Ontario adds fee for electricity exports to US: Update

Market: Electricity
10/03/25

Updates with comments from US utilities

Ontario is imposing a 25pc tariff on electricity exports to the US starting today, carrying through on its threatened retaliation for a trade war started by US president Donald Trump.

"We will apply maximum pressure to maximize our leverage, that's why today we're moving forward with a 25pc surcharge on electricity exports for the 1.5mn American homes and business that Ontario powers," Ontario premier Doug Ford said today in Toronto.

Ontario was the largest exporter of electricity to the US in 2023, sending 15.2 TWh to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. The neighbouring province of Quebec, which exported 13.4 TWh the same year to New York and New England, has said it is also considering its options amid the trade war.

Ford said he feels "terrible" because average consumers will pay when it is really Trump who is responsible. The surcharge will cost the US up to $400,000/d, amounting to an increase of $100 for consumers each month, according to Ford.

"I will not hesitate to increase this charge," said Ford. "If necessary, if the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely."

Trump on 4 March imposed a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. But executive orders that he signed on 6 March exempted North American trade covered by the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement from new tariffs after 12:01am eastern time on 7 March.

Trump has said he is delaying the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until 2 April, but his executive orders make no mention of that restart date.

Minnesota Power, a subsidiary of Allete, imports "a small portion" of its electricity from Ontario but expects the impact to be "negligible", the utility said. Minnesota Power receives 11pc of its of its energy supply from Manitoba Hydro, but Manitoba has not followed Ontario's lead and imposed a surcharge.

Michigan's largest utility, Consumers Energy — which serves 6.8mn of the state's 10mn residents — does not purchase power from Ontario.

Xcel Energy, which serves customers in Minnesota and Michigan, also said it did not buy power from Ontario.

By Brett Holmes and Anna Harmon

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19/03/25

Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro

London, 19 March (Argus) — Higher Swedish wind output is a structural supply shift that could support Norwegian hydro stocks over the long term, as recent record hydro reserves come despite below-average rainfall between October 2024 and February 2025. Combined Nordic hydropower reserves have held a surplus to the 10-year maximum for eight of the first 10 weeks of 2025, peaking at seven percentage points in week 10, as Norwegian hydro reserves unexpectedly increased from a week earlier. Reserves across Finland, Norway and Sweden closed week 10 at 55.6pc of capacity, seven percentage points above any other week in the previous 10 years and 5.1 percentage points higher than in 2008, the next highest year. Hydro production in Norway fell on the year in 2024, dropping to an average of 12.1GW, down from 12.2GW in 2023 and around 7pc below the five-year average of 12.9pc. Tighter hydro conditions in the first half of the year weighed on generation. Still, in the final six months of 2024, hydro reservoir output also fell on the year, dropping by 4pc to an average of 11.4GW, down from 11.9GW. That is despite combined Nordic reserves last year holding an average stock surplus of 5.2 percentage points to 2023 between weeks 34 and 52. At the same time, Swedish wind output increased to an average of 4.6GW last year, up by 18pc on the year from 3.9GW a year earlier and ending last year around 34pc higher than the five-year average. Higher wind generation weighs significantly on regional day-ahead prices and discourages hydro production by lowering the spot below the perceived water value of stored hydropower capacity. Rising wind capacity and its effect on the power mix is particularly notable during the first and fourth winter quarters, with generally the highest prices, with Swedish wind output averaging 5.8GW last year between January and March and October and December, up by 22pc from the equivalent periods in 2022. That displacement represents a structural supply shift in the Nordic power market that can support hydro reserves beyond rain and temperature outlook patterns going forward and during below-average precipitation periods, as the call for hydro production falls in hours when wind output is highest that — before significant wind capacity additions in Sweden — were routine output hours. Furthermore, higher run-of-river generation last year, up by 8pc in 2024 compared with a year earlier to an average of 3.4GW, captures the higher stock feed-in and water volumes that supported Nordic reservoirs in 2024 leading into 2025 and emphasises that, like wind output, run-of-river, which is generally not dispatchable undermines the regional spot price and reduces the call for reservoir hydro output. Norwegian hydro production last week peaked at 19.7GW on 13 March and averaged 17.9GW between 10 and 16 March, exceeding the monthly average of 15.9GW in March so far. Higher Norwegian hydro output was directly correlated with lower Swedish wind generation on those days, with Swedish average daily wind generation falling to 1.1GW and 1.5GW on 12 March and 13 March, respectively, while Norwegian hydro output topped 19GW on both days. By 15 and 16 March, Norwegian hydro production fell back to 16.6GW and 14.5GW, as Swedish wind generation rose to 7.6GW and 8.2GW. Unseasonably high reserves have consistently weighed on summer delivery power contracts and supported a substantial €59.20/MWh discount for Nordic June to the German equivalent on 18 March and an average discount of €59.13/MWh between 3 and 18 March. The Nordic third quarter last closed at a €66.10/MWh discount to the German equivalent and has averaged €67.23/MWh below Germany's front quarter over the previous 30 days. Reserves ended last month at 57.8pc of total capacity, some 3.4 percentage points above the 10-year maximum and in Norway, reserves were just 0.5 percentage points below the long-term national maximum, with stocks since switching to a 2.8 percentage point surplus to the maximum in week 10 and a 2.4 percentage point surplus in week 11. This was despite precipitation between October and February being up on the year, it remained below the region's seasonal norm by nearly 20.6mm, with rainfall in Bergen over the same period below the average in four of the past five years. Precipitation over the five months last exceeded the seasonal norm in 2022, totalling 1,804.8mm and registering a 422.9mm surplus to the average. But at February's close, hydro reserves in 2022 were 17.2 percentage points below the equivalent week in 2025, underscoring increased Swedish wind output's impact over the 2024-25 season. By Daniel Craig Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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19/03/25

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19/03/25

UK wealth fund to prioritise ‘clean energy’ investment

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EU mulls competitive metals decarbonisation

19/03/25

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19/03/25

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Groups to sue Alliant over Iowa coal ash discharge

18/03/25

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18/03/25

Groups to sue Alliant over Iowa coal ash discharge

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Norway cold on EU VAT power sales harmony

17/03/25

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17/03/25

Norway cold on EU VAT power sales harmony

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