Brazil's 2025-26 sugar crop to near record 46mn t

Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Oil products
29/04/25

Brazil may produce a record amount of sugar in the 2025-26 sugarcane crop despite lower crushing because more feedstock is set for the sweetener's production instead of ethanol.

Brazil is set to produce 45.9mn metric tonnes (t) of sugar in the 2025-26 crop — which officially started on 1 April — a 4pc increase from the prior season, according to national supply company Conab's first estimate for the cycle.

But Conab expects 2025-26 sugarcane crushing to decrease by 2pc from the the prior season, because of unfavorable weather conditions in the months prior to the beginning of the crop.

The center-south — responsible for 90pc of national output — was hit by lack of rainfalls and high temperatures in most of last year, harming the development and growing of crops which would be harvested in the current cycle.

The planted sugarcane area is expected to reach 8.8mn hectares (ha), a slight 0.3pc rise from the prior cycle, but yields are estimated to decrease by 2.3pc to 75,450 kg/ha.

The annual increase in sugar output came because international sugar prices became more attractive than domestic ethanol prices. Both products are derived from sugarcane and production of one occurs at the expense of the other.

Additionally, Brazilian mills increased investments on sugar crystallizing capacity last year and market participants expect the results to materialize this season.

Ethanol output to fall

Brazil will produce 36.8bn l (635,180 b/d)of ethanol in the 2025-26 crop, a 1pc drop from the 2024-25 season, driven by less sugarcane-based ethanol, Conab said.

Sugarcane ethanol output is estimated to drop by 4.2pc from the prior cycle, because of less available feedstock and an estimated higher share of sugarcane directed to sugar production instead of the biofuel.

But a projected 11pc increase in corn-based ethanol production in the 2025-26 season from the previous cycle partially offsets that expected drop in sugarcane ethanol output.

Hydrous ethanol production in the 2025-26 season is estimated to total 22.7bn l, a 6.8pc decrease from 24.4bn l in the 2024-25 crop, while output of anhydrous ethanol — used as a gasoline blendstock — may rise by 10pc to 14.1bn l.

By Maria Albuquerque

Projections for 2025-26 sugarcane crop


	2024-25	2025-26	±%
Sugarcane ('000t)	676.96	663.43	-2
Sugar '000t	44.12	45.87	4
Sugarcane-based ethanol ('000l)	29,350,340	28,111,241	-4.2
Corn-based ethanol ('000l)	7,839,526	8,704,034	11
Ethanol total ('000l)	37,189,865	36,815,275	-1

Source: Conab

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