EIA lowers summer gasoline price forecast

Market: Oil products
10/04/25

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its gasoline price forecast for the summer driving season because of low crude prices.

US retail gasoline prices will average about $3.10/USG from April to September, the lowest inflation-adjusted summer average price since 2020, the agency said in its in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The forecast is about 20¢/USG lower than EIA's previous forecast.

The agency expects gasoline prices to average near $3.20/USG in the summer of 2026 as a continuing decline in crude prices is offset by refinery closures and lower gasoline inventories.

LyondellBasell recently shut all units at its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery and Phillips 66 is planning to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery by October.

US summer gasoline prices reached a decade high of $4.67/USG in 2022, decreasing in subsequent years, the EIA said.

The agency delayed the release of the STEO by two days to consider significant changes in markets after the US announced sweeping import tariffs against major trading partners.

Crude prices have dropped sharply since the 2 April tariff announcement, even as US president Donald Trump paused the more punitive tariffs for 90 days on Wednesday.

Amid the tariffs, a core group of eight Opec+ crude producers in a surprise move last week sped up plans to gradually unwind some 2.2mn b/d of production cuts, adding downward pressure to crude prices.

The NYMEX front-month WTI crude contract was trading near $59/bl at 12:30pm ET on Thursday, down by more than $12/bl since the 2 April tariff announcement.

The modeling and analysis for the STEO was completed on 7 April. More recent policy changes are not incorporated, the EIA said.

By Eunice Bridges

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

29/04/25

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

Madrid, 29 April (Argus) — Spanish oil companies Repsol and Moeve are restarting refineries and petrochemical plants after they were halted by a massive power cut across Spain and Portugal yesterday, 28 April. Power has returned to Repsol's five Spanish refineries, which have a combined 890,000 b/d of capacity, and its two petrochemicals plants in Tarragona and Puertollano, as well as Moeve's 464,000 b/d of refining capacity and two petrochemicals plants in southern Spain. Facilities are "restarting progressively" after power was restored from late on 28 April, according to the companies. They declined to say when they expect production to return to levels prior to the outages. A momentary and as-yet-unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid of over 10GW at around 12.30 CET (10:30 GMT) caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal yesterday, shutting down industrial complexes . The outage followed a localised and unexplained loss of power in Cartagena southern Spain on 22 April which shut down Repsol's 220,000 refinery for several days, the company confirmed. Portugal's Galp has not yet responded to requests for confirmation that its 226,000 b/d Sines refinery in southern Portugal halted yesterday, although one worker at the facility confirmed to Argus that the refinery is restarting now after a "total shutdown" following the power cut. BP said operations at its 108,000 b/d Castellon refinery in eastern Spain "have not been affected by the power outage" but the facility did "activate an emergency response plan" and is working "closely with local authorities to manage the situation." Spain's dominant oil product pipeline and storage operator Exolum, whose facilities connect refineries and ports, and deliver to service stations, said its infrastructure is working "normally" today after yesterday's disruption, adding that it managed to supply essential services and airports with fuel throughout the blackout. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which has limited hydrocracking capacity and no major petrochemicals units, took just two days to return to prior production levels after a power outage caused a total shutdown in 2016. Any recovery to normal functioning of a plant could take longer depending on the configuration of a particular refinery, whether any damage to units occurred and whether any petrochemical units were affected. Airport operations Aena — the firm that operates 48 Spanish airports — said that all airports in its network had fully resumed operations as of Tuesday morning. Airlines including Iberia, AirEuropa and Easyjet expect all flights to operate as scheduled today. The power outage halted operations at airports in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and southern France. Morocco's National Airports Office (Onda) announced that check-in and boarding procedures have been fully restored at all airports in the country. Around 500 flights were cancelled in Spain and Portugal, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, after deducting double-counted flights between the two countries. Lisbon airport was the worst hit, with 45pc of departures cancelled, as well as about 30pc of departures at Seville airport. Around 50 flights each were grounded at Madrid and Barcelona airports — Spain's busiest. By Jonathan Gleave and Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

UK's Grangemouth refinery stops processing crude

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

UK's Grangemouth refinery stops processing crude

London, 29 April (Argus) — The Petroineos joint venture's 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland has stopped processing crude and the company will now import transport fuels to meet demand, it said today. The move ends more than 70 years of refining at Grangemouth, and around 400 workers will lose their jobs. The closure removes 13pc of the UK's refining capacity, which will probably increase the country's reliance on imported refined products. Petroineos — a joint venture between PetroChina and UK-based Ineos — said in November 2023 it would close the refinery in spring this year, later deciding to repurpose the site to an import and distribution terminal. It said today it has invested £50mn ($67mn) in this. Petroineos rejected a call from UK labour union Unite for the refinery to be converted into a a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. London has said it would provide £200mn for investment in clean energy at the Grangemouth site, which it hoped would unlock private sector funds. Unite today said "for all the talk, nothing has been done", and said the closure was because the UK and Scottish governments "have effectively allowed China to shutdown Scotland's capacity to refine fuel". Slow death UK refinery output dropped to a 17-month low in March, reflecting Grangemouth's gradual drop in run rates ahead of processing its final barrel. The effect on national fuel balances has already been felt, with UK gasoil imports at an almost six-year high of 1.484mn t in April, and net gasoline exports the lowest on record at 65,000t, according to the country's latest submission to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi). The Grangemouth closure is one of three major refinery shutdowns planned this year in Europe. In Germany, Shell began to close its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in March , and BP plans to remove a third of the crude distillation capacity at its 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen site this year . This removal of 400,000 b/d of capacity represents around 3pc of Europe's total. This year's plant closures are widely expected to exacerbate a supply squeeze of middle distillates on the continent, while failing to address a growing gasoline supply overhang exacerbated by the ramp-up of production from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Further unplanned European refinery closures are anticipated by market participants as product margins slide from post-pandemic highs and elevated overheads squeeze operating profits. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Power outage hits Spanish refineries: Update 2

28/04/25

News

28/04/25

Power outage hits Spanish refineries: Update 2

Adds details on flight cancellations London, 28 April (Argus) — A massive power cut across the Iberian peninsula has disrupted operations at several refineries, chemical plants and airports in Spain and Portugal today. All five of Repsol's Spanish refineries have been forced to shut, a union representative for the company's workers said. This includes the 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which is operated by Repsol's Petronor subsidiary. Crews are in place, securing units at the refineries. "There is sufficient autonomy in all of them to guarantee the safety of the facilities," the union representative said. Repsol has yet to respond to a request for comment. Fellow Spanish refiner Moeve said it also has halted activity at its refining and chemical plants in the country and is using back-up power generators "to guarantee the safety and control of the system". Moeve operates the 244,000 b/d Algeciras and 220,000 b/d Huelva refineries. Its 250,000 t/yr San Roque base oils plant is also shutting down. Chemicals firm Dow said all plants at its Tarragona industrial complex in Spain have been closed. The longer the power outage lasts, the longer it will take to restart integrated sites. Refineries affected by power outages normally require a 2- to 3-day restart period. It is unclear yet whether any plants have sustained damage. Airports in both countries have also been affected, with 29pc of flights cancelled at Lisbon, according to data from analytics firm Cirium. A total of 96 flights from Portuguese airports have been cancelled today, according to Cirium, while 45 have been cancelled in Spain. Spanish transmission system operator Red Electrica and relevant government bodies are investigating the cause of the blackout. Red Electrica said power has been restored "at substations in several areas in the north, south and west of the peninsula, and consumers in these areas are beginning to be supplied". By George Maher-Bonnett, Isabella Reimi, Alex Sands and Monicca Egoy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Power outage hits Spanish refineries: Update

28/04/25

News

28/04/25

Power outage hits Spanish refineries: Update

Adds new details throughout London, 28 April (Argus) — A massive power cut across the Iberian peninsula has disrupted operations at several refineries and chemical plants in Spain today. All five of Repsol's refineries have been forced to shut, a union representative for the company's workers said. This includes the 220,000 Bilbao refinery which is operated by Repsol's Petronor subsidiary. Crews are in place, securing units at the refineries. "There is sufficient autonomy in all of them to guarantee the safety of the facilities," the union representative said. Repsol has yet to respond to a request for comment. Fellow Spanish refiner Moeve said it has also halted activity at its refining and chemical plants in the country and is using back-up power generators "to guarantee the safety and control of the system". Moeve operates the 244,000 b/d Algeciras and 220,000 b/d Huelva refineries. Its 250,000 t/yr San Roque base oils plant is also shutting down. Chemicals firm Dow said all plants at its Tarragona industrial complex in Spain have been closed. The longer the power outage lasts, the longer it will take to restart integrated sites. Refineries affected by power outages normally require a 2-3 day restart period. It is unclear yet if any plants have sustained damage. Spanish transmission system operator (TSO) Red Electrica and relevant government bodies are investigating the cause of the blackout. Red Electrica said power has been restored "at substations in several areas in the north, south and west of the peninsula, and consumers in these areas are beginning to be supplied". By George Maher-Bonnett, Isabella Reimi, Alex Sands and Monicca Egoy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Power outage hits Spanish refineries

28/04/25

News

28/04/25

Power outage hits Spanish refineries

London, 28 April (Argus) — A massive power cut across the Iberian peninsula has disrupted operations at several refineries in Spain today, sources told Argus. Spanish firm Repsol's Petronor subsidiary halted all units at its 220,000 Bilbao refinery earlier because of the power cut, with black smoke released as part of the security stoppage, market participants said. Shutdowns are also under way at Moeve's 250,000 t/yr San Roque base oils plant and at Repsol's 135,000 b/d La Coruna refinery, sources said. Flaring has been seen at Repsol's 180,000 b/d Tarragona refinery as a result of a response system being activated at the site, according to petrochemical sources. Moeve and Repsol have yet to respond to a request for comment. "The refineries need to be brought to a safe state," a trade union representative for Repsol workers said. "The crews are in place, securing the units. There is sufficient autonomy in all of them to guarantee the safety of the facilities." Chemical sites will also be affected by the power outage. The longer the power outage lasts, the longer it will take to restart integrated sites. Refineries affected by power outages normally require a 2-3 day restart period. It is unclear yet if any plants have sustained damage. By George Maher-Bonnett, Isabella Reimi and Alex Sands Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more