News
06/10/26
Mexico price cap squeezes private gasoline imports
Mexico price cap squeezes private gasoline imports
Mexico City, 6 October (Argus) — Mexico's private gasoline imports fell by 34pc
on the year in August as delivered gasoline prices rose by 45pc, while
state-owned Pemex's pricing structure and the government's Ps24/liter
($5.06/USG) retail agreement continued to leave private suppliers with little
room to compete. Energy ministry data show that private imports of gasoline,
combining regular and premium, fell to 105,200 b/d in August from 159,600 b/d a
year earlier. Their share of total gasoline imports dropped to 26.5pc from
36.2pc. Pemex's own imports rose by 4pc to 291,800 b/d, while total gasoline
imports fell by 10pc to 397,000 b/d. Private imports rose by 80pc on the year in
February and by 67pc in March, reaching 202,500 b/d and 190,300 b/d,
respectively. They then fell below year-earlier levels, declining by 22pc in
April and by 42pc in May. Volumes remained 33-40pc lower on the year from June
to August, indicating that the post-March decline was not simply seasonal.
Still, the January-August average was down by only 3pc, because of the high
February and March volumes. The downturn coincided with a sharp rise in the US
Gulf coast 87-octane waterborne delivered price for Mexico's east coast. The
average price climbed from $1.85/USG in February to $3.13/USG in May, then eased
to $2.88/USG in August, according to Argus assessments. The August price was
still 45pc higher than a year earlier. Private importers and terminal operators
have told Argus that Pemex's regular gasoline prices have at times been
artificially low and difficult to compete with. Terminal operators also said
volumes handled at their facilities had fallen well below customary levels as
private companies imported less fuel. Pemex partly offset the decline in private
supply. Its gasoline imports rose by 13pc on the year in May and by 42pc in
June, while total gasoline imports were nearly unchanged in May and increased by
9pc in June. That points to a shift in the composition of imports, rather than
an equivalent decline in imported supply overall, even as Pemex's refining
output has increased. The tax-inclusive cost of 87-octane gasoline delivered to
Mexico's east coast averaged Ps20.45/liter from January to 14 September, up by
8pc from the same period in 2025, according to Argus calculations. It reached
Ps21.58/liter on 14 September, close to Pemex's regular terminal price of
Ps21.68/liter. This left only Ps2.42/liter below the retail agreement before
inland logistics and retail margins. Pemex sells regular gasoline at its more
than 70 terminals at a single terminal price of Ps21.68/liter regardless of
purchase volume. Premium is priced differently across terminals and carries a
volume-based surcharge, with larger buyers paying lower increments. Private
suppliers can still compete in premium gasoline, but its market is much smaller.
Pemex's domestic premium sales averaged 143,500 b/d in January-August, down by
7pc on the year, while regular gasoline averaged 585,200 b/d, up by 16pc. In
August, premium sales fell by 15pc and regular sales rose by 24pc from a year
prior. Energy ministry import figures do not separate regular from premium, and
Pemex's internal sales do not represent total national demand. The data
therefore cannot quantify how much of the private import decline came
specifically from regular gasoline. Still, the data show private suppliers
losing share as Pemex raised its own imports and regular gasoline sales. By
Antonio Gozain Mexico's private gasoline imports fall as prices spike Send
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