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US river lock closures may delay product deliveries

  • Market: Biofuels, Coal, Fertilizers, Metals
  • 13/12/24

Mid-Mississippi River and Illinois River locks are expected to undergo long-term closures starting next month, slowing down some commodity deliveries.

Three locks around the St Louis, Missouri, and Granite City, Illinois, region will be closed for repairs for up to three months starting 1 January, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. The Mel Price Main Lock, where the Illinois River flows into the Mississippi River, and Lock 27's main lock, where the Missouri flows into the Mississippi, will also be closed from 1 January through 1 April.

The Mel Price Main Lock will commence the final phase of replacement for its upstream lift-gate. Replacement of embedded metals will occur during the closure for Lock 27's main lock. Lock 25 will have a shorter closure date for a sill beam and guide-wall concrete installment from 1 January through 2 March. This is the first lock on the upper Mississippi River, after the Illinois River.

These closures are expected to be more of a nuisance than a deterrent for commodity traffic, according to barge carriers. Ice in the river is likely to have melted by mid-March, which may cause barge carriers to wait in the St Louis harbor for the locks to open.

Two other lengthy closures are anticipated on the Illinois River beginning on 28 January. The Lockport Lock — the second to last lock on the Illinois River — will be fully closed from 28 January through 25 March for full repairs to the sill and seal of the lock. The prior lock, Brandon Road Lock, will be closed during weekdays over the same time period, but traffic can pass through over the weekend.

The lock closures and repairs are expected to delay some barge shipments, specifically to the Great Lakes and Burns Harbor.


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16/07/25

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF held its 2025 GDP growth forecast steady at 0.1pc in its July survey but warned the outlook could deteriorate if the US raises tariffs to 30pc. The survey of 43 analysts maintained projections for year-end inflation at 4pc and for the central bank's benchmark interest rate to fall from 8pc to 7.5pc by the end of 2025. The sharpest variation came in formal employment, after Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported a net loss of 139,444 formal jobs in the second quarter. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 160,000 from 190,000 in June — the seventh and largest downgrade this year. Job losses increased in April, May and June, "a situation not seen since the pandemic in 2020," IMEF said. "If this trend is not reversed, the net number of formal jobs could fall to zero by year-end." "It is still too early to call it a recession, but the rise in job losses is worrying," said Victor Herrera, head of economic studies at IMEF. "The next risk we face is in auto plants. Some halted production after the 25pc US tariff was imposed in April. They did not lay off workers right away — they sent them home with half pay. But if this is not resolved in the next 60-90 days, layoffs will follow." The July survey was conducted before US president Donald Trump said on 12 July he would raise tariffs on Mexican goods from 25pc to 30pc starting 1 August. "What we have seen in the past is that when the deadline comes, the tariffs are postponed or canceled," Herrera said. "Hopefully, that happens again. If not, you can expect GDP forecasts to shift into contraction territory." While the full impact would vary by sector, Herrera said the effective average tariff rate would rise from 4pc to 15pc, with most exports either exempt or subject to reduced rates under regional content rules. But 8–10pc of auto exports would face the full 30pc duty. IMEF expects the peso to end 2025 at Ps20.1/$1, stronger than the Ps20.45/$1 estimate in June. But the group warned that rising Japanese rates — which influence currency carry trades — and falling Mexican rates could put renewed pressure on the peso once the dollar rebounds. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast dropped to 1.3pc from 1.5pc, while the peso is seen ending that year at Ps20.75/$1, slightly stronger than the previous Ps20.90/$1 forecast. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US investigates Brazil barriers to US ethanol


16/07/25
News
16/07/25

US investigates Brazil barriers to US ethanol

Houston, 16 July (Argus) — The US Trade Representative (USTR) has launched an investigation into Brazilian trade practices that include import barriers against US ethanol. The USTR investigation will look at Brazilian trade barriers that US ambassador Jamieson Greer claims "restrict the ability of US exporters to access its market." "Brazil's tariff and non-tariff barriers merit a thorough investigation, and potentially, responsive action," he said. The notice for the investigation said US ethanol producers are unfairly affected by an 18pc tariff that Brazil imposes on US ethanol exports. The US and Brazil are the two largest ethanol-producing countries, combining for 52pc and 28pc of global production, respectively, according to data from the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol trade group. US exports to Brazil averaged 3,800 b/d, or just 2.7pc of overall US exports from January to May, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Exports to Brazil in 2024 were valued at $53mn, down from a peak of $761mn in 2018, according to the investigation notice. The US imported just 491 b/d from Brazil during the first five months of the year, equivalent to 81pc of total ethanol imports. The US imposes a combined 12.5pc tariff on Brazilian ethanol, which includes the blanket 10pc tariff announced in April and the existing 2.5pc duty. Growth Energy, another US ethanol trade organization, applauded the investigation. "Today's action by USTR is a sign that the old days of Brazil enjoying unfettered access to the US ethanol market while unfairly putting a tariff on American ethanol imports could soon come to an end," chief executive Emily Skor said. US President Donald Trump's administration earlier this year specifically noted Brazilian trade barriers against US ethanol as unfair and worth addressing. Trump has recently threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports starting 1 August, but tied those threats to the country's prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro for trying to overthrow elections in 2022. The Trump administration has discouraged Brazilian ethanol imports in other ways, including by proposing to revamp a long-running biofuel blend mandate by reducing lucrative credits for fuels made abroad. Last year, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy threatened to not cooperate with Brazil on ethanol or sustainable aviation fuel partnerships if the country did not eliminate the tariff. Reducing trade barriers in Brazil has been a longtime priority for the US ethanol lobby, which sees the potential to compete more in Brazil's Renovabio biofuel program. USTR will accept comments through 18 August with a hearing for the investigation scheduled for 3 September. By Payne Williams Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits


16/07/25
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16/07/25

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits

New York, 16 July (Argus) — A group of small oil refiners asked US officials at a recent meeting to not just grant exemptions from years-old biofuel blend mandates but to also provide lucrative program credits they can sell to other companies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed record-high biofuel blend mandates for the next two years, but farm groups fear that a backlog of exemption requests threaten those targets. There are more than 180 unresolved exemption requests stretching over 10 years after courts struck down various denials during former-president Joe Biden's term. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refiners and importers must annually blend biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. But refiners that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude and can prove "disproportionate economic hardship" are able to request full exemptions which can mean tens of millions of dollars in reduced compliance costs. In a 20 May meeting with EPA officials, a coalition of small refiners made the case that President Donald Trump's administration should not just grant broad relief from 2019-2022 mandates but also issue "replacement RINs" for any refiners that already complied. EPA should issue these RINs "with adequate lead time" before compliance deadlines and ensure they have "adequate shelf life", according to a proposal shared with EPA by a coalition lawyer and obtained by Argus through a Freedom of Information Act request. The agency should even consider giving companies more credits than they submitted if RINs are cheaper now, the group argued. RINs from those years are otherwise expired and would be useless if returned as is. "Hardship relief is more critical now than ever", the group of 14 companies argues, given rising biofuel quotas. The issue is politically tricky for EPA, since widespread waivers threaten biofuel and crop demand, and has been the subject of numerous court fights over the years. The first Trump administration handed out exemptions generously , but current officials have not yet staked out a clear position. EPA told Argus it is taking steps "to reduce the backlog as soon as possible". Living RIN the past EPA could potentially return credits on a staggered timeline or impose conditions on their use to avert market turmoil, according to lawyers and lobbyists experienced in waiver issues. The proposal alludes to this, noting however that "any conditions on RIN return that are intended to address potential market reactions must strike the appropriate balance to ensure flexibility to small refineries". Biofuel groups have lobbied against retroactive waivers but said that EPA could minimize the damage by making other oil companies blend more biofuels. 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And for 2023 and beyond, the refiners say that EPA should rely on "merit-driven scoring". EPA already consults with the Department of Energy, which scores hardship for individual applicants, though the importance of this feedback has varied over the program's history. The coalition also wants EPA to rescind three 2023 compliance year denials issued during the final days of Biden's term, which affected two Calumet refineries and one CVR Energy refinery. RINto the future The coalition's proposal is notable since small refiners — apart from a handful recently calling for a "seat at the table" — have largely not publicized their asks of the Trump administration, leading traders to speculate wildly on policy shifts. RIN prices have been volatile as a result. The coalition includes 14 companies that submitted 41 petitions that courts have told EPA to reconsider as well as 37 requests for more recent years, the proposal says. They are represented by independent attorney Claudia O'Brien, who did not respond to a request for comment. The documents obtained by Argus do not list all companies involved in the effort, but lawyers for Calumet, Par Pacific and Placid Refining were scheduled to attend the May meeting in person with top EPA appointees Aaron Szabo and Alexander Dominguez, while others attended virtually. O'Brien said in a separate email that Hunt Refining, REH Company, and Ergon were part of the coalition. The policy requests represent the position of one group and not necessarily all 34 refineries EPA estimates are eligible for future waivers. It is not clear how officials responded at the meeting or what options they are weighing now. EPA wants to finalize new blend mandates before November and has said it plans to communicate its approach to exemptions beforehand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . 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Pakistan's DAP stocks build in June


16/07/25
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16/07/25

Pakistan's DAP stocks build in June

London, 16 July (Argus) — Pakistan's national DAP stocks grew throughout June to 324,000t, the sixth consecutive monthly stockbuild in the country, according to data from Pakistan government agency National Fertilizer Development Centre. DAP cargoes lined up by importers ahead of global price increases earlier this year more than replaced early buying in the domestic market in anticipation of rising domestic costs. The country started June with 236,000t of DAP in stock. It imported 128,000t and produced a typical quantity of 75,000t in the month, outweighing sales of 115,000t by 88,000t. DAP offtake so far through Kharif, starting in April, now totals 308,000t. This remains below the 367,000t average for the same period over the three years up to the devastating floods that hit Pakistan in mid-June 2022. But it is 20pc above April-June offtake in 2024. Global DAP prices have escalated in recent months, pushing Pakistani import prices up by nearly $150/t from a midpoint of $652.50/t cfr at the beginning of April. This, coupled with higher raw material prices boosting production costs, has forced domestic DAP prices up to as high as 13,000 rupees/50kg bag ex-Karachi. The firm price trend spurred early domestic buying, but with farmer economics still poor thanks to low crop prices, distributors expect to see a downwards correction in domestic DAP offtake volumes throughout the remainder of Kharif and into Rabi, which starts in October. Cumulative DAP imports throughout Kharif comes to 219,000t, a significant rebound from the 113,000t average for April-June imports over the previous three years. But importers are now showing little interest in adding to the DAP line-up. Latest sales for Chinese DAP are reported in the $790s/t cfr, equivalent to a landed cost in the range Rs14,130-14,320/bag ex-Karachi at current exchange rates. This is well above current domestic prices, which are already leading to demand destruction among farmers. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK HDG buyers duplicate import orders amid quota issues


16/07/25
News
16/07/25

UK HDG buyers duplicate import orders amid quota issues

London, 16 July (Argus) — UK hot-dip galvanised importers are increasing imported order volumes in some instances because of the government's imposition of a 15pc cap on the other countries' quota. The UK business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, imposed the cap on 24 June, days before the quota reset on 1 July, stranding supply from South Korea and Vietnam . HMRC has now suspended clearances into the quotas for Vietnam and South Korea — the main users of the other countries' quota — until 1 August, meaning steel cannot be accessed even where buyers are willing to pay a duty. This is contributing to storage issues at major ports, particularly Liverpool. One service centre said major construction companies are worried about delays to some projects because of availability issues on particular gauges and coatings. Because of the potential disruption, some buyers have booked material elsewhere, in particular from Turkish rerollers, to avoid supply issues. The government's action, designed to protect the domestic producer Tata Steel, has "increased the amount of imports, as we are having to go elsewhere aside from South Korea and Vietnam", one service centre said. Tata does not produce all the necessary sizes and specifications for domestic buyers, sources suggest. There is typically abundant EU quota for HDG, but European mills, like Tata, struggle to compete with Asian sellers because of their higher energy costs. Simone Jordan, the director of the International Steel Trade Association (ISTA), called on the secretary of state to "address this catastrophic situation and reconsider his determination". Import volumes not rising There has been no real increase in third-country hot-dip galvanised coil imports into the UK since the US imposition of Section 232 in 2018. The country imported 468,500t of HDG last year, compared with just over 485,000t in 2018; there was a large jump in 2021, to over 732,000t, as buyers scrambled to source material following the Covid-19 pandemic, when demand increased much more sharply than European supply. The most notable change in imports is the increased share of South Korea, which has risen from around 15pc of non-EU imports in 2018 to over 43pc today. Much of that growth started last year, when a leading producer in the country started to divert automotive material into the general industrial market in the UK. Vietnamese volumes have also ratcheted up in recent years, partly because it was exempt from the safeguard on HDG for a period, before it came into scope. Vietnam is the largest importer of Chinese hot-rolled coil, whose low-priced exports have reshaped global trade flows in the last year. Turkey, which is now exempt from the UK safeguard on HDG, is also a large buyer of Chinese HRC; indeed, the country's rerollers can avoid dumping duties on Chinese material, provided it is re-exported. Vietnam and South Korea shipped over 281,000t of HDG to the UK last year, accounting for over 60pc of third country volumes, and account for almost three-quarters of third country imports over January-May this year. India has been the cheapest supplier of HDG into the UK on average this year, according to customs data. The average landed Indian price has been £587/t cfr, followed by Taiwan at £607/t and Vietnam at £618/t. Vietnam is the cheapest import source on average, at £472/t, closely followed by India at £475/t. Tata Steel is the largest buyer of Indian coil in the UK at present. By Colin Richardson UK HDG imports Tonnes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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