Australia’s cattle herd to remain at 30mn head in 2025

Market: Agriculture
13/03/25

Australia's cattle herd is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous year in June, while record beef production is forecast in the 2025 calendar year, according to Meat and Livestock Australia projections.

The cattle herd is expected to shrink slightly to 30.1mn head in June 2025 from 30.6mn head in June 2024, partly because of high slaughter rates and cattle turn off — finished cattle sent for processing or export — in southern states. MLA estimates the national herd will continue to drop from its June 2023 size, and further declines are expected in the coming years as turn off increases to manage carrying capacity, which is the stock level that can be supported by pastures over time. The June 2027 herd is pegged at 28.8mn head, 6pc below June 2023.

Beef production is set to reach a new record high of 2.6mn t carcass weight equivalent (cwe) in the 2025 calendar year, breaking the previous record in 2024, and supported by high slaughter rates. Cattle slaughter is forecast to rise by 3pc on the year to 8.5mn head in 2025.

Live exports are forecast to rise to 803,000 head in 2025, as the late onset of the northern wet season supported cattle supply.

Dryer seasonal conditions in southern states are expected to support cattle turn off into June. A dry outlook for March-May 2025 could lift the number of cattle sent to live export, feedlots, or for processing in central Queensland, despite a mostly favourable 2024-25 northern wet season so far.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast the chance of rainfall exceeding the median rainfall in March-May to be less than half for most of central and northern Queensland, although more recent modelling is slightly more favourable. Further, much of Queensland's grazing areas received at least 25mm in the week to 12 March, according to BoM data.

By Edward Dunlop

Australia Cattle Industry forecasts
	unit	2025	2024	y-o-y ±	y-o-y %

Herd Size (30 June)	000 head	30,145	30,561	-416	-1
Cattle slaughter	000 head	8,535	8,304	231	3
Beef production	'000t cwt	2,624	2,571	53	2
Live exports	000 head	803	747	56	7
Beef exports	'000t cwe	2,035	1,972	63	3
- MLA

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