Hafnium demand is projected to increase steeply in the next five years, but supply will only be able to increase in kind if producers make the necessary operational changes, delegates heard at the Minor Metals Trade Association (MMTA) conference in Lisbon this week.
Global hafnium demand could increase by nearly 40pc by 2030 to 180t, Boston-based specialty metals producer Nanoscale Powders president and founder Andrew Matheson said. The demand surge will come from sectors such as aerospace superalloys, catalysts, nuclear reactor control rods, space alloys and semiconductors.
Global supply of pure hafnium metal is currently estimated at just 70-75 t/yr, concentrated in just four countries — France, the US, China and Russia. But existing rhenium and rhenium facilities could meet the anticipated rise in demand with significant expansions and substantial investments, Matheson said, noting that some expansions are already under way and others might become viable over the next few years.
China has already increased its hafnium production to supply its nuclear capacity expansion, and there are plans for a significant increase, with one processor potentially matching current demand by aiming for 140 t/yr. There is no timeline for when this production will start, and the high volumes have brought some scepticism within the industry. That said, significant expansion in hafnium supply from China — even small volumes — could alter the market structure.
Meanwhile, France's leading producer announced in 2023 that it aimed to boost the production of high-quality hafnium and zirconium alloys for nuclear fuel components. Current production at the plant is 30 t/yr and is expected to rise to 45 t/yr of hafnium metal next year, Argus understands.
In the US, hafnium metal is produced from zirconium chemical intermediates by two producers, one in Oregon and another in Utah. These two facilities have the capacity to expand and could add about 50t in total, based on existing permits, according to Matheson.
There are several factors which could hinder future expansions, including delays in permitting procedures, constraints in physical space, waste management issues, a shortage of skilled workers and challenges in obtaining specialty materials.
Tariffs and export restrictions are likely to disrupt hafnium trade too, at least in the near term, delegates heard.
On the bright side, improving recycling capabilities will increase supply in the coming years, and it is possible that the "dehafniation" of zirconium-operating separation plants to recover additional hafnium could become more common whenever it is economically viable, according to Matheson. Additionally, finding better methods to separate hafnium from zirconium — a challenging process owing to the chemical similarities of both elements — could help alleviate the supply imbalance.
