Eight core Opec+ producers will meet on 31 May — a day earlier than planned — to decide July output levels, delegates told Argus.
The change has not been formally announced, but several delegates with knowledge of the matter said the new date is confirmed.
Last month, the eight countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts that were introduced in late 2023.
They had initially planned to increase their combined output by 137,000 b/d each month from April through to September 2026. But in a surprise move last month, the group opted for a sharper rise of 411,000 b/d for May — three times the planned pace — and agreed to repeat the same increase in June.
The eight countries attributed the larger-than-expected hikes, at least in part, to stronger oil demand over the summer. But delegates told Argus they were also intended to send a message to overproducing members, notably Iraq and Kazakhstan, to improve compliance.
With Ice Brent futures now holding around $65/bl — about $5/bl higher than before the group last met — and overproducing members still showing little sign of better conformity to their pledges, expectations among delegates are building for another 411,000 b/d increase in July. Those expectations were reinforced when UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on 27 May that oil demand could "surprise to the upside".
Before the 31 May meeting, the wider Opec+ group is meeting virtually today to review quota compliance, assess longer-term market trends and address internal matters. One delegate said ministers may begin discussing how to update production baselines for all Opec+ members by 2027 — a process first flagged at the group's meeting in December last year.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet first, followed by the Opec ministerial conference and the full Opec+ ministerial conference. Opec is required by its statute to hold two ordinary meetings a year, typically in the middle and end of each year. Opec+ has adopted a similar schedule.
