Mexico will deliver a composed and measured response if the US imposes tariffs on its imports as threatened tonight, although there has been no definitive word on what will happen, President Claudia Sheinbaum said.
US president Donald Trump postponed an early February deadline to impose 25pc tariffs on all Mexican and most Canadian goods by a month to allow more time for negotiations over what he said were concerns over the flow of drugs and immigrants into the US. This followed Sheinbaum pledge to send another 10,000 national guard troops to the border to curtail drug trafficking, with a specific focus on fentanyl.
Mexico has continued talks with the US this past month to demonstrate results of its efforts. But the Mexican government does not yet know if this has been sufficient to convince Trump to further pause tariffs, Sheinbaum said this morning.
"Whatever the decision is, we will have a plan to respond," Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference. Mexico has a plan that includes retaliatory tariffs as an option, Sheinbaum said last month.
US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said on a broadcast interview Sunday that the US will likely implement the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but that Trump could lower the tariffs below 25pc. Lutnick described the situation as "fluid", leaving open the possibilities for last-minute negotiations.
Sheinbaum could still have a call with Trump before the deadline expires, much like last month, when the tariffs were postponed following talks between the presidents, Sheinbaum said last week. Sheinbaum said such a call could come today.
Tariffs would likely curtail energy trade between the US and Mexico. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe.
Mexico also imports much of its road fuels and LPG from the US. But hitting these goods with retaliatory tariffs would be costly for Mexico and may be unlikely, according to market sources.
