European light and middle distillate markets opened higher today after US tariffs against China, Mexico and Canada were announced over the weekend, but market participants reacted cautiously to the move.
US president Donald Trump on 1 February slapped tariffs of 10pc on Canadian energy imports, which account for a significant share of foreign crude and products supply into the US. The tariff rate against Canada stood in contrast to the 25pc tariff applied to Mexico, which may be designed to mitigate the inflationary effect of costlier Canadian crude and products imports in the US market.
Eurobob non-oxy gasoline barges were trading at a volume-weighted average of $728/t at 13:40 GMT, up from $715/t since the 31 January close, while underlying Ice February gasoil futures — the futures value against which diesel and jet cargoes are traded — was higher at $727/t, up from $711.25/t. Brent crude values were just 14¢/bl higher, as product cracks firmed by 19.1pc and 8.6pc to $10.37/bl and $20.43/bl against Brent futures for non-oxy barges and Ice gasoil futures, respectively.
Any Canadian product sales into the US would see tariffs passed onto the buyer, according to one source with knowledge of the matter, adding they were waiting to see how Canada otherwise responds to the US tariffs. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America, another source close to the matter told Argus last week.
This ‘wait-and-see' approach was echoed by one Mideast Gulf gasoline trader, while two European analysts said the desired policy outcome of rebalancing trade between the US and Canada was not straightforward, and may make Canadian products imports more affordable as the Canadian dollar depreciates.
The US may be better prepared for a gasoline supply shock as a result of seasonal stockpiling, one analyst said, but the US Atlantic Coast has a more significant gasoline supply shortage than Canada if gasoline output were to remain in the domestic market north of the border, another said.
In a sign of concerns over US Atlantic Coast diesel tightness, the Sebarok Spirit LR2 appeared to have been booked to deliver a mixed cargo of 10ppm diesel and gasoline from the Port of Antwerp to New York by 15 February, according to Kpler tracking data. These type of voyages "never happen", one analyst said, with Europe structurally short of diesel and the ARA hub a reliable diesel buyer of last resort. The vessel was still anchored at the Port of Antwerp today.
In the event of lower Canadian crude deliveries to US refineries, US product cracks could strengthen, one analyst said, but added a halt in supplies of Western Canadian Select (WCS) to US refineries was unlikely. A strengthening in product cracks could exacerbate a seasonal improvement in Rbob gasoline premiums ahead of the summer driving season, the source said, while transatlantic diesel arbitrage economics could remain shut firmly for longer — closing off a key supplier from the European diesel market.
It was not immediately clear how product flows from Canada to the US were otherwise impacted today, as most product exports into the US are made via pipeline. No new gasoline or diesel cargoes were recorded loading at Canadian ports signalling US delivery by Kpler today.
Two vessels carrying clean products from Valero's 265,000 b/d Jean Gaulin refinery, Quebec, were sitting offshore northeast US signalling to discharge volume at New Haven, Connecticut on 5-6 February.
