Viewpoint: USGC diesel exports may get European boost

Market: Oil products
02/01/25

US Gulf coast (USGC) diesel exports were on pace to rise in 2024, and growing demand from Europe could sustain the trend into 2025 as Brazil demand may falter.

US Gulf coast diesel exports rose to an estimated 242mn bl, or 661,000 b/d in 2024, up by 9.5pc from 2023, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. Figures are still subject to revisions as more information about cargoes and destinations in the final weeks of December become known.

Exports strengthened in the second half of 2024 despite headwinds. From July through December, exports rose to 728,000 b/d, up from 593,000 b/d in the first half of the year.

Europe was the top destination for US Gulf coast diesel exports in 2024, receiving 216,000 b/d, or 33pc, of the region's exports, up from 135,000 b/d, or 22pc, in 2023. South America was the second biggest destination for US Gulf coast diesel exports in 2024, even as the continent's share fell to 29pc from 35.5pc in 2023. Central America and Mexico received 24pc of US Gulf coast diesel exports in 2024.

US Gulf coast diesel exports to Mexico dropped to 103,000 b/d during the second half of the year, down by 21pc from the first half of 2024, according to Vortexa. Mexico's energy policies aim to drive the country closer to energy independence, and Pemex's new 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refinery is one tool to achieve that goal. The refinery was scheduled to fully be on line in 2024 but operated only intermittently during the year. It is expected to run more steadily in the first quarter 2025, according to market sources.

This could further reduce shipments from the US Gulf coast to Mexico. But demand in other markets may mitigate this loss.

While the total volume of diesel shipped to Mexico, Central and South America dropped by 12.2pc in 2024, diesel exports to the regions are expected to remain resilient in 2025, despite a traditional slowdown in the first two months of the year.

Typically, US Gulf coast diesel exports in January and February slow as winter weather clips European demand while South American demand drops after the main summer planting season concludes and as summer holidays reduce the number of trucks on the road.

Exports will likely pick up in March and continue to increase as the soybean harvest in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay boosts demand. Warmer weather in Europe will also increase demand as driving increases while European refiners undergo maintenance turnarounds in March and April.

EU diesel demand was strong in 2024 even as the energy transition advances renewable diesel and cleaner fuel sources. Among newly registered heavy trucks in the EU, 96.6pc run on diesel and 67pc of buses run on diesel, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.

European lawmakers plan to phase out sales of new diesel trucks and cars by 2040 and 2035, respectively, delayed from a prior 2030 deadline. This will ensure demand remains stable, if not higher, for 2025.

Russia's lower-priced diesel exports fulfilled Brazil's external needs for diesel in the first half of 2024. But in June, Russian refiners were unable to produce enough diesel to meet the country's demand, boosting US Gulf coast exports to Brazil to 43,000 b/d in the second half of the year, almost five times higher than the first half. Still, total US Gulf coast export volumes to Brazil for full-year 2024 were down by half when compared with 2023, as Russian exports to Brazil grew by 17pc to 150,000 b/d in 2024.

Slowing growth in Brazil is also likely to curb diesel demand next year. Brazil's central bank forecasts economic growth to slow to 2pc in 2025 from 3.5pc in 2024 on expectations for higher borrowing costs, as the depreciation of the real currency accelerated at the end of the year. Even so, US Gulf coast exporters will be poised to fill whatever demand Brazil can offer next year.

Going into the new year, US Gulf coast refiners seeking to export diesel will face challenges, but enough demand remains to keep volumes on track or even higher than 2024 levels.

By Carrie Carter

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