German heating oil sales in February are up from the same month last year, mainly driven by colder weather. Diesel demand, on the other hand, is down.
Heating oil volumes submitted to Argus in the week ending 14 February held steady compared with the week prior. But volumes in the first half of February have been around 70pc higher than in the same period in 2024, and many buyers' tank levels are very low.
Temperatures in most regions of Germany in February were 1.1-2.1°C lower than the 1991-2020 average, according to weather information website Wetterkontor.
Average consumer stock levels were just over 51pc on 12 February, according to Argus MDX. This is not unusually low for the time of year, but is 1.2 percentage points below the same day in 2024.
Traded diesel volumes in February to date are around 15pc lower than in the first half of February 2024. Traders attribute this to worsening economic conditions and an increase in bankruptcies.
The production index for the manufacturing sector in December was at its lowest since May 2020. Increasing use of alternative fuels such as HVO100 could also be linked declining diesel demand, at least regionally, although only to a small extent. HVO100 sales in Germany are gradually increasing, and Argus estimates that around 15,000m³ (around 3,150 b/d) are sold per month.
Meanwhile, 65,000 b/d of diesel arrived in northern German ports in February. This is an increase of around 68pc compared with January. Of the arrivals this month, 40pc came from India. These are the first cargo deliveries from the Jamnagar refinery in India to northern Germany since November 2024.
