New Zealand's estimated gas reserves fell by more than a quarter last year, highlighting the need for financial incentives to improve supply, resources minister Shane Jones said on 5 June.
Proven and probable (2P) gas reserves dropped to 948PJ (25bn m³) on 1 January, down by 27pc from 1300PJ a year earlier, according to New Zealand's business, innovation and employment ministry, MBIE. The 352PJ write-down comprises 119PJ of extracted reserves and a 234PJ of downward revision of reserves by operators of existing fields.
Previous MBIE forecasts predicted that annual output would fall below 100 PJ/yr by 2029, but the latest revisions show that this level will be reached by 2026 (see table).
Oil and condensate 2P reserves were at an estimated 37.2mn bl on 1 January, down from 44.7mn bl a year earlier. New Zealand's only refinery closed in 2022, meaning the nation is now wholly reliant on oil product imports.
The Coalition government has reiterated its plans to remove the country's 2018 offshore exploration ban, put in place by the former Labour administration. Rising gas prices are putting increasing pressure on manufacturers, Jones said. TheCrown Minerals Act Amendment Billwill returns to parliament this year, and if approved it will reduce decommissioning risks, reform regulation and make exploration permit issuance more flexible, Jones added. The bill was first tabled in October.
New Zealand last month promised NZ$200mn ($120mn) to buy stakes of up to 15pc in new gas fields, as part of efforts to drive new supply.
Quarterly gas output reached a 40-year low in October-December, with major industrial users cutting production to reduce strain on the nation's power grid and gas supply.
But investors no longer have confidence in the nation because of the exploration ban, Australian independent Beach Energy chief executive Brett Woods said. Beach Energy operates New Zealand's Taranaki basin offshore Kupe gas project.
Utility Meridian Energy is urging Wellington to prepare LNG import facilities, as the expected supply shortfall will be "structural and significant".
| New Zealand oil, gas production outlook | PJ/yr | ||||||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | |
| Gas | 106.8 | 100 | 94.8 | 80.6 | 73.8 | 66.8 | 60.6 | 56.2 | 50.4 | 43.8 | 34.9 |
| LPG | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Crude/condensate (b/d) | 13,700 | 13,000 | 12,100 | 10,400 | 9,200 | 8,300 | 7,500 | 4,700 | 4,200 | 3,600 | 2,900 |
| Source: MBIE | |||||||||||
