News
12/03/26
Global refinery runs to drop 4.3mn b/d in March: IEA
London, 12 March (Argus) — The US-Iran war and its impacts on oil products'
infrastructure and shipping logistics will shear 4.3mn b/d off global throughput
on the month and around 3mn b/d year on year in March, according to the IEA's
latest Oil Market Report (OMR) , with Mideast Gulf refineries bearing the brunt
of these run cuts. Global run rates will drop to 79.7mn b/d this month, down
from 84mn b/d in February and 82.4mn b/d in March 2025, the IEA said today.
Around three-quarters of these cuts are taking place in the Middle East, where
4mn b/d of crude refining capacity is already shut or at risk of closure. The
organisation expects run rates at Mideast Gulf refineries to bounce back to 10mn
b/d by May, exceeding pre-Iran war February throughput rates of 9.8mn b/d.
Middle Eastern refinery units are running at reduced run rates and can be
returned to full operations once the sites can recommence export loadings, the
IEA said. Global runs will not return to February levels until June, when they
are forecast to hit 85.1mn b/d. "Should the war and disruptions to trade flows
drag on, the impact on refinery activity will extend beyond the disruptions we
have assumed in [the report], which are limited to March and April," the IEA
said. Feedstock, gas and power supply cuts to Mideast Gulf refineries will
contribute to regional run cuts this month. The strait of Hormuz closure is also
cutting cargo loadings, in turn forcing output down because of the limited
storage capacity in the region. The IEA estimated that the Mideast Gulf
export-oriented refineries hold capacity of two weeks of production "at best".
Downstream infrastructure targeted amid the conflict is also forcing through
lower regional crude throughputs. Saudi Arabia's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura,
Bahrain's 405,000 b/d Sitra, and the UAE's 817,000 b/d Ruwais refineries have
been attacked by Iran, leading to part or full shutdowns, according to the IEA.
The collapse in refinery runs this month will require "significant product
draws" to meet a market balance, the IEA said. Global oil demand is only set to
drop by 60,000 b/d this month, it added. East of Suez refiners are most exposed
to the Iran war, which received 90pc of the 15mn b/d of crude and condensates
exported via Hormuz last year, according to the IEA. OECD Asia Oceania will see
crude runs cut by around 500,000 b/d on the month to 5.4mn b/d in March, while
non-OECD Other Asian countries — excluding China — will cut rates by 430,000 b/d
to 10.4mn b/d. Asia imports more than 60pc of its total crude requirements from
the Middle East, according to the IEA. By contrast, OECD European run rates are
set to "hold up well" as refiners pursue increasing oil product margins
supported by the conflict. Throughput rates in Europe will stand at 11mn b/d in
March, down from 11.3mn b/d in February as seasonal refinery maintenance
programs are underway. Europe imported 1.3mn b/d of Middle Eastern crude last
year, according to the IEA. The IEA forecasts 2026 run rates to now be flat on
the year at 83.8mn b/d, revised down by 800,000 b/d from February's OMR. By
George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at
feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights
reserved.
