country needs. Prices for imported MOP may also benefit from an uptick in the price of Canadian potash, as other suppliers may raise prices to narrow the premium that Canada holds, while ensuring that they still remain competitive. For the upcoming spring application season in the US, there is likely to be limited effect as domestic supply is robust and suppliers have positioned stocks accordingly, but whether the tariff will still be in place when fall demand is anticipated is difficult to predict. How will this affect Canadian exports? If the US takes less potash from Canada, the country will have no option but to push more volume for offshore exports. Canada exports around 22mn t/yr of MOP, the bulk of which is handled by Canpotex, which markets product from Nutrien and Mosaic. Germany-based K+S also exports MOP from its Bethune mine in Saskatchewan. Canada typically exports around 11mn-12.5mn t/yr of MOP via Vancouver on the west coast, and Thunder Bay and Saint John's on the east coast. The maximum volume exported from these three ports in a year is around 14mn-15mn t. Another 3mn t can be moved via Portland in the US, which will be unaffected by the tariffs. But the Canadian rail system has reduced capacity to switch to ports and the export infrastructure will likely see bottlenecks, especially as all commodities will be affected, not just potash, which means that all products will be seeking alternative markets other than the US, and the only other option is to export. Higher pricing in the US could entice other suppliers to bring more to the US, diverting product away from key market Brazil. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium. But most imports into the US come through Nola, which is far from the main MOP consuming regions further north in the Corn Belt. It is clear that the US needs Canadian potash to meet typical US application levels, and that Canada needs the US as an outlet. There remains uncertainty over how long these tariffs will last and under what conditions they might be lifted. Although there appears to be a case for potash to receive an exemption from the executive order, nothing has been said to this effect by the Trump administration. In response to Trump's tariff executive order, the Canadian government announced its own 25pc tariff on more than $100bn of US imports. By Julia Campbell and Taylor Zavala Canada MOP exports to US ’000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
London, 3 February (Argus) — US sulphur consumers face higher prices as a result of President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on commodity imports from Canada and Mexico, which — along with the prospect of counter-measures — could disrupt North American sulphur trade in multiple ways. Trump issued an executive order on 1 February to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada, reduced to 10pc for energy imports, and 25pc on all Mexico-sourced commodities, with the measures to come into effect on 4 February . The tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico could raise sulphur prices for US consumers in two ways — directly, by increasing the price of Canadian sulphur imported to the US, and indirectly, by increasing the price of sour crude imports for US refineries, which is likely to lead to reduced flows resulting in lower domestic sulphur production and higher prices. Canadian sulphur is imported to the US for fertilizer production and industrial use, and tariffs would lead to a rise in delivered pricing of Canadian sulphur as a raw material for US fertilizer producers, with the likely knock-on impact of higher finished fertilizer prices. The US imported 850,000t of Canadian sulphur in January-November, with the majority being molten sulphur shipped by rail to the east coast, Midwest or Rocky Mountains regions. Canadian sulphur accounted for more 93pc of US sulphur imports during this period, up from 89pc from the same period in 2023. This high level of dependency is likely to mean that importers will have to accept higher prices in the near term while searching for alternative sources. Trade flow impact For their part, Canadian sulphur suppliers have some limited flexibility to increase their solid sulphur exports through Vancouver port to markets such as China, and limit liquid sulphur rail shipments to the US if tariffs make such shipments uneconomical. But a significant switch in the near term is unrealistic. Solid sulphur exports loaded at Vancouver port rose by 245,000t in 2024, bringing overall exports up by 7pc to 3.35mn t . The top destination for Canadian prilled sulphur from Vancouver last year was China, at 1.54mn t. Exports of solid sulphur through Vancouver have risen as a result of increased remelting and prilling of blocked sulphur this year from Alberta's roughly 12mn t of sulphur blocks built over time. This is expected to accelerate in 2025 as the new prilling capacity becomes more stable following earlier technical problems. But a lack of prilling capacity, the cost of additional processing, as well as limits on rail and port warehousing and loading capacity, will cap the potential to increase solid exports in the short term. Tightening availability and increasingly challenging affordability of Canadian sulphur could in turn push large US consumer Mosaic to import more solid sulphur from the Middle East for remelting in Tampa for fertilizer production. Smaller consumers, particularly in the northeast US, would likely be faced with the tariff impact. But the US may have more of its own sulphur available if Mexico responds to the US measures with counter-tariffs that disrupt the flow of US sulphur south. The US exported 376,000t of sulphur to Mexico in the first 11 months of 2024. Sulphur produced in the Gulf coast could be shipped by rail to the regions where Canadian sulphur is typically consumed, assuming infrastructure and railcar availability. But the increased freight cost could offset any potential savings relative to the 25pc tariff. In addition to rising sulphur costs, US fertilizer producers also face increased costs for imports of Canadian ammonia. These raw material price increases would be likely to be passed on to farmers, and with Canada also a large supplier of potash to the US fertilizer market, US farmers could bear the brunt of inflation driven by tariffs. Crude spillover Tariffs on crude trade between the US, Canada and Mexico will also impact the sulphur market. Canada and Mexico both export sour crude to the US, but the tariffs are likely to result in supplies from those countries being redirected to other markets. This could tighten the supply of sour crude to US refineries, reducing domestic sulphur production and pushing up prices. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex has more flexibility to divert its seaborne flows on economic grounds than Canadian heavy crude producers, whose output is primarily transported by pipeline to US refiners . By Maria Mosquera and Chris Mullins US sulphur imports* Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
London, 3 February (Argus) — Kuwait's state-owned sulphur producer KPC has set its February Kuwait Sulphur Price (KSP) at $170/t fob Kuwait. This is up by $2/t from January's KSP of $168/t fob. The February KSP implies a delivered price to China of $190-197/t at current freight rates, which were last assessed on 30 January at $20-23/t to south China and $25-27/t to Chinese river ports for a 30,000-35,000t shipment. The announced monthly KSP fob price has risen by $101/t over the past year, from $69/t fob Kuwait in February 2024. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Washington, 2 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is set to disrupt the integrated North American energy market with tariffs of 10pc on Canadian energy imports and 25pc on Mexico-sourced energy commodities, effective on 4 February. Trump on Saturday issued executive orders that would impose taxes of 25pc on all imports from Mexico and 25pc on all non-energy imports from Canada, effective on 4 February. Most energy commodities imported from Canada would be subject to a lower, 10pc tariff. Imported goods in transit before 12:01am ET on 1 February would not be subject to those levies. The Canada energy exemption applies to "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water and critical minerals". Trump and the White House did not explain why he made a slight concession on the Canadian energy commodities. The US-Canada energy trade is particularly vulnerable to tariffs, for both sides. More than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Conversely, many refineries in the US midcontinent have no practical alternative to the Canadian crude. Industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Saturday that it would "continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation's energy advantage and support American jobs". Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on China, by declaring a "national emergency" related to alleged inability of those countries to stem the flow of migrants and illegal drug fentanyl to the US. The White House in previous decades has used emergency declarations to impose sanctions against foreign countries, and US courts have stayed away from challenging the executive branch on such declarations and their economic applications. The choice of an emergency declaration also is meant to prevent the US Congress, which retains primary authority over US international trade, from intervening legislatively to remove tariffs. Congressional Republicans, at any rate, quickly hailed Trump's decision. By contrast, Democratic lawmakers and state officials denounced the tariffs and cited inflationary effects of the import taxes. Tit for tat Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday that his country's energy exports to the US would factor in with other retaliatory measures, possibly in the form of export taxes. "There are a number of different industries and regions of the country that can have greater leverage over the US," Trudeau said. "One thinks of the oil industry for example." Alberta premier Danielle Smith said on Saturday that she would oppose efforts to ban or to tax exports to the US. Trudeau said he would hold consultations with regional and business leaders before taking any counter-measures. But he added, "no one part of the country should be carrying a heavier burden than another." Trudeau said that Canada would apply a 25pc import tax on C$30bn ($21bn) worth of imports from the US on 4 February, followed by a 25pc tariff on an additional C$125bn worth of imports on 25 February. Denouncing Trump's punitive tariffs and his frequent derogatory comments about the US' northern neighbor, Trudeau, in comments directed at a US audience, said: "From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you." Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum likewise criticized Trump's action, characterizing as "slander" the text of his executive orders, which alleged that Mexico's government was an instrument of the country's drug cartels. But Mexico did not unveil specific countermeasures against Trump's tariffs. "I instruct the secretary of economy to implement Plan B, which we have been working on, including tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests," Sheinbaum said on Saturday. Trump's executive orders call for raising US tariffs if Canada and Mexico retaliate. Effects to be felt across the economy The North American energy industry is an obvious casualty of Trump's trade war. But its effects will be felt in automobile manufacturing, agriculture, steel, aluminum, potash and every other sector of the economy in all three countries. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets. The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free-flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said. North American steel trading costs could rise by as much at $5.3bn across the three nations, since Mexico and Canada are expected to issue reciprocal tariffs against the US, as it did when Trump issued tariffs in his first term. The tariffs could also disrupt US corn and soybean sales, since China and Mexico account for 48pc of US corn exports and 61pc of US soybean exports since 2019, according to US Department of Agriculture data. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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