Downward pressure from US tariffs and easing supply constraints prompted a sharp price drop on the official three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in April, erasing much of the gains made through the first quarter of this year.
Prices on the LME's official three-month tin contract dipped to $31,775-$31,825/t on 30 April, down by 20pc from a three-year high of $38,125-38,175/t on 2 April, but up from a month-to-date low of $29,550-29,600/t on 9 April. This decline scrubbed much of the steady increase made over the first quarter when tin prices climbed in response to tighter supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and mining restrictions in Myanmar.
Tight concentrate supply drives 1Q price increases
Tin prices rose steadily throughout the first quarter after a major escalation in the conflict in eastern DRC interrupted supply from artisanal and industrial cassiterite mining and a major earthquake in Myanmar disrupted plans to lift a mining ban in the autonomous Wa region.
Rwanda-backed militia group M23 launched a fresh push through eastern DRC in late January, seizing control of key mineral-trading towns Goma and Bukavu before expanding west towards the town of Walikale and Alphamin's Bisie tin concentrate mine. The 25,000 t/yr capacity mine was evacuated on 13 March, raising concerns about a supply shortage and prompting a 6pc day-on-day increase in the official three-month LME tin contract. Warehouses in Goma and Bukavu that held artisinally mined cassiterite ore also were raided, with multiple containers of material having been stolen, market participants told Argus.
These supply concerns were compounded on 28 March when a 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit Myanmar. Authorities in Wa state have upheld a mining ban in the region since August 2023, but in March, they confirmed plans to roll out a licensing scheme that will allow companies to restart mining operations. The earthquake delayed these plans by a few weeks, prompting further concerns about the stability of future supply and causing another spike in the three-month LME tin contract to a three-year high.
Myanmar is the third-largest producer of tin concentrates after China and Indonesia, but most of the tin concentrates produced in the country are exported to neighbouring China for processing. Chinese imports of tin concentrates last year fell to 76,000t, from 187,000t in 2022, before the Wa state mining ban. Wa state is home to Man Maw, the largest tin mine in Myanmar.
Prices fall in April
But despite the first-quarter gains, tin prices faced strong downward pressure in April.
Tariff increases announced by US president Donald Trump sparked uncertainty about long-term demand and caused prices to fall by $8,575/t from 2-9 April, a decline of more than 22pc. Trump's April tariff announcements are expected to dampen global trade and triggered fears of an economic recession, which would weigh on demand for base metals such as tin.
And the supply constraints that triggered such strong price increases in the first quarter eased after M23 withdrew from towns close to the Bisie mine, enabling Alphamin to implement a phased restart of operations from 15 April. But the towns of Goma and Bukavu, as well as many artisanal mining sites, remain under M23's control.
Authorities in Wa state also were able to progress plans to resume mining operations, having officially released details of a new licensing scheme and meeting with Man Maw's former operators on 23 April. But it could take some months for Man Maw's production to ramp up as companies apply for new licenses, Chinese workers apply for visas and parts of the mine's underground sections may need to be de-watered, the International Tin Association said.
