The timeline for a decision on the EU's 2040 climate target and nationally determined contribution (NDC) has slipped further, with decisions no longer expected at a meeting next week.
EU climate and environment ministers are now only expected to hold a policy debate on 18 September. EU leaders will discuss the issue at their summit in late October.
The European Commission and Danish EU presidency had maintained the importance of first deciding the bloc's 2040 climate target and then deriving from that the NDC, or climate plan, to 2035. That would enable NDC submission in September, in time for a major report that will be released just before the UN Cop 30 climate conference on 10-21 November. The Danish EU presidency now indicates that EU states will come to an agreement on the 2040 target and NDC "before the end of the year".
EU diplomats will, however, revert to discussion on the bloc's NDC next week, with opinions on the way forward "divergent". "It's now a bit tricky to understand how to proceed," said one.
Another official said the "vibe was clear" that EU climate and environment ministers will not achieve a general approach next week. Agreement on an internal draft sent by the Danish presidency would have set EU states' negotiating position for the 2040 climate target. New flexibilities had been added as a compromise, including the possibility of storing EU-generated CO2 outside the bloc.
Another source expected "better" from France and Germany, noting long-standing and habitual opposition to climate targets from countries such as Poland and Hungary.
EU leaders discuss the 2040 climate target under "consensus", even though it falls under qualified majority voting. Discussion are expected to examine the enabling conditions, flexibilities, and potentially the target itself.
The extra voting weight, under qualified majority voting, gives more populous France and Germany a greater say. But a diplomat said a mathematical majority out of the 27 EU states had sought to proceed with adoption by environment ministers of a general approach on 18 September.
A decision on the legislation will eventually have to be taken by qualified majority voting.
The European Parliament also has a complicated decision-making process. Chief draftsperson Ondrej Knotek is a Czech member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group. Knotek wants parliament to reject the commission's July legislative proposal for a legally binding EU-wide reduction target of 90pc greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, from 1990 levels.
