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Brazil's GDP growth accelerates to 3.4pc in 2024

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Crude oil, Electricity, Metals, Natural gas
  • 07/03/25

Brazil's economic growth accelerated to an annual 3.4pc last year, the fastest growth since 2021, as gains in the services and industry sectors offset contractions in the agriculture sector, according to government statistics agency IBGE.

Growth accelerated from 3.2pc in 2023 and 3pc the prior year. Growth was at 4.8pc in 2021 as the economy recovered from the Covid-19 induced contraction of 3.3pc in 2020.

Agriculture contracted by 3.2pc in 2024 after a 15.1pc gain the year prior. The sector's weak performance came as Brazil faced extreme climate events last year that damaged crops, IBGE said.

Corn and soybean output fell by 4.6pc and 12.5pc, respectively, according to IBGE.

The industrial sector grew by 3.3pc last year after a 1.6pc gain in 2023. Manufacturing industries rose by 3.8pc, driven by a higher output of vehicles, transport equipment, machinery and electric equipment, according to IBGE.

Electricity and gas, water and sewage management increased by 3.6pc in 2024 but still decelerated from a 6.5pc gain a year earlier. Higher temperatures throughout 2024 drove the increase, IBGE said. On the other hand, the climate was unfavorable for power generation.

The oil, natural gas and mining industry grew by 0.5pc in 2024 from a year earlier.

Gross fixed capital formation — which measures how much companies increased their capital goods — rose by 7.3pc from a 3pc contraction in 2023, led by higher domestic output and capital goods imports.

Exports rose by 2.9pc, while imports rose by 14.7pc last year. Investment grew by 17pc.

Household consumption increased by 4.8pc from a year prior, driven by a 6.6pc unemployment rate — the lowest registered since IBGE started its historic record in 2012 — federal social aid programs and increased lending.

Government spending rose by 1.9pc in 2024 from a year earlier.

Quarterly GDP

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to an annual 3.6pc in the fourth quarter from 4pc in the third quarter, with several sectors contracting, according to IBGE.

Agriculture contracted by an annual 1.5pc in the fourth quarter, with 2.9pc and 0.9pc contractions in the wheat and sugarcane crops, respectively, IBGE said.

But the industrial sector grew by an annual 2.5pc in the quarter. Manufacturing posted 5.3pc growth, led by the steel sector and higher output of machinery, equipment, vehicles and chemicals. The services sector grew by 3.4pc.

The oil, natural gas and mining industry contracted by 3.6pc from a year earlier thanks to a decrease in oil, gas and iron output, IBGE said.

Electricity and gas, water, and sewage management fell by an annual 3.5pc, on lower power consumption as power rates became more expensive amid a drought that struck the country in mid-2024.

Household consumption grew by an annual 3.7pc, while government spending grew by 1.2pc in the fourth quarter.

Gross fixed capital formation increased by an annual 9.4pc in the fourth quarter, according to IBGE.

Exports fell by 0.7pc, while imports, which subtract from growth, rose by 16pc.

By Maria Frazatto


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19/03/25

US tariffs to slash Brazil's steel exports, output

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Sao Paulo, 19 March (Argus) — Brazil's steel exports and production could fall by 11pc and 2pc, respectively, in 2025 because of recently imposed 25pc US tariffs on all imported steel, according to national economic research institute Ipea. The decline in steel output resulting from the US import tariff is estimated at 700,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr, leading to an export loss of 1.6mn t, according to Ipea. Brazil was the US' top semi-finished steel supplier in 2024, shipping 3.4mn t of slabs there, which accounted for nearly 80pc of its total slab exports last year , according to customs data. The US tariffs will have a negligible impact on Brazil's overall exports and GDP, according to Ipea's study. The Chinese threat But Brazilian steelmakers are more concerned about Chinese imports than US tariffs. Chinese steel dumping causes greater harm to the industry and the economy than US tariffs, according to Brazilian steelmaker CSN's executive director Luis Fernando Barbosa Martinez. Brazil levied a 25pc import tariff on 11 steel products in June 2024 following the domestic steelmakers' push for safeguard measures. The move proved ineffective as imports hit record highs in 2024, nearly 70pc of which shipped from China . The government's import methodology, criticized for setting quotas by adding 30pc to the average steel imports from 2020-2022 for 11 products, is set to expire in two months. Importers and steelmakers are on opposite sides of the issue, with the former advocating against and the latter asking for more safeguards. Political implications Political dynamics are expected to influence steel prices just as much as the balance between supply and demand. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — whose popularity has hit its lowest point across his three terms, just one year ahead of the 2026 elections — and vice-president Geraldo Alckmin — who also serves as trade minister — have been meeting with key stakeholders, including automakers, steelmakers and household appliance manufacturers, for the past two weeks. Automaker Stellantis recently announced R30bn ($530mn) in investments, while steelmakers pledged R100bn ($17bn) last year, aligned with the imposition of tariff quotas. Both sectors highlight their potential to create jobs. Steel industry chamber Instituto Aço Brasil warned of job losses and idled furnaces unless further measures are taken to weaken Chinese imports' flow. The steel industry supports 72,700 direct and 49,000 indirect jobs, according to the latest data from Instituto Aço Brasil. And the automotive sector currently accounts for 108,000 jobs, national association of motor vehicle manufacturers Anfavea said. Importers argued that additional tariffs may drive inflation and higher interest rates, as well as slash demand and harm the economy as a whole. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro


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19/03/25

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