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UK sets out '1.5°C-aligned' climate plan to 2035

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 30/01/25

The UK has released its third national climate plan, reiterating its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals, and to its 2035 target of an 81pc cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, from 1990 levels.

UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced the 2035 target at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in November last year. Countries and jurisdictions that are signatories to the Paris climate agreement commit to submitting new national climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — every five years, to UN climate body the UNFCCC. The agreement includes a ratchet mechanism, whereby climate targets should become more ambitious over time.

Today's NDC — the UK's third — covers 2031-35. The document consolidates plans already in place, and flags upcoming strategies. The government plans for "clean sources" of power to make up 95pc of the country's generation by 2030, cutting carbon intensity of electricity generation to "well below" 50g CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per kWh in 2030. Carbon intensity was 171g CO2e/kWh in 2023. And the plan notes that the UK was the first G7 country to shut down all coal-fired power, closing its last plant in September 2024.

The government has pledged "an initial" £3.4bn ($4.24bn) towards decarbonising heat and improving household energy efficiency over the next three years, and will introduce the delayed clean heat market mechanism in April. The scheme will require boiler manufacturers to ensure a proportion of their sales are "low carbon options".

The plan sets out the government's manifesto pledge to phase out sales of new cars "relying solely on internal combustion engines" by 2030, and notes that it will consult on issuing no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields. The government also promises "an updated cross-economy plan to meet our climate targets in due course", as well as a new industrial decarbonisation strategy by 2026.

The NDC is in line with advice from the UK's independent advisory Climate Change Committee, and with the country's legally binding sixth carbon budget. The latter includes international aviation and shipping emissions, although NDCs do not require this. The UK's third NDC is "a credible contribution towards limiting warming to 1.5 °C and it sits within a range of Paris-consistent equity metrics", the government said. The Paris accord seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C.

The country's Labour government, which took power in July last year, has repeatedly underlined its commitment to the UK's legally binding target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050.

The plan took some direction from the outcome of Cop 28, in December 2023. Countries agreed at Cop 28 to transition away from fossil fuels and to treble renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW by 2030.

The NDC also underlined the UK's commitment to spending £11.6bn in international climate finance over April 2021-March 2026, and will outline future climate finance plans in its spring 2026 spending review. UK international climate finance over April 2011-March 2024 reduced or avoided 105mn t of GHG emissions, the government said.


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13/02/25

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

London, 13 February (Argus) — The IEA said today that the Opec+ alliance's improving compliance with agreed crude production targets is "slowly chipping away" at its projected supply surplus this year. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency again lowered its forecasted surplus for this year, this time by 270,000 b/d to 450,000 b/d. This is the agency's third consecutive downgrade since November, when it saw 2025 supply outstripping demand by 1.15mn b/d. These forecasts are subject to change. With data now "largely complete" for 2024, the agency's balances show supply matching and demand exactly at 102.9mn b/d. This is a long way off the 800,000 b/d supply surplus the IEA forecast for 2024 this time last year. Opec+ is implementing three sets of crude production cuts, and is scheduled to start unwinding one of these — totalling 2.2mn b/d — starting in April. A recent meeting of the group's key producers signalled no change to this plan . The IEA continues to assume all Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year. But the agency said that should production return as planned, this would add 430,000 b/d to its 2025 supply forecast. Aside from Opec+, there are other key supply uncertainties this year. These range from new US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil exports to US tariffs on some of its key trading partners. "It is still too early to tell how trade flows will respond to new US tariffs or the prospect thereof, and what the impact of the escalation of sanctions on Iran and Russia may be in the longer run," the IEA said. As thing stand, the IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.56mn b/d this year to 104.45mn b/d, compared with growth of 1.76mn b/d projected in its January report. This slower growth was largely driven by Opec+, which the agency now sees supplying 170,000 b/d less than previously thought this year. It also noted a 950,000 b/d fall in global oil supply in January, "with extreme cold weather hitting North American supply, compounding large declines in Nigerian and Libyan production." On demand, the agency upgraded its growth forecast this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d. It sees oil demand at 104mn b/d in 2025, driven by "a minor pickup in GDP growth and lower oil prices as per the current forward curve." The IEA said global observed oil stocks fell by 17.1mn bl in December. Crude stocks fell by 63.5mn bl and products stocks rose by 46.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show global stocks falling by 49.3mn bl in January, led by large draw in China. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec

London, 12 February (Argus) — Opec said today that the US' new trade policies have added "more uncertainty" into global oil markets. This uncertainty "has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility", Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The producer group said the uncertainty has also "increased inflation expectations" and "made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025". US president Donald Trump started his new term in January with threats to impose a wide array of import tariffs on several big trading partners. Washington has so far announced new tariffs on imports from China, as well as on all US imports of steel and aluminium. And Trump says more tariffs are on the way. For now, Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d. In terms of supply, the group has downgraded its growth forecast for non-Opec+ liquids for 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 b/d each to 1mn b/d for both years. The downgrade is driven by the US and Latin America. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 118,000 b/d to 40.625mn b/d, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Americas dominate Spain's crude imports in 2024


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Americas dominate Spain's crude imports in 2024

Madrid, 12 February (Argus) — Spain's crude imports from the Americas climbed sharply in 2024 to account for more than half of total receipts for the first time on record. Spanish crude imports increased by 5pc on the year to more than 1.29mn b/d, according to petroleum reserves regulator Cores, driven by double-digit growth in receipts from the three largest suppliers the US, Mexico and Brazil. This combined with a respective doubling and tripling of imports from smaller suppliers Venezuela and Guyana to give the Americas a 53pc share of Spanish receipts in 2024, up from 47pc in 2023. Imports were 200,000 b/d below the Spanish refining system's 1.49mn b/d of crude distillation capacity, which like other European countries refineries continued to struggle with competition from cheap imported finished products. North America accounted for 31pc of imports. The US led suppliers for a second consecutive year, with receipts rising by 18pc to 214,000 b/d. Imports from Mexico climbed by 20pc to 161,000 b/d as higher supplies of lighter Olmeca and Isthmus grades more than offset lower amounts of heavy Maya crude at integrated Repsol's refineries. Receipts from Spain's second largest supplier Brazil climbed by 38pc to 181,000 b/d. Those from Venezuela more than doubled to 58,000 b/d after Repsol increased imports under its crude-for-debt deal with state-owned PdV. The Mideast Gulf accounted for just 8pc of Spanish crude imports in 2024, down from 12pc in 2023 as unrest in the region reshaped shipping routes. Receipts from Iraq dropped by 38pc to 38,000 b/d, from Saudi Arabia they fell by 15pc to 70,000 b/d and there were none from the UAE. Africa's share of Spain's crude slate narrowed in 2024. Receipts from Nigeria fell by 21pc to 129,000 b/d, and from Libya they fell by 13pc to 88,000 b/d. Opec's share of Spanish crude imports fell to a record low of 37pc in 2024 from 44pc in 2023 and around 50pc over the past decade. Its share was 35pc of 1.24mn b/d in December. Spain's year-on-year import growth slowed to 3pc in December from 14pc in November. Deliveries were lower at Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery ahead of maintenance in January, rose at Moeve's 244,000 b/d Algeciras facility after conclusion of work there and rose back to capacity at Repsol's 135,000 b/d Coruna after maintenance finished at the start of December. Spain imported crude from 15 countries in December, down from 17 in November as slates narrowed and receipts rose from Nigeria and Mexico. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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