A further expansion of the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain oil pipeline system to Canada's west coast is unlikely to be expedited by the federal government, according to the country's energy minister today.
"I don't think that's a project of national interest," Canada's energy and natural resources minister Tim Hodgson said of the potential optimization plans.
Federally-owned Trans Mountain has expressed interest in expanding capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d from its current 890,000 b/d. But the federal government does not envision it being given special consideration in the regulatory process despite a desire to diversify trade beyond the US, as the administration of President Donald Trump has taken aim at traditional partners and allies like Canada over trade and security.
The proposed expansion would be mostly accomplished by adding pumping capacity to the two existing lines that link Alberta crude producers to Pacific Rim markets and involve little new pipe being laid, suggesting this could have been low hanging fruit for the federal government.
This would be an additional increase after the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) was placed into service in May 2024, a near tripling from the original 300,000 b/d pipeline system. The system ran at 85pc capacity in the first quarter this year, according to Trans Mountain.
By week's end, the federal government will be launching a much-anticipated Major Federal Projects Office (MFPO), one that prime minister Mark Carney has touted will be a one-stop shop for regulatory reviews. Projects named to a special, but yet-to-be-unveiled, "National Interest Projects" list, will also be able to avoid certain regulatory hurdles that have mired or discouraged applications in the past.
Alberta premier Danielle Smith wants to see a separate 1mn b/d bitumen pipeline through northern British Columbia to the Pacific coast added to the list, and plans to bring a proposal forward this fall, but an oil tanker ban on the northern coast of the province has kept pipeline developers away.
The project's office and its leadership will be announced on either 28 or 29 August, Hodgson said, indicating the first projects on the short-list will be announced over the next two weeks.
To be considered a project of national interest, the government says a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of Indigenous groups, and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives.
"If there's a case to be made for optimization, [Trans Mountain] will make that case, and we'll consider through the normal course," said Hodgson following a trip to Germany where both he and Carney said Canadian LNG to Europe would be on the table.
"We heard loud and clear in Germany, today, they will be using more of it and they will be using it for longer," said Hodgson. "They will need materially more than they thought a few years ago."
This is a reversal from the government's past position on LNG. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau in 2022 infamously said there was "has never been a strong business case" for Canadian LNG to Europe.
