Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update

Market: Metals, Oil products
09/04/25

Adds details from earnings call throughout.

Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty.

"Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call.

Delta said it hoped the growing US tariff war with the world would be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee.

"If you start to put a 20pc incremental cost on top of an aircraft, it gets very difficult to make that math work," chief executive Ed Bastion said in an earnings call today.

In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, Bastion said.

Delta expects revenue in the second quarter of 2025 to be either 2pc higher or 2pc lower from the year earlier period with continued resilience in premium, loyalty and international bookings offsetting softness in domestic and standard flights.

Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners were implemented on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes went into effect today, although at midday Wednesday he announced a 90-day pause on most of the higher tariffs, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports even higher.

The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024.

Confidence craters in 1Q

Corporate travel started the year with momentum, but a reduction in corporate confidence stalled growth in February and March, Delta said. For the first quarter, corporate sales were up by low-single digits compared to the prior year, with strength led by the banking and technology sectors.

The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period.

Delta said it has seen "a significant drop off in bookings" out of Canada amid the trade disputes with that country which started earlier than the broader US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mexico is "a mixed bag," the company said.

Delta is considering reducing capacity levels in Mexico and Canada in the future.

The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024.

By Eunice Bridges

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29/04/25

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

Madrid, 29 April (Argus) — Spanish oil companies Repsol and Moeve are restarting refineries and petrochemical plants after they were halted by a massive power cut across Spain and Portugal yesterday, 28 April. Power has returned to Repsol's five Spanish refineries, which have a combined 890,000 b/d of capacity, and its two petrochemicals plants in Tarragona and Puertollano, as well as Moeve's 464,000 b/d of refining capacity and two petrochemicals plants in southern Spain. Facilities are "restarting progressively" after power was restored from late on 28 April, according to the companies. They declined to say when they expect production to return to levels prior to the outages. A momentary and as-yet-unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid of over 10GW at around 12.30 CET (10:30 GMT) caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal yesterday, shutting down industrial complexes . The outage followed a localised and unexplained loss of power in Cartagena southern Spain on 22 April which shut down Repsol's 220,000 refinery for several days, the company confirmed. Portugal's Galp has not yet responded to requests for confirmation that its 226,000 b/d Sines refinery in southern Portugal halted yesterday, although one worker at the facility confirmed to Argus that the refinery is restarting now after a "total shutdown" following the power cut. BP said operations at its 108,000 b/d Castellon refinery in eastern Spain "have not been affected by the power outage" but the facility did "activate an emergency response plan" and is working "closely with local authorities to manage the situation." Spain's dominant oil product pipeline and storage operator Exolum, whose facilities connect refineries and ports, and deliver to service stations, said its infrastructure is working "normally" today after yesterday's disruption, adding that it managed to supply essential services and airports with fuel throughout the blackout. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which has limited hydrocracking capacity and no major petrochemicals units, took just two days to return to prior production levels after a power outage caused a total shutdown in 2016. Any recovery to normal functioning of a plant could take longer depending on the configuration of a particular refinery, whether any damage to units occurred and whether any petrochemical units were affected. Airport operations Aena — the firm that operates 48 Spanish airports — said that all airports in its network had fully resumed operations as of Tuesday morning. Airlines including Iberia, AirEuropa and Easyjet expect all flights to operate as scheduled today. The power outage halted operations at airports in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and southern France. Morocco's National Airports Office (Onda) announced that check-in and boarding procedures have been fully restored at all airports in the country. Around 500 flights were cancelled in Spain and Portugal, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, after deducting double-counted flights between the two countries. Lisbon airport was the worst hit, with 45pc of departures cancelled, as well as about 30pc of departures at Seville airport. Around 50 flights each were grounded at Madrid and Barcelona airports — Spain's busiest. By Jonathan Gleave and Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK's Grangemouth refinery stops processing crude

29/04/25

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29/04/25

UK's Grangemouth refinery stops processing crude

London, 29 April (Argus) — The Petroineos joint venture's 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland has stopped processing crude and the company will now import transport fuels to meet demand, it said today. The move ends more than 70 years of refining at Grangemouth, and around 400 workers will lose their jobs. The closure removes 13pc of the UK's refining capacity, which will probably increase the country's reliance on imported refined products. Petroineos — a joint venture between PetroChina and UK-based Ineos — said in November 2023 it would close the refinery in spring this year, later deciding to repurpose the site to an import and distribution terminal. It said today it has invested £50mn ($67mn) in this. Petroineos rejected a call from UK labour union Unite for the refinery to be converted into a a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. London has said it would provide £200mn for investment in clean energy at the Grangemouth site, which it hoped would unlock private sector funds. Unite today said "for all the talk, nothing has been done", and said the closure was because the UK and Scottish governments "have effectively allowed China to shutdown Scotland's capacity to refine fuel". Slow death UK refinery output dropped to a 17-month low in March, reflecting Grangemouth's gradual drop in run rates ahead of processing its final barrel. The effect on national fuel balances has already been felt, with UK gasoil imports at an almost six-year high of 1.484mn t in April, and net gasoline exports the lowest on record at 65,000t, according to the country's latest submission to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi). The Grangemouth closure is one of three major refinery shutdowns planned this year in Europe. In Germany, Shell began to close its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in March , and BP plans to remove a third of the crude distillation capacity at its 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen site this year . This removal of 400,000 b/d of capacity represents around 3pc of Europe's total. This year's plant closures are widely expected to exacerbate a supply squeeze of middle distillates on the continent, while failing to address a growing gasoline supply overhang exacerbated by the ramp-up of production from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Further unplanned European refinery closures are anticipated by market participants as product margins slide from post-pandemic highs and elevated overheads squeeze operating profits. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japanese ferrous scrap exports remain strong in March

29/04/25

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29/04/25

Japanese ferrous scrap exports remain strong in March

Shanghai, 29 April (Argus) — Japan's ferrous scrap exports dipped slightly in March, but overall volumes remained high on weaker domestic scrap demand in Japan. Exports totalled 645,000t, down by 3pc from February, but still 25pc higher than a year earlier, according to Japan's customs data. Total exports in the first quarter rose by 17pc on the year to 1.87mn t. Shipments to South Korea continued to decline and local mills faced pressure from low-priced steel imports and a sluggish construction sector. South Korean mills were largely focused on domestic purchasing and fulfilling long-term contracts with Japanese suppliers, and avoided spot purchases, according to market sources. Vietnam remained Japan's largest scrap buyer, with volumes rising by 23pc on the year to 839,000t in the first quarter of 2025. Scrap and steel demand in Vietnam rebounded as construction activity picked up after the lunar new year and steelmakers entered the seaborne market to restock. Exports to Bangladesh tripled in January-March compared with 2024, signalling strong growth potential in south Asia. Shipments to India also surged, rising from 10,663t in January-March 2024 to 61,693t in 2025. Japanese suppliers increasingly targeted new markets in the face of weakening demand from traditional export destinations. Japanese scrap exporters are expected to stay active in overseas markets on weakening domestic demand. Japan's ministry of economy, trade and industry (Meti) forecasts ordinary steel demand from the construction sector to fall to 3.9mn t in April-June, a 2.4pc decline on the year. Japan's ferrous scrap exports t Country Mar-25 m-o-m % ± y-o-y % ± Jan-Mar y-o-y % ± Vietnam 287,684 -4.2 37.0 838,562 22.6 South Korea 111,958 -4.3 -28.6 353,564 -24.7 Bangladesh 102,276 0.1 133.7 274,023 200.4 Taiwan 63,150 25.2 78.7 142,811 1.5 Others 80,183 -15.7 14.5 257,706 20.7 Total 645,251 -3.0 25.1 1,866,667 16.7 Source: Japan customs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesia imposes new nickel royalty rates

29/04/25

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29/04/25

Indonesia imposes new nickel royalty rates

Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — The Indonesian government has implemented new royalty rates, also known as the non-tax revenue or Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) for nickel products, effective from 26 April. Some of the effective royalty rates were slightly adjusted from the previous proposal on 8 March. The PNBP royalty rate for nickel ore remained the same as the proposal, which was revised from a fixed 10pc to a range of 14-19pc, depending on the Harga Mineral Acuan (HMA) nickel price — the reference price for nickel ore. Implemented nickel pig iron (NPI) royalty rates were also as proposed at 5-7pc, depending on the HMA, from a flat rate of 5pc. The Indonesian government set the new royalty rate for ferronickel at 4-6pc, a slight drop from the proposed 5-7pc but an increase from the previous fixed 2pc. Royalty rates of nickel matte were similarly imposed lower at 3.5-5.5pc, down from the proposed 4.5-6.5pc but higher than the previous 2-3pc. Royalty rates for nickel mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) were newly introduced at a flat rate of 2pc. The new royalty rates are expected to increase production costs in the longer term but is likely to have limited immediate impact on prices. The nickel industry and government are in ongoing discussions over profitability concerns and possibility of delaying the implementation, but other details could not be confirmed. Nickel royalty rates HMA nickel ($/t) Proposal on 8 March (%) Implemented rates (%) Nickel ore <18,000 14.0 14.0 18,000 < 21,000 15.0 15.0 21,000 < 24,000 16.0 16.0 24,000 < 31,000 18.0 18.0 ≥ 31,000 19.0 19.0 NPI <18,000 5.0 5.0 18,000 < 21,000 5.5 5.5 21,000 < 24,000 6.0 6.0 24,000 < 31,000 6.5 6.5 ≥ 31,000 7.0 7.0 Ferronickel <18,000 5.0 4.0 18,000 < 21,000 5.5 4.5 21,000 < 24,000 6.0 5.0 24,000 < 31,000 6.5 5.5 ≥ 31,000 7.0 6.0 Nickel matte <18,000 4.5 3.5 18,000 < 21,000 5.0 4.0 21,000 < 24,000 5.5 4.5 24,000 < 31,000 6.0 5.0 ≥ 31,000 6.5 5.5 MHP Flate rate - 2.0 Source: Indonesian government Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s Fortescue lifts iron ore sales in Jan-Mar

29/04/25

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29/04/25

Australia’s Fortescue lifts iron ore sales in Jan-Mar

Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — Australian metal producer Fortescue shipped 46mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) of iron ore on a 100pc basis in January-March, up by 6.5pc on the year, despite facing weather challenges. Fortescue left its export guidance for the 2025 financial year ending 30 June unchanged at 190mn-200mn wmt of ore, including 5mn-9mn wmt of magnetite concentrate from its Iron Bridge mine, in its January-March quarterly report on 29 April. The company sold 143mn wmt of ore, including 4.7mn wmt of Iron Bridge magnetite, in the nine months to 31 March. Fortescue increased its shipments across every product category on the year in January-March (see table) , because of the partial ramp-up of Iron Bridge and an ore car derailment in January-March 2024. These factors offset the impact of multiple cyclone-related port disruptions in Western Australia (WA) over January-February. Fortescue's Iron Bridge magnetite sales tripled on the year but remained flat on the quarter in January-March. The company is reviewing the 22mn t/yr mine's ramp-up schedule and will announce a plan to reach full capacity by late June. Fortescue originally planned to increase Iron Bridge's output to capacity by September, before it in February backed away from that date. The company improved ore processing circuits at the mine during the last quarter, replacing the lining of air classifiers, Fortescue told investors on 29 April. Fortescue's iron ore fines products accounted for 55pc of its total sales in January-March, down slightly from 56pc a year earlier. Iron ore fines tend to be less valuable than similarly graded iron ore lumps, as they require additional processing. Fortescue's iron ore cash costs decreased by 7pc from $18.93/wmt a year earlier to $17.53/wmt, on the back of mine performance improvements. The company left its cash cost guidance for the 2025 financial year unchanged at $18.50-19.75/wmt. Fortescue's cash costs hovered in the upper end of its guidance over the first half of the 2025 financial year, reaching $19.20/wmt. Many of Fortescue's WA competitors experienced sales declines in January-March, because of cyclone-related disruptions. WA iron ore shipments from global metals firm BHP and UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto declined by 7.8pc and 18pc on the year, respectively, during the quarter. Argus ' iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price has been falling since late-January. It was last assessed at $99.10/t on 28 April, down from $105.25/t on 31 January. By Avinash Govind Fortescue Shipments by Product mn wmt Jan-Mar '25 Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '24 Jul-Mar '25 Jul-Mar '24 y-o-y Change (%) YTD Change (%) Iron Bridge Concentrate 1.5 0.5 1.5 4.7 0.6 200.0 683.0 West Pilbara Fines 3.4 3.0 3.6 10.6 11.6 13.0 -8.6 Kings Fines 4.0 3.9 4.1 11.8 11.2 2.6 5.4 Fortescue Blend 17.0 17.0 18.0 53.0 58.0 3.0 -10.0 Fortescue Lump 1.8 1.6 1.9 5.8 6.1 13.0 -4.9 Super Special Fines 18.0 18.0 20.0 58.0 50.0 2.9 15.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - -100.0 Total 46.0 43.0 49.0 143.0 138.0 6.5 3.8 Fortescue Argus' iron ore cfr Qingdao prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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