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Immigration trumps sanctions in US-Vz talks: Update

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 31/01/25

Adds comment from Trump.

US president Donald Trump's administration is prioritizing discussions on immigration and detainees over other issues in relations with Venezuela, suggesting no imminent move to tighten sanctions on oil exports.

US special envoy Ric Grenell landed in Caracas, Venezuela, today to discuss repatriations and the liberation of US citizens detained in the South American country, the White House confirmed.

The envoy went with two orders from Trump: to ensure that "Venezuelan nationals that have broken our nation's laws will land in Venezuela," and that "all US detainees in Venezuela are returned," a White House official said.

National assembly president Jorge Rodriguez and foreign minister Yvan Gil were shown on Venezuelan television meeting Grenell on the tarmac.

The US said it plans to deport 400 members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua that it has arrested.

US citizens in custody in Venezuela include three arrested in September for allegedly plotting to overthrow Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Another six US citizens are also being held in Venezuela, according to human rights groups.

The negotiations with Venezuela do not mean that the US recognizes Maduro as a legitimate president, the official said. The US and many other countries hold that Venezuela's July elections were fradulant and that exiled opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez won the vote.

The US in April in the run-up to the election revoked a temporary lifting of some crude sanctions on Venezuela after it became clear that Venezuela would not let primary opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado run. Gonzalez ran in her place.

Trump has discussed possibly tightening crude sanctions on Venezuela, which were originally put in place during his first term. Former president Joe Biden's administration began allowing Chevron to export crude again from its joint ventures in Venezuela to the US only, which averages about 200,000 b/d.

The US president critized that shift today, but did not mention increasing sanctions.

"We're not going to let that stupid stuff happen," Trump said. "So we'll see what happens. We're not happy with Venezuela."

The meetings come as secretary of state Marco Rubio begins his first foreign visit in his new capacity with a stop in Panama. Trump has demanded concessions for US vessels passing through the critical waterway and publicly mulled taking over the canal from Panama.

Grenell's discussions do not indicate a change in US priorities about Venezuela just as Rubio goes to the region, US special envoy on Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said.

The US urged Maduro to heed Grenell's demands "and what he puts on the table, because ultimately there will be consequences otherwise," Claver-Carone said.


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10/07/25

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

London, 10 July (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast by nearly 3mn b/d, driven by stronger growth in India and the Middle East and a shifting policy landscape that it says is reinforcing fossil fuels' role in the global energy mix. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," Opec secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in the group's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), repeating a line he used in last year's edition and underscoring Opec's ongoing rejection of forecasts that see oil use peaking before 2030. Opec argues that such forecasts underestimate demand growth in developing economies and overstate the pace of the energy transition. The 2025 WOO lifts Opec's 2050 oil demand projection to 122.9mn b/d, from 120.1mn b/d in last year's WOO. Its 2040 forecast is revised up to 120mn b/d from 117.8mn b/d. The 2030 outlook is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, but the group sees a steeper rise in demand in the later years of the forecast. While the overall trajectory remains consistent with last year's WOO, the new report places greater emphasis on policy recalibration in major economies. It highlights growing political resistance to decarbonisation targets — particularly in the US and parts of Europe — and said energy affordability and supply security are increasingly shaping national strategies. These shifts, Opec suggests, are slowing the pace of energy transitions and supporting continued oil demand growth. The 2025 WOO adopts a more cautious tone on electrification, citing infrastructure and cost challenges, and acknowledges the geopolitical effect of the US' second withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — a development not covered in last year's edition. India leads the pack India makes the biggest single contribution to the long-term demand increase. Opec forecasts the country's oil use to more than double from 2024, to 13.7mn b/d by 2050. Demand in China, on the other hand, rises in the medium term but flattens after 2035, reflecting slower economic growth and rising electric vehicle uptake. OECD demand is projected by Opec to edge up to 46.6mn b/d by 2030 — from 45.7mn b/d in 2024 — before entering a steady decline. By 2050, it is put at 37.2mn b/d, led by sharp reductions in Europe's transport and residential sectors. The sectoral breakdown remains broadly unchanged from last year. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation account for most of the demand growth between 2025 and 2050. Oil use in road transport is forecast to rise by 5.3mn b/d, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.7mn b/d. Supply to match demand On the supply side, Opec projects global liquids output at 113.6mn b/d by 2030 and 123mn b/d by 2050. It still expects US production to peak at just over 23mn b/d around 2030, before falling to 19.6mn b/d by mid-century. Non-Opec+ supply is seen plateauing in the 2030s, with Opec+ producers expected to meet most of the incremental demand, lifting their share of global supply to 52pc by 2050 from 48pc in 2024. Opec estimates $18.2 trillion of investment will be needed to meet oil demand through to 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in the 2024 report. Of the total, $14.9 trillion — more than 80pc — is allocated to upstream. The group reiterated that underinvestment could threaten future supply security and market stability. The report notes refining capacity is expected to keep pace with long-term demand growth, but warns of a potential short-term tightening later this decade as the rise in oil demand outpaces new capacity — particularly in Asia-Pacific. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff: Update


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff: Update

Updates with comments from Brazil's vice president Washington, 9 July (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing the ongoing trial of that country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Trump's letter to Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, released on Wednesday, is one of the 22 that the US leader sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will be charging on imports from those countries. But his letter to Brazil stands out for allegations of a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, who — much like Trump — disputed his electoral defeat and attempted to stay in office. Brazil's supreme court qualified Bolsonaro's actions in 2022 as an attempted coup, ordering him to stand trial. Trump said he will impose the 50pc tariff because "in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections and the Fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans". The latter is a reference to orders by judges in Brazil to suspend social media accounts for spreading "misinformation". Trump separately said he would direct US trade authorities to launch an investigation of Brazil's treatment of US social media platforms — an action likely to result in additional tariffs. Trump's letter to Lula also contains language similar to that included in letters sent to 21 other foreign leaders, accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices and suggesting that the only way to avoid payments of tariffs is if Brazilian companies "decide to build or manufacture product within the US". The Trump administration since 5 April has been charging a 10pc extra "Liberation Day" tariff on most imports — energy commodities and critical minerals are exceptions — from Brazil and nearly every foreign trade partner. Trump on 9 April imposed even higher tariffs on key trading partners, only to delay them the same day until 9 July. On 7 July, Trump signed an executive order further delaying the implementation of higher rates until 12:01am ET (04:01 GMT) on 1 August. Trump earlier this week threatened to impose 10pc tariffs on any country cooperating with the Brics group, which includes Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa. Lula hosted a Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. Brazil vice president Geraldo Alckmin, speaking to reporters before Trump made public his letter to Lula, said: "I see no reason (for the US) to increase tariffs on Brazil." The US runs a trade surplus with Brazil, Alckmin said, adding that "the measure is unjust and will harm America's economy". Trump has justified his "Liberation Day" tariffs by the need to cut the US trade deficit, but the punitive duties also affect imports from countries with which the US has a trade surplus. By Haik Gugarats and Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff

Washington, 9 July (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing the ongoing trial of that country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Trump's letter to Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, released on Wednesday, is one of the 22 that the US leader sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will be charging on imports from those countries. But his letter to Brazil stands out for allegations of a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, who — much like Trump — disputed his electoral defeat and attempted to stay in office. Brazil's supreme court qualified Bolsonaro's actions in 2022 as an attempted coup, ordering him to stand trial. Trump said he will impose the 50pc tariff because "in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections and the Fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans". The latter is a reference to orders by judges in Brazil to suspend social media accounts for spreading "misinformation". Trump separately said he would direct US trade authorities to launch an investigation of Brazil's treatment of US social media platforms — an action likely to result in additional tariffs. Trump's letter to Lula also contains language similar to that included in letters sent to 21 other foreign leaders, accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices and suggesting that the only way to avoid payments of tariffs is if Brazilian companies "decide to build or manufacture product within the US". The Trump administration since 5 April has been charging a 10pc extra "Liberation Day" tariff on most imports — energy commodities and critical minerals are exceptions — from Brazil and nearly every foreign trade partner. Trump on 9 April imposed even higher tariffs on key trading partners, only to delay them the same day until 9 July. On 7 July, Trump signed an executive order further delaying the implementation of higher rates until 12:01am ET (04:01 GMT) on 1 August. Brasilia did not immediately react to Trump's threat of higher tariffs. Trump earlier this week threatened to impose 10pc tariffs on any country cooperating with the Brics group, which includes Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa. Lula hosted a Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Market needs Opec+ output hikes : UAE energy minister


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Market needs Opec+ output hikes : UAE energy minister

Vienna, 9 July (Argus) — The oil market needs the additional crude supply coming from Opec+'s accelerated output hikes, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said today, citing the absence of stockbuilds since eight core members of the group began raising production targets earlier this year. "Even with the increases over several months, we haven't seen a major buildup in inventories, which means the market needed those barrels," al-Mazrouei said in Vienna, where he is attending the 9th Opec International Seminar. "We need to look at the fundamentals and build the narrative around them, rather than just news and speculation," he added. Al-Mazrouei said the market is "deeper than what is perceived," referring to a decision by eight Opec+ members to raise their collective August crude production target by 548,000 b/d — a step up from the 411,000 b/d monthly hikes agreed for May, June and July. The eight countries — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — had originally planned to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. Asked whether Opec+ is concerned about supply outpacing demand later this year, al-Mazrouei said the group assesses the balance at each meeting. He said focusing solely on prices is short-sighted. "What we want is stability," he said. "That goal requires accepting whatever price the market accepts." Al-Mazrouei also warned of the risks posed by underinvestment in oil and gas. "We are living in an underinvestment environment in oil and gas. The longer this period lasts, the more pain we will face in the years to come," he said. By Bachar Halabi, Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mideast NOCs, majors upbeat on near-term oil demand


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Mideast NOCs, majors upbeat on near-term oil demand

Vienna, 9 July (Argus) — Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.2mn-1.3mn b/d for the rest of 2025, driven by developing economies, strong US gasoline use and China's petrochemicals sector, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said at the Opec seminar in Vienna today. Nasser said demand would continue to rise as per capita oil use in developing countries remains well below levels in Europe and the US. His outlook was echoed by other state-owned oil companies and international majors, who pointed to tight physical markets and resilient buying interest in Asia. The chief executive of Kuwait's KPC, Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, said demand "remains healthy" despite macroeconomic headwinds. He said customers in China, Japan and South Korea had recently asked KPC not to cut crude allocations and to send additional barrels if available. "That's an indication that this is a balanced market," Al-Sabah said. He added that demand is likely to remain strong even after the seasonal summer uptick fades in the northern hemisphere. Al-Sabah also noted that the market responded positively to the most recent Opec+ decision to accelerate planned output increases in August . "I just don't see the additional non-Opec supply coming in at a rate that would exceed the demand numbers that we're talking about," he said. BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss said he expects oil demand growth of around 1pc this year. "Physically, markets are tight right now — whether that's oil, gasoline, jet or diesel. They're all quite tight with low storage levels, and China is injecting an awful lot into storage," he said. Shell chief executive Wael Sawan said short-term fundamentals are tight, with "a healthy balance between supply and demand". TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne was more cautious, pointing to structurally lower oil demand growth in China. He said Chinese demand, which previously grew by 700,000-800,000 b/d annually, is now rising by just over 300,000 b/d a year. He added that he hopes India and other emerging markets will offset the slowdown. Still, Pouyanne said global oil demand continues to grow and that supply must keep pace. By Aydin Calik, Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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