News
06/06/25
Ethane rejection concerns heighten on export block
Houston, 6 June (Argus) — US traders and gas producers are mulling over the
implications of higher rates of US ethane rejection as the indefinite
curtailment of US ethane cargoes to China spurs fears of a supply glut of the
feedstock. Exporters Enterprise Products and Energy Transfer , the only
waterborne exporters of US ethane, announced on 29 May and 4 June, respectively,
that the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) had
ordered them to apply for licenses to export ethane to China. On 4 June,
Enterprise reported that emergency license applications for three of its
cargoes, totaling 2.2mn bl, had been denied . "News that the [BIS] doesn't
intend to issue ethane export permits suggests an increasingly dire situation,"
said one market participant. US ethane inventories stood at 63.9mn bl in March,
the latest data available from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA),
up 9.8pc versus last year, when supplies totaled 58.2mn bl. The US produced
2.83mn b/d of ethane from natural gas processing in 2024, according to annual
data from the EIA, resulting in a surplus of 500,000 b/d over its domestic
petrochemical consumption. Nearly all of this excess is exported, and about 46pc
of shipments last year, or 227,000 b/d, went to China. Large-scale exports of
the feedstock, which is used in ethylene production at steam crackers, are
relatively new. Waterborne exports of ethane began in 2016, and until that time,
excess supply that wasn't profitable to fractionate and pipe to storage caverns
at Mont Belvieu, Texas, were rejected upstream at processing plants into the
natural gas stream. Midstream operators estimated that US ethane rejection
clocked in around 500,000 b/d in 2015, when the US produced a little more than a
third of the ethane it does today at 1.13mn b/d and consumed only 1.07mn b/d
domestically. Some analysts fear higher rates of US ethane rejection going
forward could depress natural gas prices. "The recently announced ethane export
restrictions to China have raised some concerns over a potential oversupplied
domestic market, which could lead to more ethane rejection and create near-term
price pressures," on natural gas, RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Hanold said
in a note to investors. An uptick in ethane left in the gas stream also pushes
gas operators to potentially contend with a higher calorific content. Natural
gas producers have been investing in additional pipeline capacity to accommodate
growing demand for LNG exports, however, and the infrastructure is more flexible
now than it was back in 2016. "The US exports approximately 250,000 b/d of
ethane to China, and that's about 0.4bn cf/d of ethane that would need to be
rejected into the US natural gas system," according to Craig Barry, Argus ' lead
ethylene consultant. "That should be manageable for US producers, especially as
new natural gas egress pipelines come online in the second half of 2025 and into
2026." Short-term pricing From 28 May to 5 June, prompt-month Mont Belvieu,
Texas, EPC ethane fell by 19.4pc to 19.25¢/USG, its lowest point since 13
November. Ethane's differential to its fuel value relative to Nymex natural gas
at the Henry Hub turned negative on 29 May and remained negative thereafter,
troughing at -5¢/USG on 4 June, the steepest discount since 15 December 2022. A
flip to rejection by gas producers is typically indicated when ethane enters
negative territory relative to its fuel value in spot natural gas in the
Permian. Ethane's premium to spot gas prices at the Waha hub in west Texas
declined from 12.37¢/USG to 9.4¢/USG across the period, and if Waha prices
remain steady, ethane prices would need to halve to enter rejection territory in
the Permian. Major operators may also be incentivized, however, to reject ethane
into the gas stream at greater rates if prices fall below spot gas on the US
Gulf coast, according to market participants, and would need to dip below a
milder 17.375¢/USG to turn negative relative to its fuel value in Houston Ship
Channel gas, which it sits at its tightest premium to since 4 March at
1.88¢/USG. Steep declines in prompt-month ethane pricing have widened the
contango seen along the forward curve, possibly reflecting stronger sentiment
once the US trade dispute with China is resolved. The prompt-forward month carry
widened to 1.625¢/USG yesterday. June EPC ethane traded at a stronger
21.25-22.5¢/USG Friday morning, and sits at a 2.8¢/USG discount to its fuel
value relative to Nymex gas, based on intraday values. By Joseph Barbour Send
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