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US manufacturing expands in Jan after 26 months: ISM

  • Market: Coal, Metals, Natural gas
  • 03/02/25

US manufacturing activity expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction, according to the Institute for Supply Management's latest factory survey.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) registered 50.9 in January, up from 49.2 in December. The new orders index rose to 55.1 last month from 52.1 in December, marking a third month of expansion. Readings above 50 signal expansion while readings under that point to contraction.

Production rose to 52.5 last month from 49.9 the prior month. Employment rose to 50.3 from 45.4.

"Demand clearly improved, while output expanded and inputs remained accommodative," ISM said. "Demand and production improved; and employment expanded."

US factory activity expanded robustly in the first two years after Covid-19 hit, then contracted for the subsequent two years, even as growth in services activity, the largest part of the economy, maintained the overall economy in expansion territory.

The new export orders index rose by 2.4 points to 52.4 and the imports index rose by 1.4 points to 51.1.

The prices index rose to 54.9 from 52.5, with aluminum, freight rates, natural gas, and scrap among gainers.

"Prices growth was moderate, indicating that further growth will put additional pressure on prices," ISM said.

The inventories index fell by 2.5 to 45.9, signaling contracting inventories. Backlog of orders fell by one point to 44.9, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 28th consecutive month after 27 months of expansion.

Supplier deliveries rose by 0.8 to 50.9, suggesting marginally slower deliveries.

By Bob Willis


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13/02/25

DeepSeek AI integration to boost long-term metal demand

DeepSeek AI integration to boost long-term metal demand

Beijing, 13 February (Argus) — Increasing integration of DeepSeek's artificial intelligence (AI) models in China is likely to boost long-term demand for metals used in AI infrastructures and products, according to market participants. China's three largest telecommunications companies — China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom — have integrated DeepSeek's open source models, and provided exclusive computing power solutions and supporting environments for the DeepSeek-R1 model to help release the performance of the model, the country's industry and information technology ministry said on 9 February. Other major Chinese technology firms including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent have also announced integration of DeepSeek's models into their cloud platforms. This is likely to accelerate these companies' development of intelligent applications. The country's largest electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD, which sold around 4.2mn EVs last year in China, on 11 February announced plans to integrate software from DeepSeek into 21 of its EV models, enabling the automaker to offer advanced autonomous driving features on all of its 18 models priced above 100,000 yuan ($13,686). DeepSeek's models offer performance for a low price, with its training cost reportedly significantly lower than other large language models. It provides responses comparable to other contemporary large language models, such as OpenAI's GPT-4o. The roll-out of DeepSeek's models is expected to provide low-cost, high-efficiency intelligent services for small and medium-sized companies and individual users, reduce the threshold for the use of AI technology, and accelerate the inclusion of AI technology. Metals demand This development is also likely to boost long-term demand for metals, particularly copper, aluminum, tungsten, molybdenum, gallium, germanium, battery metals and rare earths. AI operations rely on a large number of servers and data centres, with copper widely used in power distribution, grounding and interconnection of the data centres. Global copper demand from data centres is projected to exceed 1mn t by 2026, according to industry estimates. Rapid development of the AI industry is also boosting copper demand in grid systems. Aluminum is used in some cooling and structural components of data centres. Demand for indium phosphide (inP) photonic integrated circuit (PiC) technology from the data centre industry is also growing rapidly, driven by the heavy computing workloads required to support AI. AI growth and data centre demand is also expected to increase the use of compound semiconductor materials including gallium nitride and gallium arsenide. Molybdenum and tungsten can be used to manufacture high-temperature components and electrode materials used in some high-end AI hardware equipment. Rare earth metals also have key applications in AI-related magnetic and optical materials. A faster development of AI products has the potential to increase demand for neodymium iron and boron (NdFeB) material used in special micro-motors and servo motors, rare earth polishing powder used in wafer devices and rare earth magnets used in audio products. Some main domestic smartphone manufacturers such as Huawei, Honor and Oppo have also integrated DeepSeek's services into their products. This is likely to accelerate the development and consumer adoption of AI smartphones. Earlier industry estimates showed that shipments of AI smartphones would rise to 550mn units globally in 2027, making up more than 40pc of total phone shipments. About 30pc of cobalt and 7pc of global lithium production is consumed in the consumer electronics industry. Challenges DeepSeek's development is facing challenges outside China. The DeepSeek application was removed from Italy's app store in January owing to alleged data security concerns. Australia has banned the use of DeepSeek's technology on all government devices. Japanese companies such as Toyota, Mitsubishi and SoftBank have banned the use of DeepSeek for "information security issues". Texas in February became the first US state to ban the use of DeepSeek on government equipment. But the western countries' anxiety about DeepSeek may spur the development of their own AI industries. US president Donald Trump said that DeepSeek was a "wake-up call" for the US technology industry. South Korea's acting president Choi Sang-moo views DeepSeek as a "new impact", planning to pour 34 trillion won ($23.5bn) into the development of the AI and semiconductor industries. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi

London, 12 February (Argus) — Italy is exploring the idea of lower EU gas storage targets, but no decisions have yet been made, the energy chief at Italy's environment and energy security ministry told Argus . A decision on whether to scrap, change or renew the EU rules implemented in 2022 that required a 90pc EU stockfill on 1 November last year and require the same this coming November could be taken in the coming weeks, energy department head Federico Boschi said. "The [existing] stockfill obligations end on 31 December 2025 and as such, there is space for either a halt, a change or an extension," Boschi said, without specifying whether Italy might advocate for a lower target on 1 November 2025 or beyond, or both. Asked whether Italy was seeking a capacity target for gas storage injections, Boschi said the government had also not yet taken a position. "As far as I know, we have no specific target in mind," he said. Filling storage capacity would benefit energy security, but it could also affect prices and favour speculation by increasing demand when it might otherwise be low, Boschi said. The EU stockfill regulations aim to ensure adequate winter gas reserves. But European summer-winter gas price spreads remain inverted out several years, providing no incentive to book storage capacity during that time. PSV summer 2025 prices closed €4.81/MWh above the winter 2025-26 contract on Tuesday. Seasonal contracts on Argus Italian curve do not extend beyond that, but EU benchmark Dutch TTF summer-winter spreads for storage years 2026-27 and 2027-28 closed at +€2.805/MWh and +€0.20/MWh, respectively, on Tuesday. Italy — the EU member with the second-largest storage capacity after Germany — has been looking at a raft of options to curb energy prices for businesses and households, which are among the highest in Europe. The Italian government approved legislation last week to bring forward storage auctions for the 2025-26 year to allow the market to book capacity if price spreads become favourable in February-March. Italian storage operator Stogit plans to offer 2.5bn m³ of capacity starting from 1 April across products lasting 1-5 years on 17 February-19 March. Compatriot storage operator Edison Stoccaggio plans to offer around 900mn m³ of 2025-26 capacity, but has yet to announce auction dates. In any event, the EU's Gas Co-ordination Group is scheduled to meet on Thursday and may discuss gas storage targets. By Stephen Jewkes and Jeff Kuntz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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China’s CNGR to end investment in nickel JV with Posco


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

China’s CNGR to end investment in nickel JV with Posco

Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — Major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material (CAM) precursor manufacturer CNGR will terminate investment in a nickel refinery joint venture with South Korean multi-sector company Posco Holdings, it announced today. The joint venture, Posco CNGR Nickel Solution, will be liquidated after the termination. The decision is part of efforts to reduce investment risks and protect investors' interests in the face of a weak electric vehicle (EV) market. A slowdown in global EV demand has led to slower growth in battery installations in 2024 compared with a year earlier, South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research reported. CNGR and Posco announced plans in June 2023 to build a production facility for nickel and lithium-ion battery precursors in Pohang, South Korea. The plant was intended to have a design capacity of 50,000 t/yr metal equivalent for nickel sulphate and 110,000 t/yr for lithium-ion battery precursors, which was expected to meet demand from 1.2mn units of EVs. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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