Most countries and major emitters that are party to the Paris Agreement will fail to meet a 10 February deadline for sharing new climate plans. Climate policy observers have stressed that higher ambitions beat timeliness when it comes to new 2035 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cut targets, but challenges abound ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil.
Only 10 countries, including G20 members Brazil and the UK, have submitted new climate plans — or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — so far.
Around 200 countries and jurisdictions such as the EU have signed the Paris agreement. They need to submit their 2035 targets to the UN climate body UNFCCC by February as part of the so-called ratchet mechanism, which requires them to review and revise plans every five years.
"There have not been any signals that any major emitters will submit their NDCs before the deadline, but we may see a handful of smaller emitters trickling in," think-tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy policy advisor Natalie Jones said.
Non-profit the World Resources Institute (WRI) associate Jamal Srouji expects around 20 countries to submit by the deadline. But most climate plans should come in the second half of this year, with the UN general assembly in September emerging as a new potential milestone followed by Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil.
Countries missing their NDC deadline is not new. They were slow to submit plans in the previous 2020-21 round — although they were grappling with a pandemic — and after Cop 26, when it came to strengthening 2030 targets. Jones described the UNFCCC's non-enforceable February deadline as "arbitrary".
"It is much more important to have good quality plans than NDCs handed in on a forced deadline, although of course there is no guarantee that the plans that will come later will be necessarily better," Jones said. Srouji concurred: "Higher ambitions from major countries are far more critical because we know that we are off track for meeting the Paris goals".
US exit
The US submitted its new NDC in December under then president Joe Biden, knowing that the new president Donald Trump would pull out of the Paris accord again. This will take effect on 27 January next year.
It was important for the US to submit this NDC, Srouji said, as it will serve as "a guiding post" for what the country could achieve, at sub-national levels in particular. But the US' Paris exit could dampen momentum on global NDCs, with some fearing a spillover effect.
Indonesia, which earlier signalled it would submit by February, is unlikely to do so now, after the country's climate envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo expressed discontent. "If America does not want to comply with international agreements, why should Indonesia comply?" he asked. Argentina pulled its delegation from Cop 29 last year and may consider leaving the Paris agreement.
Among other major emitters, Canada set a new 2035 climate goal in December. The country was planning to submit its new plan by February, but the resignation of prime minister Justin Trudeau and a new election due this year could put the country's climate ambitions at risk.
All eyes will of course be on China, the world's largest emitter, and whether it pledges stronger targets. The country is unlikely to submit its new plan by the deadline, according to observers.
Expectations are high, but "targets will likely fall short of achieving the 1.5°C goal, leaving much work to be done to accelerate emissions reduction," think tank Asia Society Policy Institute director Li Shuo said.
China signalled at Cop 29 that its NDC will be "economy-wide" and "cover all greenhouse gases", while continuing to strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, without providing further details.
"There is a big question mark, in the absence of US leadership, if will we see China along with the EU engaging and stepping up, or if will we see the country retreating like the US," IISD's Jones said.
EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, who said the bloc's NDC will come in time for Cop 30, said that Europeans will need to show more leadership. But the EU's 2035 goal will be derived from its 2040 target and German MEP Peter Liese pointed to a deadlock in discussions. The European Commission has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 90pc by 2040, from 1990 levels, which Poland said is "very difficult to accept".
Challenges
Cop 30 host Brazil, along with the UAE Cop 29 presidency, stuck to their promise of being early movers by submitting updated goals last year, although these were met with mixed reactions. Cop 29 host Azerbaijan did not submit a new NDC in Baku, with its president signalling challenges for some developing countries in establishing new plans.
Some southeast Asian countries have highlighted challenges in providing new targets, such as the lack of common models between sectors, financing and economic growth. Chile said that it will submit an emissions reduction plan by the middle of this year, as a draft document is under consultation.
There are many reasons for delays. "The UNFCCC timeline is not necessarily aligned with national decision-making processes and many developing countries face resource and capacity constraints," Srouji said, adding that parties are also expected to submit other documents such as adaptation plans and long term climate strategies.
The IEA can provide support on national energy transition plans. The energy watchdog has recently supported Uganda and Vietnam on transition plans, and is in the early stages of transition advisory work with Colombia and Tanzania, it said.
Colombia indicated that it will submit its NDC by June as the country seeks to address the "divisive issue" of fossil fuels, on which its economy is dependent.
Mixed bag
The climate plans submitted so far accounted for around 16pc of global emissions as of 5 February, including commitments from the UK and Brazil, according to WRI. IISD's Jones described the current NDCs as a "mixed bag", in terms of targets and the level of details, saying that the UK emerged as a leader with commitments on oil and gas licensing, while New Zealand has put forward a weak target and no plans.
The UK's plan sets out the government's manifesto pledge to phase out sales of new cars "relying solely on internal combustion engines" by 2030, and notes that it will consult on issuing no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields.
But none of the countries which posted new NDCs so far — apart from St Lucia — seem to have raised their 2030 targets, despite agreeing to "revisit and strengthen" them in the Cop 28's global stocktake (GST). How countries will respond to elements of GST — which also resulted in all parties agreeing to "transition away" from fossil fuels — will be a key issue to watch, especially after they failed to build on their commitments at Cop 29 in Baku.
"While NDCs may show progress on the commitments of the Paris agreement and the commitments of a lot of countries on climate action, it is not clear what they will deliver in terms of the ability to keep 1.5°C in reach", Srouji said. "This is how Cop 30 comes into play, to make sure countries respond adequately and keep on track, he said.
| Countries GHG 2035 reduction targets | ||
| Countries | Headline 2035 target | Baseline |
| UAE | Cutting GHG emissions by 47pc by 2035 | 2019 |
| Brazil | Cutting GHG emissions by 59-67pc by 2035 | 2005 |
| US | Cutting GHG emissions by 61-66pc by 2035 | 2005 |
| Uruguay | Cutting GHG emissions by 30pc by 2035 | 2020-22 |
| Switzerland | Cutting GHGemissions by 65pc by 2035 | 1990 |
| UK | Cutting GHG emissions by 81pc by 2035 | 1990 |
| New Zealand | Cutting GHG emissions by 51-55pc by 2035 | 2005 |
| Andorra | Cutting GHG emissions by 63pc by 2035 | 2005 |
| Ecuador | Cutting GHG emissions by 7pc by 2035 | 2010 |
| St Lucia | Cutting GHG emissions by 22pc in energy sector by 2035* | 2010 |
| Canada** | Cutting GHG emissionsby 45-50pc by 2035 | 2005 |
| Source countries' NDCs | ||
| *conditional target | ||
| **Canada only submitted its headline target, not its NDC | ||
