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Maduro claims Venezuelan presidency, sanctions build

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 10/01/25

Nicolas Maduro took the oath of office for a third term as Venezuela's president today in a small ceremony, prompting more condemnation from countries that reject his claim to the title.

Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel arrived in Venezuela ahead of the 45-minute ceremony, held in a side room at the national assembly. Maduro promised a "term of peace" in brief comments. Only state media was allowed to film the event, which was much smaller than his past two inaugurations.

Opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez, who has international support for his claim that he won the July presidential election, had said he would try to enter Venezuela from forced exile to claim the office.

The outgoing administration of President Joe Biden marked Maduro's inauguration by upping the bounty on him to $25mn, related to a criminal case filed by US federal prosecutors for the Venezuelan leader's alleged involved in drug trafficking.

"It is clear to the Venezuelan people, the United States and most of the world that Edmundo Gonzalez should be sworn in today as Venezuela's next president," a senior US official said.

But the Biden administration will not formally recognize Gonzalez as his country's legitimate leader — a decision that could have given him a say in managing some of Venezuela's foreign assets, including in the US.

"At this juncture, the US currently recognizes the democratically elected 2015 National Assembly as a legitimate government of Venezuela," the US official said.

The US also imposed sanctions on PdV president Hector Andres Obregon — another complication for PdV's foreign partners.

To constrain foreign revenue sources for Maduro's government, the US administration would continue to approve requests to seize Venezuelan sovereign assets in foreign countries to satisfy Caracas' debts, the US official said.

The most prominent of those cases is moving through a US federal court in Delaware, where Venezuela's creditors are close to finalizing the sale of PdV-owned US refiner Citgo.

But the Biden administration is not looking to revoke a license it granted in 2022, allowing Chevron to import into the US cargoes of oil produced in its joint venture with PdV — some 200,000 b/d last year.

Chevron's authorization "is a policy that we have been reviewing here at the highest levels for some time," the US official said. "One of the things that has driven our policy all along is a commitment to use strategic pressure on Maduro and his authorities when that is appropriate and will have proportionate impact."

The Biden team has held discussions with the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump on Venezuela, the official said. "Depending on the events that we see unfold in the next 10 days, we are ready to make a set of recommendations to the incoming administration with respect to the future of" licenses granted to Chevron and for some other foreign companies to operate in Venezuela.

Terms of peace

The inauguration drew other international actions.

Israel recognized Gonzalez as president of Venezuela today, describing Maduro as an "ally of Iran", adding its name to the long list of countries that do not recognize Maduro as president.

The EU also announced it was sanctioning another 15 Venezuelan nationals, including supreme court head magistrate Caryslia Rodriguez, who attended the ceremony today. There are now 70 Venezuelans, including military and civilian, present and former officials, under EU sanction.

Venezuela's response to the condemnation has been to increase military and policy control in Caracas, arrest protesters and threaten to "neutralize" any aircraft carrying Gonzalez in its airspace.

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was also briefly held on Thursday after emerging from several months of hiding to lead an anti-Maduro rally, her allies said.


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16/05/25

US House panel votes down Republican megabill

US House panel votes down Republican megabill

Washington, 16 May (Argus) — A key committee in the US House of Representatives voted today to reject a massive budget bill backed by President Donald Trump, as far-right conservatives demanded deeper cuts to clean energy tax credits and social spending programs. The House Budget Committee failed to pass the budget reconciliation bill in a 16-21 vote, with four House Freedom Caucus members — Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina), Chip Roy (R-Texas), Josh Brecheen (R-Oklahoma) and Andrew Clyde (R-Georgia) — voting no alongside Democrats. A fifth Republican voted no for procedural reasons. The failed vote will force Republicans to consider major changes to the bill before it comes up for a vote on the House floor as early as next week. Republican holdouts say the bill would fall short of their party's promises to cut the deficit, particularly because it would front-load increased spending and back-load cuts. The bill is set to add $3.3 trillion to the deficit, or $5.2 trillion if temporary provisions were permanent, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Some critics of the bill said the proposed cut of $560bn in clean energy tax credits is not enough, because the bill would retain some tax credits for new wind and solar projects. "A lot of these credits have been in existence for 30 or 40 years, and you talk about giveaways, we want to help those who really need help," Norman said ahead of his no vote. "That's the heart of this. Sadly, I'm a no until we get this ironed out." Negotiations will fall to House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who can only lose three votes when the bill comes up for a vote by the full House. But stripping away more of the energy tax credits enacted in the Inflation Reduction Act could end up costing Johnson votes among moderates. More than a dozen Republicans on 14 May asked to pare back newly proposed restrictions on the remaining clean energy tax credits. Ahead of the failed vote, Trump had pushed Republicans to support what he calls the "Big Beautiful Bill". In a social media post, he said "Republicans MUST UNITE" in support of the bill and said the party did not need "GRANDSTANDERS". The failed vote has parallels to the struggles that Democrats had in 2021 before the implosion of their push to pass their sprawling "Build Back Better" bill, which was later revived as the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans say they will work over the weekend on a compromise. The House Budget Committee has scheduled another hearing at 10pm on 18 May to attempt to vote again on the budget package, but any changes to the measure would occur later, through an amendment released before the bill comes up for a vote on the House floor. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump says US will soon set new tariff rates


16/05/25
News
16/05/25

Trump says US will soon set new tariff rates

Washington, 16 May (Argus) — The US will unilaterally set new tariff rates on imports from select trading partners instead of holding negotiations over import tax levels, President Donald Trump said today. In the next 2-3 weeks "we'll be telling people what they will be paying to do business in the US," Trump told a group of US and UAE business executives in Abu Dhabi today. Trump contended that more than 150 US trading partners have expressed interest in negotiating with his administration, adding that "you're not able to see that many countries." Trump's administration since 5 April imposed a 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every US trading partner — with the notable exception of Canada, Mexico and Russia. Trump paused his so-called "reciprocal tariffs" until 8 July, nominally to give his administration time to negotiate with foreign countries subject to those punitive rates. The reciprocal tariffs would have added another 10pc on top of his baseline tariff for imports from the EU, while the cumulative rate would have been as high as 69pc on imports from Vietnam. Trump in April suggested that 200 deals with foreign trade partners were in the works. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said the US is only negotiating with the top 18 trading partners. The trade "deals" clinched by the Trump administration so far merely set out terms of negotiations for agreements to be negotiated at a later date. The US-UK preliminary deal would keep the US tariff rate on imports from the UK at 10pc, while providing a quota for UK-manufactured cars and, possibly, for steel and aluminum. The US-UK document, concluded on 9 May, explicitly states that it "does not constitute a legally binding agreement." The US-China understanding, reached on 12 May, went further by rolling back some of the punitive tariff rates but left larger trade issues to be resolved at a later date. The Trump administration would keep in place a 20pc extra tariff imposed on imports from China in February-March and a 10pc baseline reciprocal tariff imposed in April. The US will pause its additional 24pc reciprocal tariff on imports from China until 10 August. Conversely, China will keep in place tariffs of 10-15pc on US energy commodity imports that it imposed on 4 February, and 10-15pc tariffs on US agricultural imports, imposed in March. It will maintain a 10pc tariff on all imports from the US that was imposed in April, but will pause an additional 24pc tariff on all US imports until 10 August. These rates are on top of baseline import tariffs that the US and China were charging before January 2025. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Kuwait's Kufpec gets OK to develop Indonesian gas field


16/05/25
News
16/05/25

Kuwait's Kufpec gets OK to develop Indonesian gas field

Singapore, 16 May (Argus) — Kuwait's Kufpec, a unit of state-owned KPC, has won approval from the Indonesian government for a plan of development for the Anambas gas field located in the West Natuna Sea offshore Indonesia. The Anambas field is located in the Natuna basin and has an estimated gas output of about 55mn ft³/d. Kufpec will invest around $1.54bn into the development of the field, which is planned to come on stream in 2028. The approved plan of development outlines a phased strategy to unlock the gas and condensate potential of the field, said upstream regulator SKK Migas. The regulator will encourage Kufpec to accelerate efforts and bring the project on stream by the fourth quarter of 2027, said the head of SKK Migas, Djoko Siswanto. The development of the field will include drilling production wells and installing subsea pipelines to transport gas from Anambas to existing facilities in the West Natuna transportation system. Kufpec in 2022 announced the discovery of gas and condensate at the Anambas-2X well in the Anambas block. The Anambas block was awarded to Kufpec Indonesia in 2019 through a bidding process. The company holds a 100pc participating interest in the block and has a 30-year production sharing licence, including a six-year exploration period. The approval of the plan of development marks a step towards the project's final investment decision. It also shows that the upstream oil and gas sector in Indonesia is still attractive to domestic and foreign firms, said Djoko. The field is expected to be able to transport gas to domestic and regional markets, support Indonesia's energy security, and drive economic growth, according to SKK Migas. Indonesia continues to prioritise oil and gas expansion to maintain economic growth. Investment in oil and gas rose from $14.9bn in 2023 to $17.5bn in 2024, according to the country's energy ministry. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook


15/05/25
News
15/05/25

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook

London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA has nudged up its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and 2026, citing better macroeconomic forecasts and the effects of lower oil prices. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based watchdog raised its projected increase in oil consumption by 20,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2025, bringing overall demand to 103.9mn b/d. It increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 760,000 b/d. In its previous OMR the IEA cut its oil demand forecasts for 2025 by 310,000 b/d after the US' announcement of an array of import levies in April. But the IEA said today the tariff supply shock appeared less severe than initially implied, pointing to subsequent US trade arrangements with the UK and China. US talks with other countries continue. "Subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies' permanence and economic impact," the IEA said. But it said policy uncertainty continued to weigh on consumer and business sentiment, and it sees oil consumption growth slowing to 650,000 b/d between now until the end of 2025, from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter of the year. Its demand growth forecast for 2025 is 320,000 b/d lower than at the start of the year. The IEA increased its global oil supply growth forecast by 380,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d in 2025, with almost all the rise accounted for by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ cuts. It nudged its oil supply growth forecast for 2026 up by 10,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d. Eight Opec+ members earlier this month agreed to continue accelerating the pace of their planned unwinding of 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts for June. The IEA again revised down its supply growth forecasts for the US, mainly because of the effects of lower oil prices on US shale producers. It downgraded US growth by 50,000 b/d to 440,000 b/d for 2025 and by 100,000 b/d to 180,000 b/d for 2026, and said US tight oil production in 2026 would contract on an annual basis for the first time since 2020. The IEA said sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela are a key uncertainty in its forecasts. It noted that Russian crude supply grew by 170,000 b/d in April as crude prices fell below the G7 $60/bl price cap. The IEA's balances show supply exceeding demand by 730,000 b/d in 2025 and by 930,000 b/d in 2026. It said global observed stocks rose by 25.1mn bl in March, with preliminary data showing a further rise in April. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Shale unable to absorb price decline: Continental


14/05/25
News
14/05/25

Shale unable to absorb price decline: Continental

New York, 14 May (Argus) — Shale output growth plans are being sidelined for the time being as this year's decline in oil prices curtails investment into the sector, according to the chief executive officer of Continental Resources. "There's nothing that we can use in the industry to absorb a $10/bl drop in price from a technology standpoint," chief executive officer Doug Lawler said at the Super DUG Conference & Expo 2025 in Fort Worth, Texas, today. "There are not capital efficiencies that can be captured that makes up $10/bl." The pullback in capital that is starting to be seen across the industry as a result of the price rout caused by uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariffs and surging Opec+ supply will continue as the year progresses, Lawler said. Top shale company executives have warned in recent weeks that shale is in for a rough ride given the price drop, which has since stabilized following a US-China trade truce agreed last weekend. US onshore crude production has likely peaked , according to leading independent Diamondback Energy, while Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub warned the peak could come sooner than expected . "I would maybe caveat it just a little bit different, and not call it a peak, necessarily, but I think we're in for a period of a plateau," Lawler said today. Earlier this year, Continental announced a joint venture with Turkey's national oil company and US-based TransAtlantic Petroleum to develop oil and gas resources in southeast and northwest Turkey. "We don't see it necessarily as an international strategy," Lawler said. "We really see it more as a continuation of the history and heritage of the company, of being exploration-focused." It also should not be viewed as the company seeing a lack of domestic opportunities, given 5-10pc of its overall annual capital budget will be directed at exploration over the next few years. Continental, which was founded by shale billionaire and leading Trump donor Harold Hamm in 1967, is the largest leaseholder and producer in the Bakken basin. It also has positions in the Scoop and Stack plays of the Anadarko basin of Oklahoma, and is also active in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Permian basin of Texas. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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