A group of eight Opec+ members have agreed to further speed up their plan to increase crude production, the Opec secretariat said on 5 July.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will raise their collective crude production target by 548,000 b/d in August, relative to July. This compares with previous month-on-month hikes of 411,000 b/d for May, June and July.
This pace is also four times faster than the eight's original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026.
The decision means they will have restored almost 80pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just five months. Should the eight opt for another 548,000 b/d increase for September, they will have fully unwound the cuts 12 months earlier than planned.
That would shift focus to a second layer of voluntary cuts totalling 1.66mn b/d that is being implemented by the same eight producers plus Gabon, which are scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.
The move comes against a backdrop of continued economic uncertainty, largely driven by US trade policy and a rise in geopolitical risk owing to the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war. Supply fears linked to the conflict helped push front-month Brent futures to above $81/bl on 23 June, although prices have since fallen back to around $68/bl — below where many producers prefer.
