New targets or new climate plans from countries, including the world's largest emitter China, are far from enough to meet the temperature limits of the Paris agreement, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society organisations (CSOs) said.
More than 50 countries announced and submitted new NDC climate plans in the lead up to a UN climate summit that took place in New York yesterday, 24 September. Around 200 countries party to the Paris agreement are due to release their 2035 NDC plans this year, and to increase ambitions on 2030 plans.
Most skipped a February deadline and a lot of plans — including from G20 members the EU and India — are missing.
"Despite of the words of [US] president [Donald] Trump yesterday… we saw every leader taking the stage [at the UN climate event] reinforce that they are going to continue climate action because it is in their self-interest," said Jake Schmidt, a senior strategic director at the International Climate, Natural Resources Defense Council (ICNRDC), an environmental group.
Most notably, China's president Xi Jinping announced the country's new target via video link, calling the energy transition "the trend of our time".
China committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7-10pc from peak levels, but without being specific on a base year. The country has yet to release its climate plan, and observers say the target falls short of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris agreement.
But some environmental groups hope China will increase the target in future rounds of climate plans, and eventually exceed it.
"While the targets we have today [from China] is not in line with what is required for the Paris agreement, I think we should see them as a starting point and with the opportunity for them to be significantly over-delivered through the clean economy development we are already seeing," said Belinda Schape, a China policy analyst at Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea).
The number of NDC submissions should continue to rise in the lead up to November's UN Cop 30 conference. But plans need to go "much further and much faster", said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres.
G20 countries Brazil, Canada, Australia, Japan, the UK have submitted their 2035 NDCs, and Turkey signalled a target without releasing its plan. G20 nations are responsible for around 80pc of global emissions.
Not on track
"We cannot sugarcoat it: these new climate plans do not put us anywhere near on track for a safe future," said World Resources Institute (WRI) chief executive Ani Dasgupta, adding the lack of ambition from most major emitters "underscores the immense political challenge countries face in transforming their entire economy".
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen struck a positive tone, even though the bloc has failed to agree on its 2035 target. She said the EU will "formally submit" its NDC before the UN Cop 30 climate summit.
The "EU will stay the course", she said, reiterating the bloc was on track to meet its target to cut GHG emissions by at least 55pc by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.
"It is a good direction of travel that we are seeing from these targets and some of the announcements from countries, but these are to be the floor, not the ceiling, for ambition", said ICNRDC's Schmidt.
Eight members of the G20 group — including India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South Africa and South Korea — have yet to release new NDCs or targets. Indonesia's president Prabowo Subianto during the UN general assembly on 23 September said his country was "shifting decisively from fossil fuel based development towards renewable based development".
Some observers deplored the lack of plans following up on calls to transition away from fossil fuels made at Cop 28 in Dubai. But "some of the good news" coming out of yesterday's summit is that around 78pc of the NDCs submitted include a renewable energy or capacity growth target, said Louise Burrows, head of government affairs at renewable energy association Global Renewables Alliance.
"We are seeing that countries are taking the tripling pledge seriously and are recognizing that renewables are not just a climate necessity but a driver of prosperity", she said.
