Opec+ has not yet agreed on the size of any increase in crude production for July, Kazakhstan's deputy minister Alibek Zhamauov said.
Delegates told Argus that a core group of eight members was leaning towards another accelerated rise in their output targets, as was the case for May and June, and Zhamauov acknowledged this possibility.
"There is some talk of a possible increase as in May ... there are no exact numbers, it might be 400,000 b/d, it might be 300,000 b/d, 500,000 b/d [or] 600,000 b/d," he said.
Last month, the eight countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts at an initial rate of 137,000 b/d and then agreed to speed up the monthly return to 411,000 b/d for both May and June.
The eight are set to decide their July production levels when they meet virtually on 31 May.
The original plan was for the group to unwind the cuts gradually by 137,000 b/d a month from April to September 2026.
The eight countries have attributed the larger-than-expected hikes, at least in part, to stronger oil demand over the summer. But delegates told Argus they were also intended to send a message to overproducing members, notably Iraq and Kazakhstan, to improve compliance.
There have so far been few signs of substantially better compliance, particularly from Kazakhstan.
"At the moment, we are not going to undertake any action on cutting output," Zhamauov said. "We have always said we would work, first of all, in the national interests. Our target for this year is to produce 96.2mn t (2mn b/d) [of crude and condensate]," he added.
Kazakhstan's crude production remained at near record levels at 1.77mn b/d in April, almost 300,000 b/d above its Opec+ target, according to Argus estimates.
