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Australia’s cattle herd to remain at 30mn head in 2025

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 13/03/25

Australia's cattle herd is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous year in June, while record beef production is forecast in the 2025 calendar year, according to Meat and Livestock Australia projections.

The cattle herd is expected to shrink slightly to 30.1mn head in June 2025 from 30.6mn head in June 2024, partly because of high slaughter rates and cattle turn off — finished cattle sent for processing or export — in southern states. MLA estimates the national herd will continue to drop from its June 2023 size, and further declines are expected in the coming years as turn off increases to manage carrying capacity, which is the stock level that can be supported by pastures over time. The June 2027 herd is pegged at 28.8mn head, 6pc below June 2023.

Beef production is set to reach a new record high of 2.6mn t carcass weight equivalent (cwe) in the 2025 calendar year, breaking the previous record in 2024, and supported by high slaughter rates. Cattle slaughter is forecast to rise by 3pc on the year to 8.5mn head in 2025.

Live exports are forecast to rise to 803,000 head in 2025, as the late onset of the northern wet season supported cattle supply.

Dryer seasonal conditions in southern states are expected to support cattle turn off into June. A dry outlook for March-May 2025 could lift the number of cattle sent to live export, feedlots, or for processing in central Queensland, despite a mostly favourable 2024-25 northern wet season so far.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast the chance of rainfall exceeding the median rainfall in March-May to be less than half for most of central and northern Queensland, although more recent modelling is slightly more favourable. Further, much of Queensland's grazing areas received at least 25mm in the week to 12 March, according to BoM data.

By Edward Dunlop

Australia Cattle Industry forecasts
unit20252024y-o-y ±y-o-y %
Herd Size (30 June)000 head30,14530,561-416-1
Cattle slaughter000 head8,5358,3042313
Beef production'000t cwt2,6242,571532
Live exports000 head803747567
Beef exports'000t cwe2,0351,972633
- MLA
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19/12/25

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 soybean planting advanced to 94.1pc of the expected area in the week ended 13 December, according to national supply company Conab. Planting advanced by 3.8 percentage points from the week prior. The 2024-25 sowing was 96.8pc complete at this time in 2024. The five-year average for the period is 90.6pc. Sowing activities have finished in central-western Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, and southern Parana states. Summer corn Planting for the 2025-26 first corn crop reached 77.5pc of Brazil's expected area, up by 6.2 percentage points on the week, according to Conab. That is slightly ahead of the 75pc planted at this time last year for the 2024-25 cycle. This season's progress is also ahead of the 70.3pc five-year average for the period. Parana and Sao Paulo have already finished planting. Cotton Planting activities for the 2025-26 cotton crop reached 10.1pc completion in the week ended 13 December, according to Conab. Activities advanced by 4.8 percentage points from the previous week. Northeastern Maranhao is the only state where activities have not started. Sowing nationwide is slightly above the five-year average for the period of 5.8pc, but below the 12.2pc pace in the same week last season. Wheat The 2025 wheat harvest advanced by 1.7 percentage points to 99.7pc of the area sowed nationwide in the week ended 13 December. The 2024 crop was 100pc harvested at this time a year ago. This season's progress is slightly ahead of the 98.7pc five-year average for the week. By Bruno Castro Planting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Soybean crop, 2025-26 Tocantins 98.0 93.0 99.0 89.8 Maranhao 42.0 38.0 59.0 51.4 Piaui 88.0 78.0 94.0 76.2 Bahia 97.0 94.0 97.0 87.2 Mato Grosso 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 98.8 Goias 97.0 92.0 99.3 92.4 Minas Gerais 100.0 98.2 100.0 94.6 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.8 Parana 100.0 97.0 100.0 98.0 Santa Catarina 86.0 79.0 91.0 79.9 Rio Grande do Sul 81.0 69.0 91.0 70.6 Total 94.1 90.3 96.8 90.6 Summer corn crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 6.0 4.0 5.0 5.6 Piaui 8.0 4.0 10.0 5.2 Bahia 86.0 71.0 63.0 58.0 Goias 80.0 70.0 99.0 64.4 Minas Gerais 97.0 85.2 100.0 89.8 Sao Paulo 100.0 90.0 100.0 92.2 Parana 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 99.7 98.9 100.0 98.4 Rio Grande do Sul 90.0 87.0 88.0 86.0 Total 77.5 71.3 75.0 70.3 Cotton crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 Piaui 5.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 Bahia 32.0 20.0 43.0 21.6 Mato Grosso 2.4 0.8 2.5 0.9 Mato Grosso do Sul 22.0 10.0 45.0 16.6 Goias 45.0 5.0 54.0 21.2 Minas Gerais 33.0 16.0 38.0 13.4 Total 10.1 5.3 12.2 5.8 — Conab Harvesting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Wheat crop, 2025 Goias 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Minas Gerais 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Bahia 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Rio Grande do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 96.2 Parana 100.0 99.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 93.0 74.0 100.0 85.0 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 99.7 98.0 100.0 98.7 — Conab Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Indonesian waste oil supply to fall in 2026

15/12/25
News
15/12/25

Viewpoint: Indonesian waste oil supply to fall in 2026

Singapore, 15 December (Argus) — Indonesia's implementation of a 50pc biodiesel (B50) blend mandate and ongoing palm plantation seizures may raise palm oil prices and reduce global waste oil supply, likely keeping palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil prices supported in 2026. The country raised its biodiesel blend target by 5pc to 40pc starting from February 2025 and is targeting another 10pc increase to 50pc by the second half of 2026 . The higher blending mandate would lower total palm oil exports by about 11-12pc in 2026 compared with 2024 and 2025, Indonesian agriculture ministry official Baginda Siagan said at the 21st Indonesian palm oil conference (IPOC2025) in November. This would likely support an increase in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, industry analysts said. Prices of CPO and palm-based waste oil like Pome oil are linked because market participants historically priced Pome oil at a set discount to CPO values, and they are both feedstocks for biofuel production. But waste oil export values have mostly been at a premium to CPO this year due to Indonesia's move to suspend exports of unprocessed Pome oil and used cooking oil (UCO) since 8 January , tightening the global supply of waste oils. Indonesia has yet to resume issuing export permits. The restrictions have since driven exporters to explore refining Pome oil for exports. Refined Pome oil exports totalled 440,000t in January-November, according to Kpler data. No refined Pome oil was shipped in 2024 prior to the export pause because exporters directly shipped unrefined material. Refined Pome oil has lower metals and impurities than unprocessed material and can be used for hydrotreating to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil or hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) with less processing than crude Pome oil. Argus launched the refined Pome oil fob Indonesia assessment on 15 October to reflect the value in this emerging export market, and it has since been priced above rival regional biofuels feedstock assessments. Indonesia's export pause was a key factor driving up waste oil prices in the region to three-year highs in September ( see chart ). The duration of Indonesia's ban on crude Pome oil and UCO exports remains uncertain, but the government may be tempted to maintain restrictions to keep more feedstocks available to expand domestic biofuels production. This would continue to limit seaborne supply and support prices on a fob basis. Speaking at IPOC2025, Indonesia's palm plantation fund (BPDP) head suggested exploring alternative waste feedstocks such as UCO for use in the B50 programme to reduce Indonesia's reliance on CPO as biodiesel feedstock. State-owned Pertamina is already trialling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production through co-processing UCO at its Cilacap refinery since the second quarter of 2025, and shipped about 32,000 litres of UCO-based HEFA-SPK in its first shipment in August . The country is targeting the production of 1mn kilolitres/yr SAF by 2030 . Plantation seizures may squeeze CPO output Palm oil production in Indonesia may be squeezed by the government's ongoing efforts to reclaim plantation lands it said were illegally acquired this year. The Indonesian government in January formed a forestry task force for this purpose and reclaimed over 3.3mn hectares of plantation land by August, according to its website. The land will be transferred to and managed by state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara, which was set up in February to oversee the confiscated land. Agrinas has been recruiting staff to operate its plantation business but the availability of harvesters still poses a challenge, it said in a press release on 1 December. Many in the sector expect the change in land management to reduce plantation efficiency starting in 2026. But the extent of yield and production losses caused by the land seizures remains uncertain, said industry analyst Thomas Mielke at IPOC2025. He estimated palm oil output in the country may decline to 49mn t in 2026 from 49.4mn t in 2025. Ministry officials at IPOC2025 did not comment on the ongoing palm plantation seizures. The collection and export of Pome oil from mills may also fall on the back of fewer fresh fruit bunches harvested from oil palm plantations due to the land seizures. Less CPO available for processing into palm olein for domestic cooking oil could also cause UCO supply to shrink. Traceability concerns continue to threaten demand Meanwhile, concerns surrounding Pome oil traceability have continued among European buyers this year, prompting some EU Member States including Portugal , Germany and Ireland to disincentivise Pome oil usage in their biofuels mandates. Most recently in October, the Dutch emissions authority (NEa) said that it will investigate the international Pome oil supply chain with a focus on "fraud risk", and that any findings could be used in policy recommendations. European Pome oil demand is currently expected to remain stable in the near-term at around 1.9mn t/yr, according to Argus Analytics, but removal of policy support by more markets in the new year could tip the balance. Higher demand for Annex IX Part A feedstocks under the RED III may drive other EU countries to absorb Pome oil volumes diverted from markets that have chosen to disincentivise the feedstock by removing it from the classification. By Malcolm Goh Asian waste oil prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — Industrial shippers of commodities like grain and petrochemicals want federal regulators to widen the scope of proposed rules that would require Class I railroads to report more data on their on-time service performance. US rail regulator the Surface Transportation Board (STB) in September put the industry on notice that it intends to issue rules to require that each of the six biggest railroads, including Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, report two new categories of performance data to the agency. The first would benchmark railroads' shipments against their original estimated time of arrival (OETA) and the second would measure "industry spot and pull" data, or ISP, to determine whether shipments are picked up and delivered within their planned service window. The board action aims to address rail shippers' long-running concerns that unpredictable rail service is a wild card in their supply chains, as many shippers rely nearly completely on rail to get their goods to market. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), an industry group that lobbies for US refiners and petrochemical manufacturers, applauded the STB for working to address "chronic freight rail service failures." The OETA is meant to track a carrier's targeted arrival time when it dispatches a cargo and then flag the percentage of weekly shipments that reach their destinations no later than 24 hours after an intended target, the STB said in its proposal. The AFPM, whose members include companies like Dow, Occidental Chemical and Ineos who collectively ship about 2.5mn carloads a year, said OETA data should be broken out by region, terminal, and corridor "to reveal localized bottlenecks often masked by system averages." As proposed, the STB's OETA measurement would apply to manifest train service, where trains haul an assortment of railcar types, and not to unit trains, which exclusively haul one railcar type or bulk commodity, such as coal, grain or crude. Grain shippers and the US Department of Agriculture disagreed with the STB's decision to exclude unit train shipments from the OETA measurement. The National Grain and Feed Association, whose members include Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and other biofuels makers, said that late unit train deliveries of commodities like grain, ethanol or coal "can result in proportionally greater harm to the shipper/receiver" than smaller manifest shipments. The USDA agreed that unit train shipments should be included in the OETA measurement, and pointed out that about 75pc of US railed corn and soybean shipments in 2023 traveled in trains hauling more than 75 railcars, which would not be captured by manifest shipment data. Demand for agricultural products is highly seasonal, and missed delivery windows "can halt processing lines, disrupt export programs, and force shippers to carry excess private car inventory to buffer uncertainty," the agency said. The Association of American Railroads (AAR), which lobbies on behalf of Class I railroads, pushed back on industry requests to widen the OETA to include unit train shipments, and told the STB that several railroads do not currently generate the metrics. Adding the reporting requirements "would add regulatory burden, waste resources, and misrepresent service on the network," the AAR said. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

10/12/25
News
10/12/25

US fuel groups eye compromise in E15 talks

New York, 10 December (Argus) — Major US fuel groups agree on the framework for a bill that would authorize a higher ethanol blend in gasoline and revamp a separate program requiring biofuel blending. But there is more work ahead before a final deal can be reached, sources told Argus . The American Petroleum Institute withdrew support earlier this year for a slimmer bill allowing year-round sale of gasoline blends with 15pc ethanol (E15), kickstarting a new round of negotiations. The group has since been pitching the White House and biofuel groups on a larger bill that would both allow E15 and restrict small refiners' ability to skirt biofuel quotas. The oil group, ethanol advocates and fuel retailers last week publicly endorsed the general framework of a bill to allow year-round E15 and limit small refinery blending exemptions, and negotiations are ongoing. The issue has the attention of President Donald Trump, who asked a farmer at a White House event this week if E15 would be "a big deal". The US requires oil companies to annually blend biofuels, while allowing small refiners to seek hardship exemptions. Sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are limited in the summer due to smog rules. Whether the groups can compromise and persuade Congress to act will shape crop demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices in the coming years. Past proposals to legalize E15 year-round, a longtime priority for the ethanol industry, have failed. The idea The American Petroleum Institute's pitch for reining in exemptions is to reduce the number of eligible companies and to make it harder for them to prove distress, according to five people familiar with the group's lobbying. A Trump administration plan that would require refiners without exemptions to blend more biofuels to compensate for refiners with exemptions has raised the stakes of the debate and riled larger oil companies. The oil group has floated restricting exemptions to companies with limited collective refining capacity, excluding larger enterprises like Delek that own multiple smaller units. The group has also proposed scrapping a Department of Energy hardship scoring system that has yielded unpredictable results over the years and that a 2022 Government Accountability Office study found was "critically flawed". Instead, refiners would have to prove that hardship stems directly from the biofuel program, and regulators could offer "proportional" exemptions based on the evidence, three of the people said. The US currently waives either all or half of the blend mandates for refiners that prove hardship. The Trump administration this year granted dozens of requests for exemptions from prior-year mandates, and more petitions are pending. More work ahead While these ideas address longstanding concerns from biofuel and crop groups that waivers curb demand for their products, the American Petroleum Institute also wants to permanently bar regulators from requiring other oil companies offset biofuel volumes lost to exemptions — a tougher sell in the Farm Belt. Another concern is timing. The American Petroleum Institute initially pushed for the exemption changes and ban on redistributing biofuel obligations to take effect next year. But some energy lobbyists want a delay until 2028, fearing that immediate changes could delay the Trump administration's work to finalize new biofuel blend mandates, three people said. New quotas for 2026 and 2027 are already late. Oil interests outside the American Petroleum Institute could also push back if negotiations advance. Refiners so far have been divided. Some want to protect their ability to win lucrative exemptions, while others have long taken issue with special rules for their competitors and hotly oppose Trump's plan to make them blend more biofuels to compensate. Even if the groups reach a deal, convincing Congress is its own challenge. An E15 proposal last year was pulled out of a larger spending package at the last minute , and farm-state lawmakers have been unsuccessful more recently in their efforts to add E15 to a defense bill. One option lobbyists have eyed is adding any new E15 agreement to legislation to fund the government after 30 January. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, said that it "continues to have serious discussions with multiple stakeholder groups and we are encouraged by the progress of those conversations". The American Petroleum Institute and ethanol industry group Growth Energy declined to comment. The Environmental Protection Agency said it is "committed to strengthening American energy security and supporting American farmers" but noted that changing rules around E15 and small refinery exemptions "requires an act of Congress". It is not clear how much more ethanol drivers would burn if the US permitted year-round E15. Most gas stations do not currently offer the blend, which advocates blame on regulatory hurdles deterring retailers from investing in new infrastructure. Rising vehicle fuel efficiency and electric vehicle sales have also cut into liquid fuel demand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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